Market Reaction to Multiple Contemporaneous Earnings Signals: Earnings Announcements and Future Earnings Guidance

We examine market reactions to contemporaneous announcements of current earnings and future earnings guidance for evidence on how investors trade off relevance and reliability. Current earnings are more reliable than future earnings guidance, but future earnings guidance may be more relevant for predicting future performance. We find that current earnings are more strongly associated with announcement-period returns than concurrently disclosed future earnings guidance, consistent with investors’ relative preference for reliability. We find similar return reactions to stand-alone earnings and to earnings released with guidance. In contrast, return reactions are lower for guidance announced simultaneously with current earnings than for stand-alone guidance.     

Taxes, clientele effect of dividend and risk, return linearity

This paper extends the equivalence relationship between risk/return linearity and portfolio efficiency as derived in Roll (1977) to the case where there is differential taxation affecting investors optimal portfolio choice. Following the formulation of Brennan (1970a), the fundamental linearity relationship is derived which raises serious doubts to the testability of the extendedCAPM that accounts for the effect of differential taxation. Finally by aggregating other imperfections as well as differential taxation into a dividend yield constraint, a different version of theCAPM is derived which offers alternative interpretations of the existing empirical results on the subject.     

The accuracy of OECD forecasts

This paper examines the accuracy and properties of forecasts by the OECD for 24 countries and 8 variables. First the forecasts made in December of yeart?1 for yeart are examined, with the largest errors being for investment, industrial production and foreign balance. Next the way forecasts are revised between December and July is considered. Systematic revisions occur for Iceland, Turkey and Luxembourg. Finally the accuracy of forecasts made before, during and after the 1979 oil price rises are compared, and no evidence of a worsening of accuracy is found.     

Understanding repeat playing behavior in casual games using a Bayesian data augmentation approach

With an estimated market size of nearly $18 billion in 2016, casual games (games played over social networks or mobile devices) have become increasingly popular. Because most casual games are free to install, understanding repeat playing behavior is important for game developers as it directly drives advertising revenue. Game developers are keenly interested in benchmarking their game versus the market average, and understanding how genre and various game mechanics drive repeat playing behavior. Such cross-sectional analysis, however, is difficult to conduct because individual-level data on competitors’ games are not publicly available, and that the casual gaming industry is highly fragmented with each firm making only a handful of games.I develop a Bayesian approach, based on a parsimonious Hidden Markov Model at the individual level in conjunction with data augmentation, to study repeat playing behavior using only publicly available data. After applying the proposed approach to a sample of 379 casual games, I find that the average daily attrition rate across game is around 36.5%, with an average “play” rate of 47.9%, resulting in an average ARPU (average revenue per user) across games of around 20.5 cents. Certain genres are linked to higher attrition rates and play rates. In addition, giving out a “daily bonus” or limiting the amount of time that gamers can play each day are associated with a 17.7% and 16.4% higher ARPU, respectively.     

“Just a Little Respect”: Effects of a Layoff Agent’s Actions on Employees’ Reactions to a Dismissal Notification Meeting

For several decades, most discussion on financial fraud has centered on the fraud triangle, which has evolved over time through various extensions and re-interpretations. While this has served the profession well, the articulation of the human side of the act is indirect and diffused. To address this limitation, this research develops a model to explain the role of human desires, intentions, and actions in indulgence of, or resistance to, the act of financial fraud. Evidence from religion, philosophy, sociology, neurology, behavioral economics, and social psychology is integrated to develop and support an alternative fraud model, called the disposition-based fraud model (DFM). To articulate the model, its two primary components, disposition and temptation, are further developed and extended. Although the DFM is generally applicable to any act of fraud, this paper focuses on executive fraud. The similarities and differences between the DFM and extant fraud models are discussed. Importantly, in light of the DFM, a re-interpretation of the fraud triangle is made to improve our understanding of the human element in it. Additionally, potential implications of the model for corporate governance are discussed, suggestions for further research are offered, and the DFM’s strengths and limitations are noted.     

Framing Sustainable Consumption in Different Ways: Policy Lessons from Two Participatory Systems Mapping Exercises in Hungary

Sustainable consumption as a complex phenomenon at the boundaries of different (ecological, economic, social) systems requires theoretical approaches that do justice to its complex causality and dynamism. Participatory systems mapping offers a tool to achieve this purpose. Its policy relevance lies in its ability to include diverse views, multiple actors, and offer options for policy intervention. The research reported here applied participatory systems mapping in order to define and identify system boundaries for sustainable consumption and uncover perceived causal relationships among the determining factors of sustainable consumption. By revealing the mental models of an expert and a conscious consumer panel on sustainable consumption in general, we can shed light on the cognitive constructions of sustainable consumption and identify most important boundaries that were chosen and their implications on policy-making. The expert panel framed the boundaries as lack of sustainable consumption, while the conscious consumer panel employed a positive framing as strong communities in sustainable consumption. The two panels also differed in their focus on scale: Experts targeted the national scale, while conscious consumers concentrated at the local scale.     

人工智能将为农机带来什么?

正相较古人,我们生活在这个充满技术进步的时代,可算得上是特权一代了。几乎所有事情都要靠自己手动完成的日子已经一去不复返,现在我们生活的世界上,很多工作都可以由机器、软件和各种自动流程接管。之所以有这样的改变,人工智能(AI)功不可没。人工智能是以像人一样思考和行动的出发点设计和编程的机器,虽然诞生的时日不长,尚处于萌芽阶段,但已经成为我们日常生活的重要组成部分,并且正在改变我们     

Rare Earths in the Trade Dispute Between the US and China: A Déjà Vu

Intereconomics - The trade dispute between the US and China has reached a point where export restrictions on rare earths have become a possible means for sanction. This contribution provides a...