Yield curve responses to market sentiments and monetary policy

Central banks recently started to target longer term interest rates. The empirical failure of the rational expectations theory of the yield curve, however, limits its applicability to monetary policy analysis. The success of agent-based behavioral asset pricing models and behavioral macroeconomic models in replicating statistical regularities of empirical data series motivates to apply them to yield curve modeling. This paper analyses how the interaction of monetary policy and market sentiments shape the yield curve in a behavioral model with heterogeneous and bounded-rational agents. One result is that the behavioral model replicates empirical facts of term structure data. Moreover, it overcomes one major deficiency of rational expectations models of the yield curve in explaining the empirically observed uncertain responses of longer term yields to changes in the central bank rate. These are explained by the behavioral model’s ability to generate different responses of market sentiments to shocks at different times which lead to a variety of interest rate responses. Further results of this paper can be used as policy advice on how central banks can target the level, slope and curvature of the yield curve by targeting market sentiments about inflation and the business cycle.     

Manufacturer collusion: Strategic implications of the channel structure

We investigate how the structure of the distribution channel affects tacit collusion between manufacturers. When selling through a common retailer, we find—in contrast to the conventional understanding of tacit collusion that firms act to maximize industry profits—that colluding manufacturers strategically induce double marginalization so that retail prices are above the monopoly level. This lowers industry profits but increases the profit share that manufacturers appropriate from the retailer. Comparing common distribution with independent (exclusive) distribution, we show that the latter facilitates collusion. Despite this result, common retailing leads to lower welfare because a common retailer monopolizes the downstream market. For the case of independent retailing, we also demonstrate that contract offers that are observable to the rival retailer are not necessarily beneficial for collusive purposes.     

Doing Away with the Sovereign: Neoliberalism and the Promotion of Market Discipline in European Economic Governance

ABSTRACT

This article proposes a critical reading of market discipline and its limitations as a mechanism in European economic governance. Consistent with neoliberal beliefs about market-based governance, the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is premised on the functioning of the government bond market as a fiscal-policy discipliner. However, the operation of market discipline requires that neither governments nor their private creditors can rely on an authority to bail them out. It, therefore, precludes the kinds of intervention by Eurozone’s supranational institutions witnessed during the euro crisis. In the post-crisis context, efforts to strengthen market discipline continue to be frustrated by the growing reliance of financial institutions on government bond markets as well as the European Central Bank’s (ECB) active participation in those markets. Having undermined the credibility of the market as an autonomous and apolitical mechanism of discipline, European economic governance struggles to come to terms with the rise of a supranational ‘economic sovereign’ in the Eurozone.     

Assessing the employment effects of the German welfare reform – an integrated CGE-microsimulation approach

The purpose of this article is to quantify the employment effects of the recent German welfare reform. The key element of this reform was to merge the coexisting transfer systems Social Assistance (SA) and Unemployment Assistance (UA) into one unified benefit (Arbeitslosengeld II – ALG II). We also consider a second reform scenario that is intended to further improve the labour supply incentives of low-skilled workers. Our methodological contribution is to use an integrated CGE-microsimulation model. In adopting such an approach, we are able to combine the advantages of microsimulation studies by accounting for the large amount of heterogeneity in terms of households’ preferences and budget constraints with the advantages of an applied general equilibrium model. The latter permits us to identify potential general equilibrium repercussions through changes in wages and unemployment. The simulations indicate that the introduction of ALG II results in a negligible increase in employment of only 45?000 individuals. In contrast, a cut in benefit levels combined with a decrease in transfer withdrawal is shown to produce somewhat larger employment effects of about 190?000 individuals.     

PanelWhiz and the Australian Longitudinal Data Infrastructure in Economics

PanelWhiz is a graphical user interface that was written for the statistical software, Stata SE/MP Version 11 (Win/Mac/Linux) or later, which allows users to extract data from complicated multi‐level longitudinal datasets in an easy and efficient manner. Specifically, Australian datasets, such as Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey, Medicine in Australia: Balancing Employment and Life, Growing Up in Australia: The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children, Footprints in Time—The Longitudinal Study of Indigenous Children and Consumer Attitudes, Sentiments & Expectations in Australia, have already been integrated into the common platform of the PanelWhiz system.     

Buying a Home with a Resale Value: Location,Location, Location*

We develop a dynamic multiregion model, where a household's choice of housing location depends on its current wealth and its current type, and involves both consumption and investment considerations. The relative strength of the consumption motive and the investment motive determines the equilibrium pattern of residential sorting. A strong investment (consumption) motive implies sorting according to household type (wealth). The model predicts that large house‐price fluctuations are associated with a low degree of sorting by type. This prediction is consistent with evidence from US metropolitan areas when income, education, and age are used as proxies for household type.     

The cost effect in third-degree price discrimination

In the presence of a non-constant marginal cost and demand uncertainty, we show that an output increase is no longer a necessary condition for welfare to increase following the introduction of third-degree price discrimination. We thus highlight the existence of an effect that might offset the well known output and misallocation effects of price discrimination. We propose a specific example where this is indeed the case.     

REFERENCE NORMS,STAGGERED WAGES,AND WAGE LEADERSHIP: THEORETICAL IMPLICATIONS AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE*

This article presents an extension of the Taylor model with staggered wages in which wage setting is also influenced by reference norms. We show that reference norms can considerably increase the persistence of inflation but that the size of this effect depends on the exact definition (e.g., external vs. internal, symmetric vs. asymmetric norms). Using data on collectively bargained wages in Austria from 1980 to 2006 we show that wage setting is strongly influenced by reference norms, that external norms seem to matter more than internal norms, and that there is a clear indication for the existence of wage leadership (asymmetric norms).     

Institutional effects in the adoption of e-business-technology: Evidence from the German automotive supplier industry

This article analyzes the adoption of B2B-e-business technology in German automotive supplier companies during the internet hype period, i.e. in the very early stage of technology diffusion. While from the outset e-business was assumed to be used by companies in order to increase efficiency and reduce costs, some previous IOS research and theoretical considerations suggest that both efficiency and environmental expectations can be important reasons for companies to implement e-business. On this backdrop, the paper analyzes the reasons for e-business technology adoption, focusing on the explanatory value of institutional factors like mimesis, coercion, and normative pressures. Theoretically based hypotheses are developed and tested using regression models with a quantitative data set of more than 1900 companies.The article tries to make an innovative contribution to the field of IOS research, first, by drawing on theories of organizational structuring — new institutionalism, social psychology, and transaction cost economics; second, variation of adoption rationales in different types of companies and different business functions inside a company is taken into account.It appears that the adoption of e-business is explained by external pressures from other customers, bandwagon effects and herding behavior during the e-business hype, and expectations and interests of professionals inside a company. In the ‘core’ areas of a firm, efficiency rationales play an important role, too. The data reveals that the reasons of e-business usage differ significantly by department and company type.