SHAKEOUTS AND MARKET CRASHES*

This article provides a microfoundation for the rise in optimism that seems to precede market crashes. Small, young markets are more likely to experience stock‐price run‐ups and crashes. We use a Zeira–Rob type of model in which demand size is uncertain. Optimism then grows rationally if traders' prior distribution over market size has a decreasing hazard. Such prior beliefs are appropriate if most new markets are duds and only a few reach a large size. The crash occurs when capacity outstrips demand. As an illustration, for the period 1971–2001 we fit the model to the Telecom sector.     

NATIONAL INCOME, WELFARE, AND THE ENVIRONMENT

This article explores the assumptions underlying present definitions of national income in its principal uses, and considers the alterations that would be needed to allow for the inclusion of environmental quality. A numerical example illustrates the impact of alternative measures. The discussion concludes that if we want national income to conform more closely to theoretical concepts of welfare indices, then we need to include a proxy for those environmental services that would not be completely free goods if it were possible to overcome their inherent non-marketability. The least unsatisfactory proxy would be the spending on environmental protection.     

Value Creation and Value Capture Alignment in Business Model Innovation: A Process View on Outcome-Based Business Models

Industrial manufacturers are innovating their business models by shifting from selling products to selling outcome-based services, where the provider (manufacturer) guarantees to deliver the performance outcomes of the products and services. This form of business model innovation requires a profound yet little understood shift in how value is created, delivered, and captured. To address this research gap, our study examines two successful and four unsuccessful cases of this shift. We find that effectiveness in business model innovation hinges on the three process phases that unfold in collaboration with the customers: value proposition definition, value provision design, and value-in-use delivery. We also find that that success is determined by the alignment of specific value creation and value capture activities in each phase: identifying value creation opportunities—agreeing on value distribution in value proposition definition, designing the value offering—deciding on the profit formula in the value provision design, and finally refining value creation processes—regulating incentive structures in the value-in-use delivery. Our process model contributes to the literature and practice on business model innovation by providing a thorough understanding of how alignment of value creation and value capture processes is ensured, whilst paying special attention to their interdependence and the interactions between provider and customer.     

Which factors improve the performance of the internationalization process? Focus on family firms

This study aimed to analyse the impact that the financial features and characteristics of the ownership structures of international companies exert on the performance of their internationalization process, as perceived by managers, and attempted to detect differences between family firms (FF) and nonfamily firms (non-FF). In addition, the impact of these characteristics and others related to FF, such as family ownership and generation, on the perceived performance of their internationalization is analysed. Based on a sample of Spanish companies with direct investment in China, the results indicated that, from the managers’ perspective, being an FF and having lower financial leverage exerted a positive effect on the performance of the internationalization process. Moreover, the study proved that this performance was strongly and positively related to the financial results of the company, and this positive effect was even stronger in the case of FF. Finally, the findings also showed that FF with a higher involvement of the family in their ownership recognized a better performance of their internationalization process. These results will be useful for companies that are considering the value of internationalization as a strategy to improve or maintain their financial results, and they also highlight certain differences between FF and non-FF.     

A result similar to the Odlyzko's ‘Paris Metro Pricing’

The two-stage competition is investigated in which two Internet Service Providers (ISP) choose sequentially their capacities and then their prices while facing a flow of new customers who decide to belong to one ISP or the other on the basis of a comparison of access prices and of expected congestion rates. At the equilibrium of the game a vertical differentiation between the Internet Service Providers endogenously emerges: the firm which provides the larger network has the lowest rate of congestion and the highest access price. The ISP providing the smallest network (thus the most congested) earns the larger profit. It will be noticed that the spontaneous functioning of oligopolistic competition produces a result similar to the Odlyzko's ‘Paris Metro Pricing’: at the equilibrium the two competitors propose different prices and rates of congestion, the most expensive one being also the least congested.     

Price Endogeneity and Food Demand in Urban China

Price endogeneity has been ignored in previous analyses of food demand in urban China. We exploit data provided by the China National Bureau of Statistics on agricultural commodity supply shifters and use reduced‐form price equations to account for price endogeneity. Applying our unique econometric approach to the analysis of provincial‐level food demand in China, we find strong statistical evidence of price endogeneity. Models that ignore price endogeneity result in substantially biased elasticities and misleading estimates of future food demand in China.     

Examination of travel and tourism competitiveness contribution to national economy competitiveness of sub-Saharan Africa countries

The purpose of this research is to examine the influence of travel and tourism competitiveness (measured by the Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index [TTCI]) on the national economic competitiveness of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries (measured by the Global Competitiveness Index [GCI]). The aim is to identify critical factors for improving competitiveness of SAA countries from the area of tourism competitiveness. The study was conducted using the following methods: regression, cluster and grey relational analysis (GRA). Results reveal that travel and tourism competitiveness has a high impact on national competitiveness in the analysed group of countries. The study identified three homogeneous groups within SSA countries according to the TTCI pillars. The different impact of the TTCI on the GCI is determined in each of these three homogeneous groups of countries. The outcomes of this study could provide recommendations for tourism development policy-makers in SSA countries based on the results of GRA.     

Are risk‐averse agents more optimistic? A Bayesian estimation approach

Our aim is to analyze the link between optimism and risk aversion in a subjective expected utility setting and to estimate the average level of optimism when weighted by risk tolerance. Its estimation leads to a non‐trivial statistical problem. We start from a large lottery survey (1536 individuals). We assume that individuals have true unobservable characteristics. We adopt a Bayesian approach and use a hybrid MCMC approximation method to numerically estimate the distributions of the unobservable characteristics. We find that individuals are on average pessimistic and that pessimism and risk tolerance are positively correlated. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new contribution to the ‘Paris Metro Pricing’ proposal

Using the concept of the ‘Paris Metro Pricing’, we will show that, when the distribution of the capacity between sub-networks leads to any loss of technical effectiveness and when a traditional condition on the ‘hazard rate’ is checked, it is always optimal for the monopolist to subdivide his main network in as many sub-networks as there are different types of net surfers.