A Monte Carlo approach to compute the asymptotic standard errors of dynamic multipliers

A Monte Carlo method to compute asymptotic standard errors of dynamic multipliers is proposed. It is applied to Hein's Model I to find standard error of interim multipliers of taxes on nominal income.     

The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates

The conduct of monetary policy, the term structure of interest rates and the structure of the economy in the UK have changed over the post-WWII period. We model the interaction between the macroeconomy and financial markets using a time-varying VAR augmented with the factors from the yield curve. There is evidence of a great moderation in the dynamics of the yield curve, with the factors being persistent and volatile before the introduction of inflation targeting in 1992 but becoming stable afterwards. The introduction of time-variation in the Factor Augmented VAR improves the fit of the model and results in expectation hypothesis consistent yields that are close to actual yields, even at long maturities. Monetary policy shocks had a significant impact on the volatility of inflation, output and the policy rate over the pre-inflation targeting era, but their contribution has been negligible under the current regime. Shocks to the level of the yield curve accounted for a large fraction of inflation variability only before 1992.     

Enabling open innovation in small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises: how to find alternative applications for your technologies

A critical success factor in the practice of Open Innovation is the timely identification of opportunities for out‐licensing a firm's technologies outside its core business. This can be particularly challenging for small‐ and medium‐sized enterprise (SMEs), because of their focussed business portfolio, specialized knowledge basis, and limited financial resources that can be devoted to innovation activities. The paper illustrates a quick and easy‐to‐use methodology for the identification of viable opportunities for out‐licensing a firm's technologies outside its core business. The method uses established TRIZ instruments in combination with non‐financial weighting and ranking techniques and portfolio management tools. It has been developed by the authors in collaboration with an Italian SME working in the packaging industry.     

Improving forecasting for telemarketing centers by ARIMA modeling with intervention

In this study we analyze existing and improved methods for forecasting incoming calls to telemarketing centers for the purposes of planning and budgeting. We analyze the use of additive and multiplicative versions of Holt–Winters (HW) exponentially weighted moving average models and compare it to Box–Jenkins (ARIMA) modeling with intervention analysis. We determine the forecasting accuracy of HW and ARIMA models for samples of telemarketing data. Although there is much evidence in recent literature that “simple models” such as Holt–Winters perform as well as or better than more complex models, we find that ARIMA models with intervention analysis perform better for the time series studied.     

Unemployment persistence: does the size of the shock matter?

One of the stylized facts of unemployment is that shifts in its mean rate between decades and half-decades account for most of its variance. In this paper, we use a statistical analysis based on Markov switching regression models to identify the dates of infrequent changes in the mean of the unemployment rate series of fifteen countries. We find that in most countries, unemployment persistence is much reduced once the (infrequently) changing mean rate, induced by large shocks to unemployment, has been removed. We conclude that the observed persistence in unemployment appears to be consistent with multiple equilibria models and models with an endogeneous natural rate. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Preserving Value through Adaptation to Climate Change

Corporate “mitigation” efforts to limit greenhouse gases alone will not be sufficient to protect companies against future environmental impacts. For most companies intent on preserving their operating efficiency and value, “adaptation”—the process of changing behavior in response to actual or expected climate change impacts—is emerging as a critical partner to mitigation efforts aimed at reducing the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The recent growth in the expected costs associated with the risk of climate change emphasizes the importance of developing new technology and redesigning infrastructure and other assets that will enable companies to respond to such change without excessive reductions in profitability. The nature and extent of adaptation in each situation will depend on the costs involved relative to the benefits of adopting different adaptation strategies to achieve a target level of resilience. Companies that choose to adapt and do so effectively are expected to benefit from an improvement in their net risk‐return profile. Consistent with this expectation, the authors found that a sample of companies from the European energy sector that adapted to the 2005 EU climate change mandate by diversifying their fuel sources (mainly away from coal) experienced reductions in both risk and return while non‐adapting firms experienced roughly the same returns, but at the cost of higher risk. The benefit of adapting is thus seen as showing up not in higher returns per se, but in higher risk‐adjusted returns.     

"Greening" SMEs' Competitiveness

Over the last few years, public institutions, the market, the financial community and non governmental associations have explicitly demanded that firms improve their environmental performance. However, in spite of the strong pressure from external stakeholders, recent studies have highlighted the fact that only large corporations adopt a pro-active environmental strategy, whereas SMEs tend to comply with external pressures, thus adopting a re-active strategy. In the light of these issues, the paper analyses the stakeholders' role in supporting SMEs' shift from a reactive to a proactive pattern of environmental behavior. In particular, the study seeks to: design a conceptual model which describes stakeholders' "direct role", i.e. providing SMEs with resources, as well as their "indirect role", i.e. encouraging SMEs to develop co-operative relationships and creating the necessary conditions for collaboration in improving their environmental performance, and verify empirically stakeholders' actual role in supporting SMEs' environmental development.