On the calibration of continuous subjective probability distributions

A simple procedure is presented for calibrating probability assessors who repetitively give continuous distributions rather than point probability estimates. The calibration function so derived can be used to display certain systematic bias features as well as for correcting future assessments. The need to perform calibration can often arise in single multistage inferential tasks as well as the repetitive estimation contexts and it is often necessary in both cases in order to avoid the covert dependencies which can arise between essentially independent variables because of systematic assessment bias on the part of the expert.     

INTERORGANIZATIONAL TIME‐BASED POSTPONEMENT IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN

This paper presents the results of empirical research on the use of time‐based postponement in a supply chain context using data collected from two manufacturers, a distributor, and a retailer. The analysis shows that implementing postponement at the firm level can result in the supply chain carrying more inventory. In order to achieve its full potential, postponement needs to be implemented across organizations in the supply chain.     

Development and Use of Biopesticides: Implications of Government Policy and Consumers’ Preferences

Biopesticides developed and used in the future will emerge against the backdrop of the environmental effects associated with the use of conventional pesticides and government policies designed to control these effects. In the final analysis, farmers’ choices on pesticides will be influenced by the prevailing costs and benefits of conventional pesticides and their alternatives including biopesticides. The outlook for pesticide use is complicated, though some directions can be perceived. There are a number of factors that will serve potentially to impact pesticide use which in turn will affect the development of biopesticides. These include pesticide regulation, the FAIR Act, the crops planted, the management of ecologically based systems, and consumer demand for “green” products.     

The George Washington University Forecast of Emerging Technologies: A Continuous Assessment of the Technology Revolution

A method is presented for the continuous assessment of major technological advances—the George Washington University (GWU) forecast of emerging technologies. Environmental scanning and trend analysis are used to identify emerging technologies (ETs), and a Delphi-type survey then asks a panel of authorities to estimate the year each advance will occur, its associated probability, the potential size of its market, and the nation that will lead each ET. Eighty-five prominent ETs have been identified and grouped into 12 fields: energy, environment, farming and food, computer hardware, computer software, communications, information services, manufacturing and robotics, materials, medicine, space, and transportation. Results are presented from four survey rounds covering the past 8 years, and they are compared longitudinally to estimate the range of variance. The data are also divided into three successive decades to provide scenarios portraying the unfolding waves of innovation that comprise the coming technology revolution.     

BOOK REVIEWS

The Venture Capital Cycle, by Paul A. Gompers and Josh Lerner. The MIT Press, 1999, 375 pages, suggested retail price $45.     

Is the Short Rate Drift Actually Nonlinear?

Aït-Sahalia (1996) and Stanton (1997) use nonparametric estimators applied to short-term interest rate data to conclude that the drift function contains important nonlinearities. We study the finite-sample properties of their estimators by applying them to simulated sample paths of a square-root diffusion. Although the drift function is linear, both estimators suggest nonlinearities of the type and magnitude reported in Aït-Sahalia (1996) and Stanton (1997). Combined with the results of a weighted least squares estimator, this evidence implies that nonlinearity of the short rate drift is not a robust stylized fact.