Interest rate assumptions and predictive accuracy of central bank forecasts

The interest rate assumptions for macroeconomic forecasts differ among central banks. Common approaches are given by the assumptions that interest rates remain constant over the forecast horizon, follow a path as expected by market participants or follow a path as expected by the central bank itself. Theoretical papers such as Svensson (The instrument-rate projection under inflation targeting: the Norwegian example. Centre for European Policy Studies Working Paper (127), 2006) and Galí (J Monet Econ 58:537–550, 2011) suggest an accuracy ranking for these forecasts, from employing central bank expectations yielding the highest forecast accuracy to conditioning on constant interest rates yielding the lowest. Yet, when investigating the predictive accuracy of the Bank of England’s and the Banco Central do Brasil’s forecasts for interest rates, inflation and output growth, we hardly find any significant differences between forecasts based on the different interest rate paths. Our results suggest that the choice of the interest rate assumption appears to be of minor relevance empirically.     

Cross-cultural entrepreneurship research: Current status and framework for future studies

Although cross-cultural research in the field of entrepreneurship is still in its infancy as a research stream, it offers important inferences for both theory and practice. Some have criticized the relative immaturity of previous survey-based studies’ methodology. In order to address this flaw, we analyze existing survey-based studies in the field of cross-cultural entrepreneurship to identify research gaps in content and methodology and then derive the most appropriate analytical approach to fill the gaps for this type of research. Finally, we present a practical framework in which to conduct sound and prudent future studies, integrating the most appropriate analytical approach, general methodological insights, and the particularities of entrepreneurship research in a cross-cultural setting.

Contextual Framing and Monetary Incentives in Field Experiments on Risk Preferences: Evidence from German Farmers

Recent studies cast doubt on the ability of abstract experiments to predict decision‐making in the field. Thus, scholars have argued for more ‘realism’ by introducing context to field experiments. Yet, such realism may work against the induced values of monetary incentives in economic experiments. It is an open question whether contextual framing works best with or without inducing values, through methods such as the use of monetary incentives. Using a sample of 146 German farmers, we compare experimentally the predictive power of a framed lottery in an agricultural context vs. using an abstract version. For one half of the sample, lotteries are incentivised; for the other half, they are hypothetical. Although risk preferences differ between treatments, all four lottery tasks correlate poorly with farmers’ real‐world use of risk management instruments such as harvest or hail insurance. Subjects who start with an agricultural framing are willing to take significantly greater risks in the lotteries. More generally, our findings cast doubt on the ability of lottery tasks to predict risk‐taking in the field.     

Determining fixed crane areas in rail–rail transshipment yards

To enable rapid container transshipment between freight trains in modern rail–rail transshipment yards efficient computerized scheduling procedures are indispensable. This paper proposes a dynamic programming approach, which determines yard areas for gantry cranes, so that the workload is evenly spread among cranes and, thus, train processing is accelerated. In a straightforward simulation of transshipment yard operations, the effect of optimal crane areas vs. equally sized areas is studied, the latter being a common real-world policy. The results indicate a remarkable speed-up of train processing if optimal crane areas are applied.     

Behavioural normative economics: foundations,approaches and trends

This article summarises the theoretical foundations, main approaches and current trends in the field of behavioural normative economics. It identifies bounded rationality and bounded willpower as the two core concepts that have motivated the field. Since the concepts allow for individual preferences to be context-dependent and time-inconsistent, they pose an intricate problem for standard welfare analysis. The article discusses the ways in which two prominent approaches – the preference purification approach and the opportunity approach – have tackled the problem. It argues that shortcomings in each of these approaches motivate an agency-centric perspective. The article presents two concrete policy proposals of the agency-centric approach. While this approach is promising, the article argues for pluralism in normative economics since an exclusive focus on agency can likely not do justice to the multifarious concerns that citizens hold.     

Forecast-error-based estimation of forecast uncertainty when the horizon is increased

Past forecast errors are employed frequently in the estimation of the unconditional forecast uncertainty, and several institutions have increased their forecast horizons in recent times. This work addresses the question of how forecast-error-based estimation can be performed if there are very few errors available for the new forecast horizons. It extends the results of Knüppel (2014) in order to relax the condition on the data structure that is required for the SUR estimator to be independent of unknown quantities. It turns out that the SUR estimator of the forecast uncertainty, which estimates the forecast uncertainty for all horizons jointly, tends to deliver large efficiency gains relative to the OLS estimator (i.e., the sample mean of the squared forecast errors for each individual horizon) in the case of increased forecast horizons. The SUR estimator is applied to the forecast errors of the Bank of England, the US Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the FOMC.