Induced technical change in centrally planned economies

It has generally been assumed that the inferences of the induced technical change model with respect to the direction of technical change could not be expected to hold for the centrally planned economies. In this paper we test three hypotheses generated from the induced technical change hypotheses against the experience of centrally planned economies: (a) if land becomes increasingly scarce new technology will be biased in a land-saving direction; (b) if labor becomes increasingly scarce new technology will be biased in a labor-saving direction; and (c) changes in the land-labor ratio have been induced by changes in relative factor endowments. The results suggest a bias toward mechanical and against biological technology regardless of factor endowments. This is consistent with the well known ideological or policy bias in a number of centrally planned economies toward a capital-intensive development strategy.     

Aspects of growth in a system of cities

This paper explores and develops the modeling of growth in a system of cities in two alternative settings. First, we examine a large growing economy with a fully developed system of cities with perfectly malleable private and public capital. Local scale economies in production and diseconomies in consumption in equilibrium offset each other at the margin so that from a national point of view we have a constant returns to scale economy. We show that at the steady state the number of cities grows exponentially at the rate of growth of the population. We then examine the impact of technological change, considering a case where public capital is not perfectly malleable. In the second setting, we consider the problem of growth for a small economy and discuss problems associated with the transition to the steady state. We modify the previous model to describe a system of cities that is just starting to develop. Investment in public infrastructure capital is subject to sharp indivisibilities and as a result new cities are built at discrete points in time.     

Money demand interest elasticity and monetary policy effectiveness

This paper provides a theoretical basis for discretionary monetary policies being less effective as money demand is more sensitive to interest rates and less effective in checking recession than inflation. It cites speed of response as an important dimension of effectiveness in the policies, arguing that lagged responses diminish effectiveness by increasing prospects for destabilizing performances. It then illustrates how responses can be less rapid as money demand is more sensitive to interest rates and, providing that money demand interest sensitivity exceeds a threshold value, less rapid when the economy is short of full employment.     

Hayek and Experimental Economics

This paper is an address given to the Austrian legislature in Vienna, Austria on March 3, 2004. The main focus is on the connection between insights from F.A. Hayeks research program and experimental economics.     

Igneous origin of K-feldspar megacrysts in deformed granite of the Papoose Flat Pluton, California, USA

Many points of evidence, especially igneous microstructures and structures resulting from solid-state deformation, indicate that K-feldspar megacrysts in deformed granites of the Papoose Flat pluton are residual phenocrysts, not porphyroblasts. Evidence of an igneous origin includes features such as crystal shapes, simple twinning, zonally arranged euhedral plagioclase inclusions, oscillatory compositional zoning, and local occurrence in microgranitoid enclaves. Evidence of solid-state deformation of the megacrysts (which is consistent with their existence prior to the mylonitic deformation) includes marginal recrystallization and neocrystallization, microcline twinning, marginal replacement by myrmekite, and recrystallized/neocrystallized “tails”. Evidence of porphyroblastic growth, such as overgrown inclusion trails, is absent. This appears to be the situation in most felsic augen gneisses and mylonites.     

California regional registered nurse workforce forecast

OBJECTIVE: To forecast the shortage of registered nurses (RNs) of the 24 Primary Metropolitan Statistical Areas (PMSA) and Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) in California. BACKGROUND: A nursing shortage prevails nationally and is most serious in the state of California. Successful interventions in the alleviation of the RN shortage will require effective resource allocation and academic program development in various regions throughout the state. While various published studies have focused on nursing workforce development at the state and even regional levels, there are no studies focused on identifying RN shortages at the PMSA or MSA (P/MSA) level. In this report, a forecasting model is developed to systematically analyze the future supply and demand of the RN workforce within each California P/MSA. METHODS: Using accessible public databases, forecasting models were constructed to project the demand and supply of RN jobs in California P/MSAs. In the demand model, population age and size were used as determinants of regionally required RN jobs. In the RN jobs (supply) model, a region's supply of RNs was the net sum of factors increasing and decreasing the regional presence of RN jobs, including RN graduations, migration, and aging of the RN workforce. The combination of these supply and demand models was used to produce regional RN shortage forecasts for future years. RESULTS: Almost all regions exhibited growing shortages by 2020 at rates ranging from 3% to 600%. Using a modified version of the grading rubric of the California Regional Registered Nurse Workforce Report Card (Lin, Lee, Juraschek, & Jones, 2006), only two regions will receive a grade above "C" in 2020. The number of "F" grades will grow to nine. CONCLUSIONS: California has the lowest RN ratio in the United States (Fletcher, Guzley, Barnhill, & Philhour, 2004; Health Resources and Services Administration, 2004a) and this RN workforce forecasting model shows that over the next 15 years, the majority of P/MSAs in California will have increasing RN shortages. This analysis has significant policy implications including the need to create specific plans to mitigate the effect of the California shortage.