Dual Labor Markets and Trade Reform in China

This paper specifically models rigidities in the labor market in China and analyzes the effect of labor market liberalization on economic growth using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Our results indicate that labor market reforms are essential to the realization of significant gains from China's accession in November 2001 to the World Trade Organization (WTO). In the absence of labor market reform, the gains to accession to the WTO are estimated to be minimal.     

Are “Anti-Folk Theorems” in repeated games nongeneric?

Folk Theorems in repeated games hold fixed the game payoffs, while the discount factor is varied freely. We show that these results may be sensitive to the order of limits in situations where players move asynchronously. Specifically, we show that when moves are asynchronous, then for a fixed discount factor close to one there is an open neighborhood of games which contains a pure coordination game such that every Perfect equilibrium of every game in the neighborhood approximates to an arbitrary degree the unique Pareto dominant payoff of the pure coordination game.     

Win/Loss Data and Consumer Switching Costs: Measuring Diversion Ratios and the Impact of Mergers*

We propose an identification strategy for diversion based on win/loss data. First, we show that win/loss data from the merging firms and market shares in two periods for all firms are sufficient to identify the diversion ratios between the merging partners. Second, we show that win/loss data from the merging firms alone are sufficient for partial identification, and we construct a lower bound that provides a good approximation to the diversion ratio when switching costs are high. We demonstrate the performance of our method with numerical simulations and with an application to the Anthem/Cigna merger.     

Accounting year-end dispersion and seasonality in the Japanese corporate bond market

Using monthly yield data on straight bonds, this article investigates seasonality in the Japanese corporate bond market. A statistical examination of spreads between the yield of each bond and a bond market index reveals that the yield spread consistently decreases from April to August, whereas it increases from September to December. Because accounting year-ends for most investors in Japan are concentrated in either March or December, this seasonality supports the hypotheses of tax-loss selling and window dressing. Moreover, the seasonality becomes more pronounced as the debt rating declines, consistent with the findings in previous studies investigating the US bond market.     

Disclosure Policy in a Mixed Market

This paper investigates the optimal disclosure strategy for private information in a mixed duopoly market, where a state-owned enterprise (SOE) and a joint-stock company compete to supply products. I construct a model where the two firms compete in either quantity or price, and uncertainty is associated with either marginal cost or market demand. The model identifies the optimal disclosure strategies that constitute a perfect Bayesian equilibrium by type of competition and uncertainty. In Cournot competition, both firms disclose information under cost uncertainty, while only the SOE or neither firm discloses information under demand uncertainty. Alternatively, in Bertrand competition, only the joint-stock company discloses information under cost uncertainty or demand uncertainty. Recently, developed countries have required the same level of disclosure standards for SOEs as for ordinary joint-stock companies. The findings described in this paper warn that such mandatory disclosure by SOEs can trigger a reaction by joint-stock companies, putting the economy at risk of a reduction in welfare.     

Learning aspiration in repeated games

We study infinitely repeated symmetric 2×2 games played by bounded rational agents who follow a simple rule of thumb: each agent continues to play the same action if the current payoff exceeds the average of the past payoffs, and switches to the other action with a positive probability otherwise. By applying the stochastic approximation technique, we characterize the asymptotic outcomes for all 2×2 games. In the prisoners’ dilemma game, for example, the players cooperate in the limit if and only if the gain from defecting against cooperation is “modest.”     

Supply chain quality management practices and performance: An empirical study

This study proposed a conceptual framework to study the relationships among three dimensions of supply chain quality management (SCQM) – in-house quality management practices (internal QM), interaction for quality with suppliers on the upstream side of supply chain (upstream QM), and interaction for quality with customers on the downstream side of supply chain (downstream QM) – and their impact on two types of quality performance (conformance quality, and customer satisfaction). Survey data were collected from 238 plants in three industries across eight countries and structural equation modeling was used to test this framework. The results indicate a dominant role of the internal QM in SCQM which has a positive impact on the other SCQM dimensions and two types of quality performance. Downstream QM is found to mediate the relationship between internal QM and customer satisfaction, while there is a lack of direct impact of upstream QM on either type of quality performance.