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51.
Does Meeting Earnings Expectations Matter? Evidence from Analyst Forecast Revisions and Share Prices 总被引:10,自引:1,他引:10
This paper investigates whether the market rewards firms meeting current period earnings expectations, and whether any such reward reflects the implications of meeting expectations in the current period for future earnings or reflects a distinct market premium. We document that abnormal annual returns are significantly greater for firms meeting expectations, controlling for the information in the current year's earnings. We then test whether firms meeting expectations experience higher returns simply because their expected future earnings are also higher. We find firms meeting expectations have significantly higher earnings forecasts and realized earnings than firms that do not. We find that controlling for these higher future earnings, firms meeting expectations in one or two years do not receive a greater valuation than their fundamentals would suggest. We find, however, that the market assigns a higher value to firms that meet expectations consistently, controlling for an estimate of the firm's fundamental value. 相似文献
52.
Maureen F. McNichols 《Review of Accounting Studies》2003,8(2-3):385-391
The Dechow et al. paper (2003, this issue) on the distribution of earnings raises an important question: why are earnings kinky? They conduct a number of tests of the earnings management explanation and do not find supportive evidence. They also provide evidence that a number of factors influence the magnitude of the discontinuity in earnings, suggesting that it is a poor proxy for the extent of earnings management. This discussion addresses the contribution of their study, the power of their tests and the implications for future research. 相似文献
53.
During the 2007–2009 financial crisis there was little or no trading in a variety of financial assets, even though bid and ask prices existed for many of these assets. We develop a model in which this illiquidity arises from uncertainty, and we argue that this new form of illiquidity makes bid and ask prices unsuitable as metrics for establishing “fair value” for these assets. We show how the extreme uncertainty that traders face can be characterized by incomplete preferences over portfolios, and we use Bewley's (2002) model of decision making under uncertainty to derive equilibrium quotes and the nonexistence of trading at these quotes. We then suggest alternatives for valuing assets in illiquid markets. 相似文献
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William?H.?Beaver Maureen?F.?McNicholsEmail author Jung-Wu?Rhie 《Review of Accounting Studies》2005,10(1):93-122
Using a hazard model, we examine secular changes in the ability of financial statement data to predict bankruptcy from 1962 to 2002. We identify three trends in financial reporting that could influence predictive ability with respect to bankruptcy: FASB standards, the perceived increase in discretionary financial reporting behavior, and the increase in unrecognized assets and obligations. A parsimonious three-variable model provides significant explanatory power throughout the time period, with only a slight deterioration in predictive power from the first to the second time period. The striking feature of the results is the robustness of the predictive models over a forty-year period.JEL Classification: M41, G14, G33, C41 相似文献
56.
Michael?Anyadike-Danes Mark?HartEmail author Maureen?O’Reilly 《Small Business Economics》2005,25(3):273-292
The paper investigates the relationships between registrations, de-registrations and population density at county level in
the UK using VAT data for 20 years over the period 1980–1999. The rationale for this is based on the need to understand how
the extent to which, in different parts of the UK, differences in the relationship between birth rates and death rates combine
to produce an interpretable pattern in net birth rates. The analysis of the net birth rate shows that a strategy aimed at
the net birth rate might, in principle, just as well aim at reducing business failure, rather than raising the birth rate.
Indeed this might be more efficient, since it implies that less start-ups are “wasted” as it would avoid the necessity, if targets are to be reached, of encouraging those individuals who are patently unsuited
to running their own business into business ownership. 相似文献
57.
This paper provides general techniques for the characterization of optimal plans resulting from stochastic dynamic programming. We show that under standard assumptions the optimal plans in both finite and infinite horizon problems can be obtained by an application of the Implicit Function Theorem to first order conditions. Further, we show that under certain checkable conditions, optimal plans and value functions are p-times differentiable for any integer p ? 0. Finally, we apply our technique to obtain a Cp plan and value function in a one sector infinite horizon growth problem under uncertainty. 相似文献
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Disease management programs include a wide variation of patients with different chronic diseases and different health care utilization. The aim of this article was to identify factors on patient-level and organizational-level that explain the variability in costs of patients with different chronic diseases enrolled in a DMP by employing a rigorous analytical model. A generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) was specified to perform a multi-level analysis of cross-sectional hierarchical data from 16 DMPs in the Netherlands. Multiple imputation, sub-group analysis per disease and analysis from both the health care and the societal perspectives were also performed. Our model showed that age, the presence of cardiovascular disease, multi-morbidity and payments on top of the payment for the usual care had positive relation with costs, while better quality of life was associated with lower health care costs. In the COPD sample, physical activity and employment were associated with health care costs. Our study showed that there is great variability in health care costs among patients included in DMPs and identified patient and organizational explanatory factors. The findings are relevant to the design of future DMPs and their payment schemes. 相似文献
60.