Developing a critical view on e‐learning trend reports: trend watching or trend setting?

Trend watching reports are an indispensable resource in the e‐learning domain. Many HRD departments consider these reports as essential cornerstones for the development of their e‐learning strategy. But what is the quality of the forecasts made in these reports? In this article, several methods of forecasting trends are discussed, resulting in a checklist to evaluate the quality of trend studies. Next, this checklist is applied to evaluate some significant trend studies. The evaluation results show that the reports do not meet basic quality criteria, such as ‘sound methodology’ and ‘objectivity’. The article concludes with some critical remarks on the role trend watching reports play in the domain of e‐learning.     

Within-person variation in affective commitment to teams: Where it comes from and why it matters

Teamwork is crucial to organizational success and commitment to teams is an important predictor of team-related behaviors. However, theorists and researchers have typically assumed that commitment levels are generally stable within-persons, increasing or decreasing as a result of substantial organizational changes. This position is at odds with the evidence of systematic and regular intraindividual fluctuations in personal attributes and workplace behaviors. We draw upon affective events theory to present a model explaining how certain events and dispositions produce vacillations in affective reactions which, in turn, are likely to create within-person variation in affective commitment to teams (WPVC_teams). We further propose that WPVC_teams enhances prediction and explanation of intraindividual fluctuations in work behavior and, interindividually, moderates the relationship between level of commitment and behavior.     

Firm Recruitment Behaviour: Sequential or Non‐sequential Search?

In the extensive job search literature, studies assume either sequential or non‐sequential search. This article introduces a novel method to test the hypothesis that firms search sequentially based on the relationship between the number of rejected job applicants and the number of filled vacancies. We distinguish between ten different search methods. For most search methods, including methods that rely on social networks and temporary help agencies, we find that sequential search cannot be rejected. However, when firms use advertising or public/private employment agencies, sequential search is rejected. Hence, we find that both forms of search are relevant for our understanding of the labour market. Further, the form of search is closely related to the search method used.     

Sustainability: The search for the integral worldview

The sustainability problem is described as a process of recurrent destabilization of societal value orientations or worldviews. These worldviews represent both value orientations with respect to ‘quality of life’ and mental maps about the surrounding world. The many different worldviews which shape society appear to be part of an overall integral worldview which can be deduced from societal enquiries and from the experiences of history and philosophy over many centuries. This integral worldview is defined by the vertical contrast between idealism and materialism and the horizontal contrast between uniformity and diversity. Due to a number of societal and psychological centrifugal forces, worldviews become one-sided and finally end in fundamentalist value orientations which are synonym with overshoot, collapse and crisis. Examples are religious fundamentalism and related wars, communism, nazism, the ecological crisis as well as the recent financial crisis.The solution to these sustainability problems has to be found in the timely recognition and compensation of the destabilizing centrifugal forces. The resulting integral worldview is synonym with ‘human dignity’. The thus defined time independent notion of human dignity defines a new ethical framework and solves the paradox between the needs of present and future generations in Brundtland's original definition of sustainable development.     

An Empirical Model of Optimal Capital Structure1

The authors provide a reasonably user‐friendly and intuitive model for arriving at a company's optimal, or value‐maximizing, leverage ratio that is based on the estimation of company‐specific cost and benefit functions for debt financing. The benefit functions are downward‐sloping, reflecting the drop in the incremental value of debt with increases in the amount used. The cost functions are upward‐sloping, reflecting the increase in costs associated with increases in leverage. The cost functions vary among companies in ways that reflect differences in corporate characteristics such as size, profitability, dividend policy, book‐to‐market ratio, and asset collateral and redeployability. The authors use these cost and benefit functions to produce an estimate of a company's optimal amount of debt. Just as equilibrium in economics textbooks occurs where supply equals demand, optimal capital structure occurs at the point where the marginal benefit of debt equals the marginal cost. The article illustrates optimal debt choices for companies such as Barnes & Noble, Coca‐Cola, Six Flags, and Performance Food Group. The authors also estimate the net benefit of debt usage (in terms of the increase in firm or enterprise value) for companies that are optimally levered, as well as the net cost of being underleveraged for companies with too little debt, and the cost of overleveraging for companies with too much. One critical insight of the model is that the costs associated with overleveraging appear to be significantly higher, at least for some companies, than the costs of being underleveraged.     

Hiding an inconvenient truth: Lies and vagueness

When truth conflicts with efficiency, can verbal communication destroy efficiency? Or are lies or vagueness used to hide inconvenient truths? We consider a sequential 2-player public good game in which the leader has private information about the value of the public good. This value can be low, high, or intermediate, the latter case giving rise to a prisoners? dilemma. Without verbal communication, efficiency is achieved, with contributions for high or intermediate values. When verbal communication is added, the leader has an incentive to hide the precise truth when the value is intermediate. We show experimentally that, when communication must be precise, the leader frequently lies, preserving efficiency by exaggerating. When communication can be vague, the leader turns to vague messages when the value is intermediate. Thus, she implicitly reveals all values. Interestingly, efficiency is preserved, since the follower does not seem to realize that vague messages hide inconvenient truths.     

Combining work and informal care: the importance of caring organisations

Population ageing and rising costs of long‐term care mean that organisations will be confronted in the future with a growing number of employees who combine paid work with providing informal care to a relative or non‐kin. Combining work and informal care successfully partly depends on job and care‐related features, but more information is needed on the importance of organisational aspects in this regard. The impact of organisational support on work outcomes (work–care balance and perceived need for job adaptations) was studied among 1,991 employed informal caregivers in 50 different organisations. Multilevel logistic regression analyses revealed that a heavy care burden decreased the odds of combining work and care successfully. Caregivers who felt supported by colleagues and supervisors, and who worked in supportive organisations had higher odds of good work outcomes. The findings imply that organisations should be explicit about their concern for informal caregivers and be particularly aware of colleagues with heavy care responsibilities.     

Human resource strategy for the new ICT-driven business context

The influence of technology developments on the content and arrangement of work is a recurring theme in many publications. Advances in information and communication technology (ICT) are reshaping internal organizational design and necessitate new types of employee capabilities and behaviour. As will be illustrated, ICT developments create a heightened level of business and market dynamics. Arguably, these dynamics affect the required capabilities and behaviour of employees even more strongly. Similarly, the way businesses are operating, and customer, supplier and business partner relationships are formed, is also affected by the rapid ICT progress. Key drivers shaping the new business context will be addressed. This paper argues that the trends and developments illustrated necessitate revision of traditionally held beliefs and paradigms. Said revision has important implications for the strategy and management of human resources, whereby the focus on employee behaviour is crucial. Two key aspects of a human resource strategy will be discussed, identified as HR alignment and HR enablement. With the focus on employee behaviour, attention should be given to the organizational context, since this context determines employee behaviour. Said context is defined by organizational culture, management practices and various organizational structures and systems. In view of the necessary organizational change associated with the developments illustrated, the importance of consistency and coherence between the elements of the organizational context is stressed. Establishing change under conditions of consistency and coherence is therefore identified as a crucial organizational competence.     

Should System Firms Develop Complementary Products? A Dynamic Model and an Empirical Test

While Nintendo develops many video games internally, Apple is only marginally involved in the development of iPhone applications. This paper addresses the question: to what extent and how should system firms be involved in the development of complementary products for their “core products”? These core products may include video consoles, electronic book readers, etc. This is a highly relevant question, because the success of core products depends strongly on their complementary products, e.g., video games and electronic books. This study proposes a dynamic model for the degree that system firms should be involved in complementary product development by considering, as contingency factors, the novelty of the core, and the novelty of the complementary products. Both novelties influence the degree to which system firms should be involved in the development of complementary products. In terms of a system firm's involvement, this study makes a distinction between the degree of integration and the degree of ownership. The degree of integration reflects the extent to which the system firm is actively involved in the coordination of the complementary product, e.g., to ensure that the complementary product is optimally aligned with its core product and that the full potential of the core product is achieved. The degree of ownership reflects the extent to which the system firm finances the development of the complementary product and therefore, the degree of formal control authority over the complementary product. This model was tested using data from a survey of 99 development projects for mobile telecommunications applications. The results reveal that integration by the system firm contributes to the performance of complementary products for new core products but has a negative effect if a new complement is developed for a mature core product. In addition, ownership contributes to performance if both the core and complementary products are new. In other circumstances, a clear effect of ownership by the system firm on performance is not found. The implications of our findings are that system firms should be strongly involved in complementary product development when they introduce a new core product, and even more so if the complementary products are new. However, they should decrease their degree of involvement over time as the core product matures and, again, even more so if the complementary product is new. The paper concludes by providing practical implications for system firms in the mobile telecommunications industry and beyond.