Analysis of real GDP growth rates of greater China: An asymmetric conditional volatility approach

Most empirical studies of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates exclude the dimension of conditional volatility shocks. In this paper, we search for evidence of conditional volatility in the quarterly real GDP of greater China, which comprises the economies of Mainland China, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), and Taiwan. The widely accepted exponential GARCH model of Nelson [Econometrica 59 (1991) 347–370] is employed to capture the possible existence of asymmetric conditional volatility in real GDP. It is found that negative real GDP shocks may induce a greater impact on future volatilities compared with positive shocks of the same magnitude. Policy implications from our findings are discussed.     

Local Taxation in Indonesia: Opportunities for Reform

The Indonesian Government has recently completed a major reform of national taxation; an obvious follow-up is the reform of local taxation. Provinces and kabupaten/kotamadya levy a wide range of local taxes, but with the exception of provincial taxes on motor vehicles, these are mostly small, inelastic and costly to collect. In addition, many have undesirable equity and efficiency implications. This paper analyses the present range of local taxes in terms of a set of criteria, and discusses such issues as local fiscal performance, the effect of multiple taxes, and taxation versus charging. The paper concludes with a review of the options for reform aimed not only at simplifying and improving local taxation, but also at reducing local government's dependence on central government grants.     

Reactions of the International Stock Exchange to Company Employment Announcements: Redundancies and New Jobs

This paper is the first to look directly at the reaction of the London market to company announcements of changes to employee count. Using event study methodology, we examine market reactions to 54 redundancy announcements during the period 1990–1999 and 52 announcements of new jobs during the period 1993–1999. In line with previous US studies we find that market reaction, measured by cumulative abnormal returns, is negative before the day of redundancy announcement. The actual redundancy announcement is greeted positively by the market when measured in terms of the mean, but negatively when measured in terms of the median. Thus, in a minority of cases the announcements are seen as value enhancing. The market reacts positively before new job announcements and this positive reaction is highly significant when the announcement is made. The results suggest that new job announcements contain value–relevant information for the market. Potential causal factors other than announcement size are not significant.     

trade figures: set fair?

Are the trade figures set to improve? Nick Parsons of Union Discount argues that although the figures are likely to improve, a structural deficit is likely to remain.     

Nicaragua and the Dead Hand of Planning

Daniel Ortega (above), President of Nicaragua, attracted attention after the Sandanista take-over by declaring his intention to allow state and market to co-exist. But his increased emphasis on the role of the state has severely impaired the wealth-creating capacity of the attenuated private sector. Nick Elliott, Editor of The Moderate, surveys the damaging effects of Nicaraguan socialism.     

A Comparative Analysis of Developments in Industrial Democracy

The purpose of this article is to analyze recent developments in industrial democracy (worker participation in management) in a comparative perspective. To give the article focus, the period from the mid-1980s onward is selected for analysis, and four countries (United States, Germany, United Kingdom, and Australia) are targeted for systematic examination. Developments in both indirect and direct participation are explained on the basis of elements in the models that we present. Three particularly strong conclusions emerge. First, there are clearly a number of common forces that have affected developments in each country, but the precise forms of participation that have emerged vary in many key respects. Second, organizational changes at the level of the firm appear to be particularly important in the recent period. And finally, the very complex patterns that are observable reinforce our theoretical arguments of the importance of a complex multivariate approach.     

Bringing Ethical Investment to Account

As the ethical investment industry in Australia matures there is a need for greater scrutiny and understanding of the potential investor's personal beliefs, the investment products on offer and the processes by which the investment universe is determined. The recent introduction of regulation requiring additional information in product disclosure statements is a step in the right direction. However, further disclosure by funds and public exposure is necessary to create a transparent and accountable investment industry.