Historic Preservation: Preserving Value?

The creation of historic districts has become a common way to preserve historic buildings and neighborhoods. Advocates of historic districts assume that such districts augment, or at least, protect property values for homes within these districts. The existing economic literature supports this conclusion, but most studies seem to fall victim to an endogeneity bias since higher value homes are, all else equal, more likely to be included in districts. This study uses repeat-sales fixed effects (difference-in-differences) analysis to look at homes before and after the creation of districts in the Boston-Cambridge-Quincy MSA between 2000 and 2007, and thus control for this endogeneity bias. Secondarily, we re-examine the effects of a Massachusetts preservation policy, the Community Preservation Act (CPA) which, in part, supports historic preservation. We find evidence that the creation of a local historic district, on average, reduces home prices for homes in that district between 11.6 and 15.5%. This indicates that any restrictions implied by the creation of a district outweigh any benefits to homeowners within the district. If, instead, census block fixed effects are employed, the analysis shows a statistically insignificant impact, the sign and magnitude of which depends on the specification. Taken together with the repeat sales result, this confirms our intuition about the importance of controlling for omitted variables and endogeneity biases. Finally, we find evidence that the CPA also lowers property values, by less than 1%, and that being in a Historic District magnifies the negative effect of the CPA.     

THE USE OF CONTRACT BY GOVERNMENT AND ITS AGENTS

Given that the provision of a service is being controlled by the state, the decision whether to contract out that service provision to the private sector is essentially a business decision. A number of economic advantages and disadvantages need to be offset against each other. Governments are poorly placed to make such decisions and it is no surprise that PPPs are often inefficient and steered by political objectives.     

Are multi‐resort ski conglomerates more efficient?

This paper compares the efficiency of large ski resort conglomerates with independent ski resorts using data on four countries (Canada, France, United States, Switzerland). Using the stochastic frontier production approach, I find that ski resorts that are owned and managed by the Intrawest group are significantly more efficient than independent ski resorts. The efficiency gap is about nine percentage points on average. The remaining ski resort conglomerates (American Skiing, Vail Resorts Inc., and Compagnie des Alpes SA) do not operate more efficiently than independent ski resorts. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating Euler equations with noisy data: two exact GMM estimators

In this paper we exploit the specific structure of the Euler equation and develop two alternative GMM estimators that deal explicitly with measurement error. The first estimator assumes that the measurement error is log‐normally distributed. The second estimator drops the distributional assumption at the cost of less precision. Our Monte Carlo results suggest that both proposed estimators perform much better than conventional alternatives based on the exact Euler equation or its log‐linear approximation, especially with short panels. An empirical application to the PSID yields plausible and precise estimates of the coefficient of relative risk aversion and the discount rate. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The innovation catalysts

A few years ago the software development company Intuit realized that it needed a new approach to galvanizing customers. The company's Net Promoter Score was faltering, and customer recommendations of new products were especially disappointing. Intuit decided to hold a two-day, off-site meeting for the company's top 300 managers with a focus on the role of design in innovation. One of the days was dedicated to a program called Design for Delight. The centerpiece of the day was a PowerPoint presentation by Intuit founder Scott Cook, who realized midway through that he was no Steve Jobs: The managers listened dutifully, but there was little energy in the room. By contrast, a subsequent exercise in which the participants worked through a design challenge by creating prototypes, getting feedback, iterating, and refining, had them mesmerized. The eventual result was the creation of a team of nine design-thinking coaches--"innovation catalysts"--from across Intuit who were made available to help any work group create prototypes, run experiments, and learn from customers. The process includes a "painstorm" (to determine the customer's greatest pain point), a "soljam" (to generate and then winnow possible solutions), and a "code-jam" (to write code "good enough" to take to customers within two weeks). Design for Delight has enabled employees throughout Intuit to move from satisfying customers to delighting them.     

Misjudging the character of the welfare state: Hayek,generality, and the knowledge problem

What are the limits of collective action? As James Buchanan famously worried, is it possible to empower the productive state without lapsing into the predatory state? This paper uses insights from F.A. Hayek to address problems of public goods and the role of the state. Hayek convincingly argued that no central planner has sufficient knowledge to run an economy. Yet Hayek also allowed for state provision of some goods beyond the prevention of coercion. The question, then, is whether Hayek’s safeguards offer a satisfactory response to Buchanan’s worry. This paper contends that Hayek violated his own conditions for permissible government activity. Nevertheless, he offers a serious research agenda for limiting state abuses.     

Recent trends in trade among developing countries

The paper presents the early results of empirical work on trade among developing countries. The main conclusion is that non-fuel trade among developing countries, excluding capital surplus oil exporters, remained a remarkably stable share of their total trade between 1963 and 1977. This constancy does, however, conceal two interesting opposing trends: The share of manufactures exported to developing countries has been falling sharply, while that of non-fuel primary commodities has been rising, the latter largely because of the demands of the newly industrializing countries. Nevertheless, the dynamism of manufactures has meant that they make up an increasing share of trade among developing countries. Four particular points emerge from the evidence: (i) there is no obvious sign of a bias against trade among developing countries, except whatever effect their own commercial policies may have; (ii) the more inward-looking countries tend to send a higher proportion of their exports to other developing countries and regional integration strengthens this effect; (iii) exports of manufactures to developing countries are much more capital intensive than those to industrialized countries; and (iv) exports to developing country markets may not be the vital first stage for capital goods exports that is sometimes supposed.     

A review of experience curve analyses for energy demand technologies

Transitioning towards a sustainable energy system requires the large-scale introduction of novel energy demand and supply technologies. Such novel technologies are often expensive at the point of their market introduction but eventually become cheaper due to technological learning. In order to quantify potentials for price and cost decline, the experience curve approach has been extensively applied to renewable and non-renewable energy supply technologies. However, its application to energy demand technologies is far less frequent. Here, we provide the first comprehensive review of experience curve analyses for energy demand technologies. We find a widespread trend towards declining prices and costs at an average learning rate of 18 ± 9%. This finding is consistent with the results for energy supply technologies and for manufacturing in general. Learning rates for individual energy demand technologies are symmetrically distributed around the arithmetic mean of the data sample. Absolute variation of learning rates within individual technology clusters of 7 ± 4%-points and between technology clusters of 7 ± 5%-points both contribute to the overall variability of learning rates. Our results show that technological learning is as important for energy demand technologies as it is for energy supply technologies. Applying the experience curve approach to forecast technology costs involves, however, unresolved uncertainties, as we demonstrate in a case study for the micro-cogeneration technology.