RISK ATTITUDE,PLANTING CONDITIONS AND THE VALUE OF SEASONAL FORECASTS TO A DRYLAND WHEAT GROWER*

The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility-maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894-1991 recurring in the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity. The value of the forecasting system was estimated as the maximum amount the grower could afford to pay for its use without expected utility being lowered relative to its non-use.     

Federal government policy in black community revitalization

Conclusion Federal programs have represented, at best, a series of ad hoc, piece-meal attempts to address a highly complex situation. Funding levels have been inadequate and there has never been any strong commitment to economic development on a meaningful scale. We have experienced a series of small, unconnected programs. In addition to HUD programs, so-called community development programs can be found at the Departments of Labor, Agriculture, Treasury, and the Economic Development Agency. But after two decades of poverty programs, revitalization efforts, and other efforts Blacks and other low income urban residents still, for the most part, live in substandard, segregated, and costly housing in conditions significantly worse than most other Americans.     

The Other January Effect: Evidence against market efficiency?

The Other January Effect (OJE), which suggests positive (negative) equity market returns in January predict positive (negative) returns in the following 11 months of the year, underperforms a simple buy-and-hold strategy before and after risk-adjustment. Even the best modified OJE strategy, which benefits from several ex-post adjustments, does not generate statistically or economically significant excess returns. When the OJE is tested with a method that is consistent with investor experience it is clear the OJE is no more profitable than an 11-month strategy that uses November or December as the conditioning month.     

Can an Ethical Revival of Prudence Within Prudential Regulation Tackle Corporate Psychopathy?

The view that corporate psychopathy played a significant role in causing the global financial crisis, although insightful, paints a reductionist picture of what we present as the broader issue. Our broader issue is the tendency for psychopathy, narcissism and Machiavellianism to cluster psychologically and culturally as ‘dark leadership’ within global financial institutions. Strong evidence for their co-intensification across society and in corporations ought to alarm financial regulators. We argue that an ‘ethical revival’ of prudence within prudential regulation ought to be included in any package of solutions. Referencing research on moral muteness and the role of language in framing thoughts and behaviours, we recommend that regulators define prudence in an explicitly normative sense, an approach that may be further strengthened by drawing upon a widely appealing ethic of intergenerational care. An ethical revival of prudence, we argue, would allow the core problems of greed and myopia highlighted by corporate psychopathy theory to be addressed in a politically sensitive manner which recognises the pitfalls of regulating directly against corporate psychopathy. Furthermore, it would provide a viable conceptual framework to guide regulators along the treacherous path to more intrusive cultural regulation.     

An innovative approach to risk and quality assessment in the regulation of care services in Scotland

The Scottish Government’s social care regulator, the Care Commission, seeks continual improvement in the quality of social care services. Its approach has been to establish a modern risk-based regulatory regime using separate measures of risk and quality. We evaluate this twin approach, firstly, in relation to the literature on predictors of poor service quality in care delivery; and, secondly, by interviewing a sample of Care Commission inspectors. We conclude that this system has important advantages, both in terms of regulatory transparency and the need for inspectors to remain sensitive to the separateness of risk and quality issues. Future revisions of risk and quality assessment within social care services, both in Scotland and further afield, should seek to minimise misunderstanding and conflict between regulators and regulatees on closely interrelated matters of risk, quality and efficiency.     

Transaction costs in an illiquid order‐driven market

Transaction costs in many international equity markets are much larger than those in the USA. This raises questions such as what trade size these reported trading costs relate to and whether investors can reduce trading costs by timing their trades. We show, using data from the order‐driven New Zealand market, that transaction costs are frequently lower for larger trades, particularly in small stocks, and investors are able to reduce costs by timing their transactions. While investors who require immediate execution incur transaction costs that are much higher than reported average costs, patient investors can trade at much better rates.     

Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison

Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro‐economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno‐cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, for example, from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an ambitious mitigation scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in a high‐emission scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy‐induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise.