Trading the forward bias: Are there limits to speculation?

In this paper we investigate whether trading the forward bias allows for economically significant excess returns. We find that bias-trading strategies can be viewed as attractive investment opportunities per se, useful diversification devices, and promising portfolio extensions for active fund managers trying to beat their benchmarks. The empirical results, which also mirror the problems arising in attempts to explain the puzzle by risk-premia, are consistent with market evidence that the bias is traded in practice. Overall, our findings suggest that limits to speculation are unlikely to provide a (stand-alone) explanation for the persistence of the forward bias.     

Long term risk sharing contracts as an approach to establish public–private partnerships for investment into next generation access networks

This paper develops an investment/pricing model for the deployment of basic broadband networks which, along with other applications, is applicable to public–private partnership projects. In particular, a new investment model is suggested to be used for finance deployment over a longer term by enabling both private and public investors to participate in the roll-out of next generation access (NGA) infrastructure. This so-called “long-term risk sharing concept” has several notable benefits compared with the traditional regulatory approach. Above all, the model enables both private operators and public authorities to share the risk of investing in NGA infrastructure. Thus the model offers a way for public authorities to achieve a timely and countrywide roll-out of NGA networks, including in areas where NGA investment would otherwise not occur.     

Future images of meat consumption in 2030

The issue of meat consumption has been a subject of interest that has been looked at from environmental, animal and human perspectives. This paper contributes to the discussion by clarifying the diversity of views with regard to the future of meat consumption. Two round Delphi expert interviews and a consumer survey were conducted in order to collect information. Five coherent future images were constructed: Traditional Approach, Business as Usual, Humans First, Wellness and Vegetarian Society. The discussion part of the paper presents possible ways of influencing meat consumption according to the holders of these different images of the future.     

Which past returns affect trading volume?

Anecdotal evidence suggests and recent theoretical models argue that past stock returns affect subsequent stock trading volume. We study 3,000 individual investors over a 51 month period to test this apparent link between past returns and volume using several different panel regression models (linear panel regressions, negative binomial panel regressions, Tobit panel regressions). We find that both past market returns as well as past portfolio returns affect trading activity of individual investors (as measured by stock portfolio turnover, the number of stock transactions, and the propensity to trade stocks in a given month). After high portfolio returns, investors buy high risk stocks and reduce the number of stocks in their portfolio. High past market returns do not lead to higher risk taking or underdiversification. We argue that the only explanations for our findings are overconfidence theories based on biased self-attribution and differences of opinion explanations for high levels of trading activity.     

The Choice of Prices versus Quantities under Uncertainty

This paper analyzes a duopoly model with stochastic demand in which firms first commit to a strategy variable and compete afterwards. We find that in equilibrium the relative magnitude of demand uncertainty and the degree of substitutability determines firms' variable choice. Firms set prices if uncertainty is high compared to the degree of substitutability and quantities if the reverse holds true. The reason is that demand uncertainty and the degree of substitutability have countervailing effects on variable choice: Prices adapt better to uncertainty while quantities induce softer competition. If no effect dominates, firms choose different strategy variables in equilibrium.     

Do VCs matter? the importance of owners on performance variance in start‐up firms

Adding to the corporate effect literature, we study the effect of owners on firm performance in a new context, that of venture capital firms (VCs) and the start‐up firms in which they invest. After discussing the effect that VC ownership can have on start‐ups, we estimate that start‐up‐specific, owner (VC), and year effects account for significant variance in performance (26.3 percent, 11.2 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively). The effects of industry and investment stage are not statistically different from zero. We also provide an analysis that separates the owner effect into two components: a selection component—which impacts investment—and a management component—which explains significant variance in performance. By examining the owner effect in a different institutionalized form of governance—that of the start‐up and its relationship to VC owners—our study also contributes to an understanding of the ‘ownership’ effect in the strategy literature more generally. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Distributional effects of imputed rents in five European countries

Most empirical distributional studies of well-being in developed countries rely on distributions of disposable income. From a theoretical point of view this practice is contentious since a household’s command over resources is determined not only by its spending power over commodities it can buy in the market but also on resources available to the household members through non-market mechanisms such as the in-kind provisions of the welfare state and the value of private non-cash incomes. In developed market economies the most important private non-cash income component is imputed rent from owner-occupied or subsidized accommodation. Employing a wider definition of imputed rent that also allows the analyst to capture income advantages among tenants living in rent-subsidized accommodations of various sorts (including rent-free or reduced-rent households), the present paper examines the differential effects of including imputed rents in the concept of resources in five European countries (Belgium, Germany, Greece, Italy and the UK). The results suggest that in almost all cases, the inclusion of imputed rents in the concept of resources leads to a decline in measured levels of inequality and poverty. The main beneficiaries are outright homeowners and households living in rent-free (or heavily subsidized) accommodation—most often older persons. The inclusion of imputed rents in the concept of resources does not lead to substantial changes in the ranking of the countries according to their level of inequality, despite widespread differences in the rates of home ownership and subsidization across the countries studied here.     

Natural resource dependence, non-tradables, and economic growth

I argue that the commonly used nominal measure of natural resource dependence – the share of exports of primary products in GNP – understates in growth regressions the negative link between natural resource dependence and per capita GDP growth. I show that using a purchasing power parity adjusted measure yields an economically much larger negative relationship between per capita GDP growth and natural resource dependence than what has been suggested by the nominal measure. Consistent with the rent-seeking literature, I show that the resource curse is a symptom of societies characterized by high levels of corruption and sluggish checks and balances on political decision-making.