Evaluation of national foresight activities: Assessing rationale, process and impact

The paper addresses the question of what constitutes an appropriate evaluation strategy for national foresight activities in different situations. The variety of rationales for foresight is explored, ranging from a desire to set priorities through to participation-oriented goals and building new networks around common visions and strategies. A generational model of foresight is used to show the evolution of key evaluation issues. The generic motivations for evaluation of accountability, justification and learning are discussed in the context of foresight. Evaluation grounded in the concept of behavioural additionality and the systems failure rationale is shown to be more suited as a rationale for foresight as public policy.Assessing the effects of foresight requires an understanding that it is only one of several influences on public policy. To be effective it needs to be tuned into the strategic behaviour and cycles of policy and economic actors. Cases are presented of evaluation of foresight programmes in the United Kingdom, Germany and Hungary. It is concluded that there is no “one-size-fits-all” evaluation approach and that the method selected is conditioned by motivation, timing and the level of aggregation. Foresight cannot be fully evaluated independently from its context. Foresight is being strengthened by the emergence of rigorous and systematic knowledge to assist learning and improvement.     

Seasonal decomposition and forecasting of telecommunication data: A comparative case study

In this paper, forecasting models for the monthly outgoing telephone calls in a University Campus are presented. The data have been separated in the categories of international and national calls as well as calls to mobile phones. The total number of calls has also been analyzed. Three different methods, namely the Seasonal Decomposition, Exponential Smoothing Method and SARIMA Method, have been used. Forecasts with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each method and compared with the actual data. The outcome of this work can be used to predict future demands for the telecommunications network of the University.     

The coevolution of firms and their knowledge environment: Insights from the pharmaceutical industry

What are the most effective learning strategies for firms given the characteristics of their knowledge environment? This paper addresses this question by documenting the major changes in the knowledge environment of the pharmaceutical industry, with a particular emphasis on the period since the emergence of biotechnology, and discussing the related changes in the learning strategies of established pharmaceutical firms. Both the historical analysis and a review of the empirical research on organizational learning and knowledge transfer reveal a strong emphasis of firms on external learning through interfirm collaborations and sourcing of external knowledge. This learning strategy seems to be driven by the speed, uncertainty, and dispersion of knowledge developments in the industry. Studying the connections between the knowledge environment and the effectiveness of organizational learning processes is important to understand organizational change and adaptation, and is an area of research that deserves further attention.     

Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas

Foresight activities have often provided support for objectives such as priority-setting, networking and consensual vision-building. In this paper, we draw upon complementary evolutionary perspectives and discuss these objectives from the viewpoint of diversity which may be vital in contexts characterized by technological discontinuities and high uncertainties. We also argue that although the scanning of weak signals has been widely advocated in such contexts, the solicitation of ideas for prospective innovations may provide more focused, action-oriented, and comparable reflections of future developments. For the analysis of such ideas, we develop a collaborative foresight method RPM Screening which consists of phases for the generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovation ideas. We also report experiences from a pilot project where this method was employed to enhance the work of the Foresight Forum of the Ministry of Trade and Industry in Finland. Encouraging results from this project and other recent applications suggest that RPM Screening can be helpful in foresight processes and the development of shared research agendas.     

Exploring purchasing integration in product development

With increasing outsourcing and the growing importance of product innovation as a means for creating competitive advantage, the integration of purchasing and product development processes has become a key issue for many firms. Although, consequently, the integration of purchasing and suppliers in product development has attracted growing attention from practitioners and researchers, most research on the topic remains limited to the context of single development projects. The integration with long-term issues such as technological alignment between supplier and manufacturer is often neglected. This limited conception and the lack of a coherent definition of what purchasing integration in product involvement is form a major impediment to the advancement of knowledge in this field. Therefore, this article develops a framework encompassing various activities across different management levels, which embody the alignment and integration of purchasing and product development processes.     

Communication in international business-to-business marketing channels: Does culture matter?

As business-to-business marketing channels become more international in scope, communication in channels occurs among a more diverse set of channel participants from different national cultures. Do such cultural variations influence channel communications and if so, how? This study examines these questions in international business-to-business marketing channels comprised of channel members representing different cultural contexts. The findings show that there is a relationship between culture and channel communication in international channels. This influence stemming from “cultural distance” may have significant implications as business moves into the E-commerce era of Internet-based B2B international channels of distribution.     

Problems evaluating sales representative performance?: Try activity-based costing

Activity-based costing (ABC) offers a way to improve performance evaluation by providing estimates of the cost of satisfying sales terms to which a sales representative may agree, such as number of batches in which an order is produced and number of training hours provided to customer employees. It also provides estimates of the cost of resources that a sales representative may use while engaging in marketing activities, such as making sales calls and attending trade shows. Traditional costing, which assumes that costs only vary at the unit level, does not provide estimates of the costs of many of these terms and activities.     

Exploring export sales management practices in small- and medium-sized firms

We investigate key sales management aspects in relation to the export involvement stage of the firm. Specifically, an attempt is made to examine the presence of significant differences in export sales management control strategy, export sales organization design and export sales management behavioral attributes between ‘active’ and ‘committed’ exporting firms. We identify several differences among these exporter groups with the main conclusion being that the sales management function is more effectively organized and managed at advanced levels of export involvement. These findings are discussed in the light of existing knowledge, and various conclusions and research implications are also derived.     

Designing sales force satisfying selling positions: a conjoint measurement approach

To design selling positions that appeal to both new and incumbent salespersons, management needs to understand salespersons' preferences for job characteristics. The study reported here exemplifies an effort to operationalize salespersons' preferences for job and task characteristics that takes account of both career stage and gender. Findings indicate that salespeople in the sample prefer salary-based compensation and that female salespeople prefer sales jobs that are fixed in location.     

Strategizing in industrial networks

This paper provides an overview of the implications for strategizing offered by an industrial network perspective and a comparison of this view with strategic management thinking. We argue that it is crucial for a company to relate its activities to those of other firms in order to enhance its performance, and it is through the continuous combining and recombining of existing resources that new resource dimensions are identified and further developed within business relationships. From the standpoint of a single company, strategizing from an industrial network perspective implies that the heterogeneity of resources and interdependencies between activities across company boundaries, as well as the organized collaboration among the companies involved, must be considered simultaneously.