Analysis of the Efficacy of Public Spending on Research and Development in State Programs

This paper presents an approach to assessing the efficacy of public spending on research and development in state programs. At present, there is a need to develop a unified approach to the analysis and evaluation of the efficacy of such spending from the perspective of participants in state programs (federal executive bodies). The proposed approach does not allow evaluating the efficacy of public spending on the development of research areas assigned to the authors.     

Modeling the Interdependence of the Economy and Power Industry Based on Multiplicative Two-Factor Functions

The paper has studied the change in the electric intensity of the Russian economy over the past 25 years. Equations have been constructed that correlate the electricity consumption with GDP (GVA for key economic sectors) and investment volume. The influence of structural changes and power consumption in particular sectors, as well as the modernization of the key economic sectors on the dynamics of the Russian economy electric intensity, has been identified.     

Development and the mystification of ‘cultural factors’: One destiny: Our common future in Africa,by A S van Niekerk

In One destiny: Our common future in Africa the author relates, in popular fashion, a series of incidents which convinced him that the basic difference between black and white in South Africa is cultural deep‐seated and the cause of underdevelopment and conflict He develops a circular argument in which world‐view is taken as the root of perceptions, values and activities. The effects of experience and economic and political factors are given secondary importance. This argument cannot accommodate social change and differentiation, and the author tends to concentrate on perceptions and events which he finds morally unacceptable. He gives an unbalanced assessment and an ethnocentric interpretation of African life. Possible reasons for this type of argument are explored and an alternative which takes its departure from the interaction between experience and perception is offered     

Value Orientations, Income and Displacement Effects, and Voluntary Contributions

Identifying the value orientations of subjects participating in market or non-market decisions by having them participate in a ring game may be helpful in understanding the behaviour of these subjects. This experiment presents the results of changes in the centre and the radius of a value orientations ring in an attempt to discover if the measured value orientations exhibit income or displacement effects. Neither significant income effects nor displacement effects are identified. An external validity check with a voluntary contribution game provides evidence that value orientations from rings centred around the origin of the decision-space explain significant portions of voluntary contributions while value orientations from displaced rings do not.     

The contextual nature of the predictive power of statistically-based quarterly earnings models

We present new empirical evidence on the contextual nature of the predictive power of five statistically-based quarterly earnings expectation models evaluated on a holdout period spanning the twelve quarters from 2000–2002. In marked contrast to extant time-series work, the random walk with drift (RWD) model provides significantly more accurate pooled, one-step-ahead quarterly earnings predictions for a sample of high-technology firms (n = 202). In similar predictive comparisons, the Griffin-Watts (GW) ARIMA model provides significantly more accurate quarterly earnings predictions for a sample of regulated firms (n = 218). Finally, the RWD and GW ARIMA models jointly dominate the other expectation models (i.e., seasonal random walk with drift, the Brown-Rozeff (BR) and Foster (F) ARIMA models) for a default sample of firms (n = 796). We provide supplementary analyses that document the: (1) increased frequency of the number of loss quarters experienced by our sample firms in the holdout period (2000–2002) vis-à-vis the identification period (1990–1999); (2) reduced levels of earnings persistence for our sample firms relative to earnings persistence factors computed by Baginski et al. (2003) during earlier time periods (1970s–1980s); (3) relative impact on the predictive ability of the five expectation models conditioned upon the extent of analyst coverage of sample firms (i.e., no coverage, moderate coverage, and extensive coverage); and (4) sensitivity of predictive performance across subsets of regulated firms with the BR ARIMA model providing the most accurate predictions for utilities (n = 87) while the RWD model is superior for financial institutions (n = 131).

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Toxic hazard reduction with passive mitigation systems

A major component of the United States Environmental Protection Agency's 112(r) Risk Management Program Rule is the evaluation and control of potential public exposures to toxic chemicals. The rule requires identification and evaluation of a worst case accidental toxic release scenario, but provides for the inclusion of passive mitigation systems in modeling the dispersion hazard zones that are to be communicated to the public. These passive mitigation systems can be taken into account in the consequence modeling if they will withstand the initiating event that causes the accidental release and function as intended. This paper discusses several passive mitigation systems that can be designed as an integral part of storage or processing of highly toxic chemicals. These include, but are not limited to, optimizing storage conditions, design of secondary containment, toxic vapor generation control, and enclosure design. The effectiveness of various passive mitigation systems is evaluated using consequence modeling for case studies involving highly toxic chemicals such as phosgene, chlorine, and ethylene oxide.     

Hybrid organization structures: A path to cost savings and customer responsiveness

In order to cut costs while increasing customer responsiveness, some corporations are integrating the competitive features of small companies with the resources of large corporations. They are adopting a hybrid type of organization by decentralizing decisionmaking to the business units and centralizing administrative functions at the corporate level. This article outlines the characteristics of a hybrid corporation and describes the role of corporate staffs within five corporations that have evolved to a hybrid structure. Some first steps on the path to a hybrid structure and corresponding staff activities are also described. © 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.