纽约大学商学院 5亿人的潜在客户群

在经济衰退时期，既有消费激情又未被充分开发的客户群是什么？他们在哪？请留意遍布全球的2亿移民以及他们家乡的亲属，这是一个规模高达5亿人的潜在客户群。2007年全球移民对其亲属的汇款总额达3500亿美元，这个数字是同年OECD富裕国家对发展中国家援助总金额的3倍。在美国，拉丁裔作为最大的移民群体，购买力已经超过8000亿美元。     

Informality,Size and Regulation: Theory and an Application to Egypt

The paper shows how, when the enforceability of regulationsis size-sensitive, price competition can lock firms into informality and,thus, smallness, depending on the form of the production function. In thatcontext, exogenous "help" packages targeted to informal firms "promote"micro and small enterprises (i.e., increase their numbers) but do not"develop" them (i.e., foster their growth). The "help" only generates ashort-term span of abnormal profits for existing informal firms, and a long-term income transfer toward informal-market consumers. The model istested in the context of Egypt's micro and small enterprise sector.     

AGOA and Apparel: Who Captures the Tariff Rent in the Presence of Preferential Market Access?

The United States grants preferential (tariff‐ and quota‐free) market access to a list of products from eligible countries in sub‐Saharan Africa through the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). We analyse the increase in prices received by apparel exporters who benefited from AGOA preferences. In the presence of competitive markets, export prices should increase as much as the tariff which was previously collected by the US government. We refer to this price increase as the ‘tariff preference rent’ since exporters receive this income as the rent for their preferential status. The results show that exporters receive only one‐third of this rent and smaller exporters receive less than larger and established ones. We then provide evidence that suggests this may be due to the degree of market power enjoyed by US importers when facing African exporters.     

FORECASTING REALIZED VOLATILITY WITH LINEAR AND NONLINEAR UNIVARIATE MODELS

Abstract In this paper, we consider a nonlinear model based on neural networks as well as linear models to forecast the daily volatility of the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 futures. As a proxy for daily volatility, we consider a consistent and unbiased estimator of the integrated volatility that is computed from high‐frequency intraday returns. We also consider a simple algorithm based on bagging (bootstrap aggregation) in order to specify the models analysed in this paper.     

Advertising in streaming video: An integrative literature review and research agenda

Streaming video (SV), such as YouTube, is a new media widely used nowadays. Nevertheless, there is a lack of knowledge about advertising in SV. In view of this, through a search in the rich depository of the Scopus database, this article presents the first integrative literature review about advertising in SV. Searching every article and conference paper related to the topic published until May 04, 2020, 59 studies were found and classified into two main topics: marketing studies (35), mostly focused on evaluating or exploring advertising in SV, and computational studies (24), focusing on the development of systems for the insertion of ads into SV. All knowledge present in these studies was summarized so that readers (both scholars and practitioners) could have easy access to the main contributions and information present in each study. Moreover, future research directions in six main themes are presented through a research agenda.     

Online banking services: a meta-analytic review and assessment of the impact of antecedents and consequents on satisfaction

This paper provides a meta-analysis of the generalizations in the relationships between the antecedents and consequents of satisfaction with online banking services. In total, 118 observations were analysed, with a sample of 49,607 respondents in 39 published articles from studies indexed in ten databases (Jstor, Emerald, PsycINFO, Taylor & Francis, Elsevier Science Direct, Scopus, ProQuest, SciELO, Google Scholar and EBSCO). Specifically, for the data analysis, we used the correlation coefficient r (plus χ², f test, t test, z test and β values). The results showed that constructs related to uncertainty, as evoked by online devices, system performance, quality of device content and online banking device structures, are significant and positive antecedents of consumer satisfaction. We also found that satisfaction with online banking services promotes trust and loyalty. Finally, we also detected that the relationship between reliability, satisfaction and service quality is stronger among Western banking consumers.     

The Effectiveness of Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence from Chile

Selective capital controls tax only some components of capital flows. One of the rationales for such controls is that they increase the scope for an independent monetary policy, without taxing foreign direct investment and other long term flows. The first part of this paper offers a new framework to evaluate how selective capital controls might increase monetary autonomy, which considers two types of capital flows that coexist: the taxed and exempt flows. It is found that under free floating selective controls increase monetary autonomy, in the sense of allowing the authorities to set the path of the nominal exchange rate. But under predetermined exchange rate rules, the contribution of selective controls to monetary autonomy depends of the ability to reduce total inflows, which is an empirical matter. The second part describes the Chilean unremunerated reserve requirement (URR), a selective control introduced in June 1991 on a permanent basis, in a setting of predetermined exchange rates. This control collected substantial revenue, proving that it was relevant. An econometric model with data for 1987–1996 finds that substitution from the exempt short-term flows compensated reductions in taxed short-term flows, so the Chilean URR did not discourage total net short-term credit inflows to the private sector. This implies that the Chilean URR failed to contribute to monetary autonomy.     

A multiple regime smooth transition Heterogeneous Autoregressive model for long memory and asymmetries

In this paper we propose a flexible model to describe nonlinearities and long-range dependence in time series dynamics. The new model is a multiple regime smooth transition extension of the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) model, which is specifically designed to model the behavior of the volatility inherent in financial time series. The model is able to simultaneously approximate long memory behavior, as well as describe sign and size asymmetries. A sequence of tests is developed to determine the number of regimes, and an estimation and testing procedure is presented. Monte Carlo simulations evaluate the finite-sample properties of the proposed tests and estimation procedures. We apply the model to several Dow Jones Industrial Average index stocks using transaction level data from the Trades and Quotes database that covers ten years of data. We find strong support for long memory and both sign and size asymmetries. Furthermore, the new model, when combined with the linear HAR model, is viable and flexible for purposes of forecasting volatility.