Contract modifications and the basis behavior of live cattle futures

The purpose of this study was to assess the basis behavior of the Live Cattle Futures contract at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) before and after the 1995 contract changes. Additionally, an alternative method of basis calculation utilizing weighted mean futures prices versus settlement futures prices was compared to determine which method provides a better representation of the basis level. Within a regression model with heteroskedascity error framework, we found that the level of nearby basis in the period after June 1995 has shifted lower and the average monthly open interest of net commercial long positions has substantially increased after the contract modifications. These empirical results are consistent with the notion that more long activity entered the market in response to the contract modifications. Additionally, an alternative (new) measure of basis calculation (cash price minus weighted mean futures price) produced similar results to two other commonly used measures. In conclusion, the 1995 contract changes have neither increased nor decreased the volatility of live cattle basis. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:557–590, 2004     

CROSS‐DOCKING AND ITS IMPLICATIONS IN LOCATION‐DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS

Cross‐docking replaces traditional warehousing, enabling continuous flow of items without storage. Here we model location‐distribution networks, that include cross‐docking facilities, to obtain the latter's impact on the supply chain. We formulate optimization models to minimize total cost in three multi‐echelon networks, each model generalizing the preceding one. The first includes a single manufacturer, one product type, and multiple customers. Cross‐docks are to be located between origin and destinations. Besides solving optimally, a tool for quantitative analysis of direct‐shipment decisions is developed. The second model considers more than one product: We determine a cost‐effective sequence of items for indirect shipment (via cross‐docks). Finally, in a network with multiple origins, optimal solutions are obtained for 40 medium‐sized and larger examples.     

EXPRESSING INVENTORY CONTROL POLICY IN THE TURNOVER CURVE

Estimation of the inventory level for an entire class of items is a valuable time saver when control of inventories at the aggregate level, rather than the item level, is of interest. Inventory approximation by location in supply chain network configuration and evaluation of inventory control policy shifts, are two examples of application. In this article, various popular inventory policies are related to a general function known as an inventory turnover curve that expresses inventory levels from the combined demand of multiple items. By knowing some basic item characteristics of representative items in a product class, the type of inventory policy being used, and the current aggregate inventory level, an inventory turnover curve can be constructed. This resulting turnover curve can be used to estimate inventory levels within 4.6%, on the average, of theoretically predicted ones.     

Dynamics of the federal funds target rate: a nonstationary discrete choice approach

We apply a discrete choice approach to model the empirical behaviour of the Federal Reserve in changing the federal funds target rate, the benchmark of short‐term market interest rates in the US. Our methods allow the explanatory variables to be nonstationary as well as stationary. This feature is particularly useful in the present application as many economic fundamentals that are monitored by the Fed and are believed to affect decisions to adjust interest rate targets display some nonstationarity over time. The chosen model successfully predicts the majority of the target rate changes during the time period considered (1994–2001) and helps to explain strings of similar intervention decisions by the Fed. Based on the model‐implied optimal interest rate, our findings suggest that there is a lag in the Fed's reaction to economic shocks during this period. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Judo Strategy: 10 Techniques For Beating A Stronger Opponent

The idea of judo economics, building on analogies with the sport of judo, has been around for at least 20 years. But taking these ideas further to judo strategy means that a framework of strategic principles can be developed to help companies put stronger opponents on the mat.