Rail access charges and the competitiveness of high speed trains

This paper examines rail access charges for high speed trains on new high speed lines in Europe and the impact these have on the market position of high speed rail. It examines the latest evidence on the marginal infrastructure and external costs of high speed rail, finding that the best evidence is that these are both not more than 2 €/train-km. However, current legislation states that environmental costs should not be charged for unless they are charged for on competing modes. Mark ups based on Ramsey pricing principles might reasonably raise prices by 100–200%, given that infrastructure charges are only a part of the final price of rail. The paper then examines the actual prices charged in the main European countries operating high speed trains and the impact these are likely to have on traffic levels and mode split. It is found that mark ups often exceed even the optimal Ramsey levels, with a significant impact on rail volumes and market share. It is concluded that, whilst it is not surprising that governments wish to recover some of the construction costs of new high speed rail lines from users, they should consider carefully whether the level of charges is actually significantly reducing traffic on and benefits from these lines.     

Is infrastructure capital productive? A dynamic heterogeneous approach

This paper offers an evaluation of the output contribution of infrastructure. Using a panel time series approach and a large cross‐country dataset, the paper estimates a long‐run aggregate production function relating gross domestic product to human capital, physical capital, and a synthetic measure of infrastructure comprising transport, power and telecommunications. Tests of the cointegration rank allowing it to vary across countries reveal a common rank with a single cointegrating vector, which we interpret as the long‐run production function. Estimation of its parameters is performed using the pooled mean group (PMG) estimator, which allows for unrestricted short‐run parameter heterogeneity across countries while imposing the (testable) restriction of long‐run parameter homogeneity. The long‐run elasticity of output with respect to the synthetic infrastructure index ranges between 0.07 and 0.10. The estimates are highly significant, both statistically and economically, and robust to alternative dynamic specifications and infrastructure measures. Tests of parameter homogeneity fail to yield evidence that the long‐run parameters differ across countries. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Did Italy Need More Labour Flexibility?

The dramatic impact of the 2008 crisis on the Italian economy led to policy responses including structural reforms and labour market liberalisation to reverse the worrisome output and employment trends. A key action by the Italian government, the evocatively named Jobs Act of 2014, has deeply changed Italian industrial relations. The Jobs Act has introduced a new contract type that substantially limits workers’ rights to reinstatement in case of fi rms invalidly fi ring them. This article frames the Jobs Act within the overall liberalisation process begun in Italy in the 1990s, providing an initial evaluation of its impacts. Using detailed data sources, we show that the expected boost in employment cannot be detected, the share of temporary contracts over open-ended ones has increased and the number of part-time contracts has risen. This evidence suggests that the Jobs Act is failing to achieve its main goals.     

Approximation and decomposition of Gini, Pietra–Ricci and Theil inequality measures

Two related problems are dealt with in this article, concerning some popular inequality indices proposed by Gini, Pietra?CRicci and Theil: (1) the calculation of the index when only a frequency distribution is available, thus needing some kind of approximation; and (2) a reasonable decomposition of the index calculated for a mixture, with components related to ??within?? and ??between?? inequalities, and possibly to the separate contributions of each group to the overall inequality. Beside the proposals arising from the specific structure of each inequality index, a general approach for identifying the within component is utilized, which is based on the fixation of a given number of fictitious individuals (called aggregate units), common to every group. Regarding the Gini index, a general expression is obtained for the approximation problem, while the within inequality is more easily managed by the recourse to aggregate units. The decomposition of the Pietra?CRicci index displays three components, clearly ascribable to within inequality, to a mixture effect and to a mean effect. Regarding the Theil index, some simple and very accurate approximation formulae are obtained. An application of all the indices and their decompositions has been made for the 2004 income distribution for Italy (Bank of Italy Survey).     

Budget Forecast Deviations in Municipal Governments: Determinants and Implications

This paper analyses the determinants of municipalities’ budget forecast quality, showing opportunistic behaviour influenced by the electoral cycle. Incumbents overestimate revenue to spend more and underestimate expenditure in the quest for popularity and electoral support. Our results suggest that the budget forecast procedure should be made transparent and externally audited or monitored.     

Modeling the Euro overnight rate

This paper describes the evolution of the daily Euro overnight interest rate (EONIA) by using several models containing the jump component, such as a single-regime ARCH-Poisson–Gaussian process, with either a piecewise function or an autoregressive conditional specification (ARJI) for the jump intensity, and a two-regime-switching process with jumps and time-varying transition probabilities. To model the jump intensity, we include the following effects which are significant for the occurrence of jumps: (1) the end of maintenance period effect because of reserve requirements, (2) the end of month effect, also known as the calendar day effect, caused mainly by accounting adjustments and finally, (3) the meeting effect caused by the meetings of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB). These effects lead to better performance and several of them are also included for the behavior of the transition probabilities. Since the target of the ECB is to maintain the EONIA rate close to the policy rate, we model the conditional mean of the overnight rate series as a reversion process to this policy rate, distinguishing two alternative speeds of reversion, specifically, a different speed if EONIA is higher or lower than the policy rate. We also study the jumps of the EONIA rate around the ECB's meetings by using the ex-post probabilities of the ARJI model. Finally, we develop a volatility forecasting analysis to measure the performance of the different candidate models.     

Fiscal Consolidations and Economic Growth

The aim of this paper is to deepen the understanding of the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations. In particular, there is evidence in the literature of fiscal consolidation episodes producing (non‐Keynesian) expansionary effects in the short run. We replicate this result for a panel of OECD countries under exogeneity of the fiscal consolidation. However, we provide some evidence that output growth might affect the fiscal tightening process so that fiscal consolidations are not exogenous to economic growth. Once we allow for feedback effects from economic growth to fiscal adjustments, we find that expansionary effects disappear and recover the typical Keynesian effect of fiscal adjustments. This finding points to the need to take these short‐term negative implications into account in the design of fiscal consolidations.     

Human resources audit

Human resource management (HRM) has experienced a strong evolution. In order to provide useful information to managers, it is necessary to evaluate the results generated by the design and implementation of personnel policies. This is the goal of the HR audit that includes two different analyses and valuations: the HR policies and their level of fit with the strategy of the firm, and the characteristics of human capital. Several criteria have been used to assess different HR policies. Nevertheless, the measurement of the value that human capital brings to the firm is a very complex topic. Consequently, different models are being presented that aim to properly solve this challenge. This paper will analyze the HR function from two perspectives: the evaluation of the implemented policies and the quality of human capital in relation to real competencies, and the capability to learn and develop new skills.     

Judgmental adjustment of forecasts: A comparison of methods

Attention has recently been given to combinations of subjective and objective forecasts to improve forecast accuracy. This research offers an extension on this theme by comparing two methods that can be used to adjust an objective forecast. Wolfe and Flores (1990) show that forecasts can be judgmentally adjusted by analysts using a structured approach based on Saaty's analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In this study, the centroid method is introduced as a vehicle for forecast adjustment and is compared to the AHP. While the AHP allows for finer tuning in reflecting decision maker judgement, the centroid method produces very similar results and is much simpler to use in the forecast adjustment process.