Spieltheoretische Analyse von Konflikt und Kooperation

Mit dem diesj?hrigen Nobelpreis für Wirtschaftswissenschaften wurden die Forscher Robert Aumann und Thomas Schelling für ihre spieltheoretischen Beitr?ge zu Konflikt und Kooperation in (wiederholten) Spielen ausgezeichnet. Inwieweit haben die beiden Forscher die Spieltheorie weiterentwickelt? Auf welche zentralen sozialwissenschaftlichen Fragestellungen lassen sich ihre Erkenntnisse anwenden?     

Economic evaluation of BST-CarGel as an adjunct to microfracture vs microfracture alone in knee cartilage surgery

Objectives:

Knee cartilage damage is a common cause of referral for orthopedic surgery. Treatment aims to reduce pain and symptoms by repairing cartilage. Microfracture, the current standard of care, yields good short-term clinical outcomes; however, treatment might fail after 2–3 years. A Chitosan-Beta glycerolphosphate-based medical device (BST-CarGel) is used as an adjunct to microfracture and demonstrates improvements in quantity and quality of repaired tissue, potentially reducing the risk of treatment failure. This study aimed to establish the economic value of BST-CarGel vs microfracture alone in knee cartilage repair from the societal perspective, using Germany as the reference market.

Methods:

A decision tree with a 20-year time-horizon was constructed, in which undesirable clinical events were inferred following initial surgery. These events consisted of pain management, surgery, and total knee replacement. Clinical outcomes were taken from the pivotal clinical trial, supplemented by other literature. Data and assumptions were validated by a Delphi panel. All relevant resource use and costs for procedures and events were considered.

Results:

In a group of patients with all lesion sizes, the model inferred that BST-CarGel yields a positive return on investment at year 4 (with 20-year cumulative cost savings of €6448). Reducing the incremental risk of treatment failure gap between the device and microfracture by 25–50% does not alter this conclusion. Cost savings are greatest for patients with large lesions; results for patients with small lesions are more modest.

Limitations:

Clinical evidence for microfracture and other interventions varies in quality. Comparative long-term data are lacking. The comparison is limited to microfracture and looks only at costs without considering quality-of-life.

Conclusion:

BST-CarGel potentially represents a cost-saving alternative for patients with knee cartilage injury by reducing the risk of clinical events through regeneration of chondral tissue with hyaline characteristics. Since the burden of this condition is high, both to the patient and society, an effective and economically viable alternative is of importance.     

Agglomeration,tax competition,and fiscal equalization

This paper analyzes the impact of fiscal equalization on asymmetric tax competition when positive agglomeration externalities are present. It uses a model focusing on the strategic reason for capital taxes to demonstrate that per capita fiscal capacity equalization improves the spatial allocation of capital provided a sufficiently rich (marginally) larger region and sufficiently strong agglomeration externalities. If tax revenue is used to finance public goods, per capita fiscal capacity equalization generally cannot simultaneously eliminate public good inefficiency and spatial inefficiency. However, the achievement of full efficiency for ex ante identical regions requires excessive (full) equalization in the presence (absence) of agglomeration externalities.     

Performance of acquirers of divested assets: Evidence from the U.S. software industry

We provide a comparative analysis of acquirer returns in acquisitions of public firms, private firms, and divested assets. On the basis of a sample of 5,079 acquisitions by U.S. software industry companies during 1988–2008, we find that acquisitions of divested assets outperform acquisitions of privately held firms, which in turn outperform acquisitions of publicly held firms. While the higher returns for acquisitions of divested assets relative to stand‐alone acquisition targets can be explained by market efficiency arguments, seller distress and improved asset fit further enhance the positive returns of acquirers of divested assets consistent with the relative bargaining power explanation. Finally, we find that the effects of these buyer bargaining advantages are mutually strengthening and that they also hold for longer‐term acquirer performance Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

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NETNOMICS: Economic Research and Electronic Networking -     

Spread ladder swaps—an analysis of controversial interest rate derivatives

This article analyzes spread ladder swaps traded by Deutsche Bank to several medium-size companies and municipalities. The value of these contracts is highly sensitive to correlations between forward rates. For a contract that was challenged by the medium-size company Ille at the Federal Court of Germany, it turns out that the derivative was originated at a negative market value of −90,000 to −115,000 euros (depending on the number of factors used in the model). Moreover, the model correctly predicts the range for the terminal payment after an adverse development of the term structure of approximately 567,000 euros. We also investigate a product feature that limits the upside potential from the viewpoint of the customer and show that it has a substantial impact on market values. According to the judgment handed down by the court, the bank should have informed the customer about the market value of the product in light of special circumstances. This raises questions as to which products must meet this requirement. Moreover, especially for exotic contracts, market prices are mostly model prices: for spread ladder swaps, substantially different prices are obtained even when investors agree on the variance/covariance matrix but disagree on the number of factors to apply in an implementation of a model.     

PRICE SETTING OF MARKET MAKERS: A FILTERING PROBLEM WITH ENDOGENOUS FILTRATION

This paper studies the price‐setting problem of market makers under risk neutrality and perfect competition in continuous time. The classic approach of Glosten–Milgrom is followed. Bid and ask prices are defined as conditional expectations of a true value of the asset given the market makers' partial information that includes the customers' trading decisions. The true value is modeled as a Markov process that can be observed by the customers with some noise at Poisson times. A mathematically rigorous analysis of the price‐setting problem is carried out, solving a filtering problem with endogenous filtration that depends on the bid and ask price processes quoted by the market maker. The existence and uniqueness of the bid and ask price processes is shown under some conditions.