沃顿商学院中国的第二次经济大转型

我一直密切关注着中国近年来增长与繁荣。现在是中国的第二次经济转型．即构筑统一的国内市场的时候了。我认为这一转变势在必行．只有如此．那些有能力在国内竞争中获胜，继而挺进国际市场的企业才能脱颖而出。     

Bank Capital Standards for Market Risk: A Welfare Analysis

We propose a simple model that is suitable for evaluating alternative bank capital regulatory proposals for market risk. Our model formalizes the conflict between bank objectives and regulatory goals. Banks' decisions represent a tension between their desire to exploit the deposit-insurance put option and their desire to preserve franchise value. Regulators seek to balance the social value of deposits in mediating transactions against the deadweight costs of failure resolution. Our social welfare criterion is standard: a weighted average agents' utilities.We demonstrate that banks do not incrementally alter their portfolio risk as the economic environment changes. Rather, banks either choose the minimal feasible risk or the maximal feasible risk. This pattern, in turn, drives regulatory decisions: The first goal of the regulator is to induce banks to choose the minimal risk level. For all nontrivial cases, unregulated banks fail to choose the first-best allocations. Traditional ex-ante capital requirements can induce banks to choose the socially-optimal level of portfolio risk, but the required capital is often inefficiently high. In contrast, variants of the Federal Reserve Board's precommitment proposal imply far smaller efficiency losses, and achieve allocations at or near the first-best for most reasonable model specifications. The ex-post penalties required for the optimal implementation of precommitment are not excessively large. The welfare gains from precommitment are even higher when the precommitment penalty function is precluded from sending banks into default. We conclude that state-contingent regulatory mechanisms, of which the precommitment approach is an example, offer the possibility of substantial gains in regulatory efficiency, relative to traditional state non-contingent regulation.     

FUTURE DIRECTIONS IN UNDERGRADUATE INSURANCE EDUCATION: ACADEMIC AND REAL WORLD PERSPECTIVES

Abstract: The authors discuss the hiring patterns of some insurers and examine why insurers do not always seek out students with risk management and insurance backgrounds. The authors suggest that it is important for universities and insurers to work more closely so that students coming out of college insurance programs are well prepared to work in the insurance industry.     

Contextual marketing--the real business of the Internet

The painful truth is that the Internet has been a letdown for most companies--largely because the dominant model for Internet commerce, the destination Web site, doesn't suit the needs of those companies or their customers. Most consumer product companies don't provide enough value or dynamic information to induce customers to make the repeat visits--and disclose the detailed information--that make such sites profitable. In this article, David Kenny and John F. Marshall suggest that companies discard the notion that a Web site equals an Internet strategy. Instead of trying to create destinations that people will come to, companies need to use the power and reach of the Internet to deliver tailored messages and information to customers. Companies have to become what the authors call "contextual marketers." Delivering the most relevant information possible to consumers in the most timely manner possible will become feasible, the authors say, as access moves beyond the PC to shopping malls, retail stores, airports, bus stations, and even cars. The authors describe how the ubiquitous Internet will hasten the demise of the destination Web site--and open up scads of opportunities to reach customers through marketing "mobilemediaries," such as smart cards, e-wallets, and bar code scanners. The companies that master the complexity of the ubiquitous Internet will gain significant advantages: they'll gain greater intimacy with customers and target market segments more efficiently. The ones that don't will be dismissed as nuisances, the authors conclude. They suggest ways to become welcome additions--not unwelcome intrusions--to customers' lives.     

University of Texas Roundtable on Financing and Managing Energy Investments in a Low‐Price Environment

During the past 18 months, the U.S. oil industry has seen oil prices plunge from well over $100 a barrel to under $30. In a session that was part of a recent Private Equity Conference at the University of Texas in Austin, the CEO of a small independent producer and a representative of a large global oil and gas company discussed the challenges of financing and operating energy companies in today's low‐price environment with the director of energy research at a brokerage firm, the senior partner responsible for the natural resource investments of a well‐known private equity firm, and the head of the oil and gas restructuring practice of a national law firm. The panelists appeared to reach a consensus on at least the following three arguments:

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Editorial Favoritism in Economics?

Are articles by authors with institutional connections or personal ties to the publishing journal's editor(s)/coeditors of lower quality than those authored without such connections? Examination of articles published in six core economics journals in 1990 found that articles authored by those with such connections, especially service on the publishing journal's editorial board, are statistically and numerically of higher quality than articles by those without such connections. In addition, this quality difference does not decrease over time.