Investor protection and analysts’ cash flow forecasts around the world

We find that analysts are more likely to provide cash flow forecasts in countries with weak investor protection. This finding is consistent with our hypothesis that market participants demand (and analysts supply) cash flow information when weak investor protection results in earnings that are less likely to reflect underlying economic performance. Our results suggest that information intermediaries respond to market-based incentives to attenuate the adverse effects of country-level institutional factors on earnings’ usefulness. These findings contribute to the literature by shedding light on the institutional determinants of analysts’ research activities, and on the nature of the financial information they generate.     

Efficiency and its determinants in pharmaceutical industries: ownership,R&D and scale economy

The purpose of this article is to measure the efficiency of pharmaceutical firms and identify their determinants using Korean and American samples from 1992 to 2004. We document some stylized facts in the patterns and sources of efficiency change in Korean and American pharmaceutical firms. The evidence shows that ownership structure can substantially influence the efficiency of pharmaceutical firms. Especially, institutional ownership rate affects corporate efficiencies negatively, corroborating the myopic institutional investor hypothesis. The hypothesis is supported by both Korean and American samples. However, we find evidence that foreign ownership in Korea promotes efficiency of pharmaceutical firms. It is shown that R&D intensity is positively related to contemporaneous largest ownership rate and prior foreign ownership rate in Korean pharmaceutical firms. In contrast, little evidence is found on the relationship between ownership structure and R&D intensity in the American pharmaceutical industry. These empirical results are robust even after we check the causal links among efficiency, R&D and ownership.     

Real exchange rate behavior

Using random simulations with artificial data with identical sample characteristics to the long-sample exchange rate data employed by Lothian and Taylor (Lothian, J.R. and Taylor, M.P. (1996). The recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries. Journal of Political Economy 104, 488–509.), we show that standard unit-root tests have extremely low power over sample sizes corresponding to the recent float. The probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is false is extremely low with 20 years or even 50 years of data and only reaches an acceptable level over much longer spans.     

Estimating exchange rate dynamics with diffusion processes: an application to Greek EMU data

Recently various exchange rate models capturing the dynamics during the transition from an exchange rate arrangement of floating rates into a currency union have been derived. Technically, these stochastic equilibrium models are diffusion processes which have to be estimated by discretely sampled observations. Using daily exchange rate data prior to the Greek EMU-entrance on 1 January 2001, we develop a rigorous estimation procedure. Our estimates point to an increasing interventionist economic policy in the run-up to the Greek EMU entrance. A comparison of this econometric indication with policy information provided (ex-post) by the Bank of Greece (BoG) in its Annual Report 2000 reveals that the BoG indeed pursued such an active policy stance (so-called institutional frontloading strategies).      

When simplicity outsmarts complexity

Although there has been a marked increase in the academic study of the “posthuman” it has had a tendency to be polarized: on the one hand, certain elements of academia are mirroring popular culture in a prophetic examination of social nihilism and unfettered technological advance, culminating in the marriage of human and computer. On the other hand, some academics treat the topic as fanciful, part of a general degradation of modern culture, which in turn, leads them to ignore and sometimes even ridicule research done in the name of the posthuman.Unfortunately - and possibly as a result of this ridicule - those who are willing to write from the former, seem to have an overarching desire to do it from a scientific realist standpoint; as if it was the only legitimate position to take. The result of this has been a number of in-depth articles on the computer dynamics necessary - and the vast scientific and technological advances needed - to achieve computational parity with human neurology. But although it follows that there would be limited desire to “upgrade” the human by plugging it into something deemed “inferior”; the scientific realist perspective has resulted in the timeframe for fundamental posthuman change being one of centuries, rather than decades.In opposing the scientific realist position I will argue - using Bostrom’s example of the human computer simulation - that from a more "sceptical" philosophical position, such a device may in fact be practically on our doorstep, rather than light-years away.     

Physician acquisition: what to avoid after the deal is complete

After a hospital acquires a physician practice, relations can become strained between the parties in any of four areas: Governance and decision making. Technology. Payment structures. Emotional factors related to the acquisition.     

Prácticas de compra predatorias en las cadenas mundiales de suministro de la industria de la confección: tensión en las relaciones laborales en la India

Desde hace tiempo se viene documentando en múltiples estudios la vulneración de los derechos de los trabajadores en las cadenas mundiales de suministro de la industria de la confección; sin embargo, se ha prestado menos atención al reciente empeoramiento de algunos déficits de trabajo decente y sus causas, que el presente artículo asocia a las prácticas de compra predatorias derivadas de las crecientes asimetrías de poder. Estas prácticas, ilustradas aquí a través de las empresas indias del sector del vestido orientadas a la exportación, ejercen presiones salariales a la baja y favorecen la proliferación de formas atípicas de empleo y la banalización de la violencia física y verbal contra los trabajadores, al tiempo que aumentan las exigencias de productividad. Para frenar esta evolución, es necesario establecer mecanismos de fijación de precios que tengan en cuenta el costo que entraña el cumplimiento del principio del trabajo decente, adoptar una reglamentación estatal adecuada y contar con la participación de los trabajadores.     

A sequential Monte Carlo approach to inference in multiple‐equation Markov‐switching models

Vector autoregressions with Markov‐switching parameters (MS‐VARs) offer substantial gains in data fit over VARs with constant parameters. However, Bayesian inference for MS‐VARs has remained challenging, impeding their uptake for empirical applications. We show that sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) estimators can accurately estimate MS‐VAR posteriors. Relative to multi‐step, model‐specific MCMC routines, SMC has the advantages of generality, parallelizability, and freedom from reliance on particular analytical relationships between prior and likelihood. We use SMC's flexibility to demonstrate that model selection among MS‐VARs can be highly sensitive to the choice of prior.