The information content of wheat derivatives regarding the Ukrainian war

We extract implied price densities from wheat options and futures prices during the first 17 months of the Ukrainian war. Changing differences between short- and long-term densities indicate that market expectations about the dynamics of the underlying changed over time. Before the signing of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, wheat derivatives prices showed predictive power for the further development of the conflict, and implied volatilities from wheat options were highly correlated with geopolitical risk (GPR). Afterwards, wheat prices lost their predictive power for the conflict, but instead reflected the market's opinion regarding the viability of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. By that time, correlations between wheat price risk and GPR dropped sharply.     

Sustainability in shipper-logistics service provider relationships: A tentative taxonomy based on agency theory and stimulus-response analysis

The paper contributes to research on sustainability in dyadic buyer–supplier relationships of logistics services. It presents deeper knowledge on why and how suppliers choose to behave sustainably. The research analyzes how shippers stimulate their LSPs and how LSPs respond by conducting sustainability activities. Agency theory and the stimulus–organism–response model are applied as the theoretical foundations for an explorative case study analysis of three large and five small and medium-sized European logistics service providers (LSPs) active in road transport services. Significant differences are found between the sustainability efforts of SMEs and large LSPs and a tentative taxonomy of the sustainability response types of LSPs is derived. The taxonomy contributes to theory-guided research in sustainable supply chain management and procurement. Thereby, mismatches of stimuli and responses are identified and related agency problems in dyadic relationships in terms of sustainability are discussed. From a managerial point of view, the findings may serve as a starting point for purchasers of logistics services to develop adequate sustainability selection criteria and incentives.     

The interplay of governance mechanisms in complex procurement projects

Although many studies have investigated governance in inter-firm relationships, little is known about the simultaneous use of several governance mechanisms in complex procurement projects and their impact on project outcomes. In a case study about a complex procurement project in the Norwegian oil and gas industry, we investigate the interplay of contractual incentives, authority and relational governance. The project faced many problems with cost overruns and schedule delays. The study clearly illustrates the interrelationships between governance mechanisms and their effect on project outcomes. The findings suggest that relational governance (trust) is only beneficial for project outcomes when it is accompanied by contractual incentives and control systems (authority). Relational governance in itself does not guarantee an effective and beneficial interplay of all three mechanisms in a way that positive project outcomes are generated.     

An aspect of variable population poverty comparisons

This paper demonstrates that the property of Replication Invariance, generally considered to be an innocuous requirement for the extension of fixed-population poverty comparisons to variable-population contexts, is incompatible with other plausible variable- and fixed-population axioms. This fact raises questions about what constitutes an appropriate headcount assessment of poverty, in terms of whether one should focus on the proportion, or the absolute numbers, of the population in poverty. This observation, in turn, has important implications for tracking poverty and setting targets for its reduction or elimination.     

A virtual and anonymous, deliberative and analytic participation process for planning and evaluation: The Concept Mapping Policy Delphi

Integrating knowledge and values across a range of stakeholders and experts is a common goal of, and challenge in, forecasting and planning processes across numerous decision-making domains. In this paper we present a virtual and anonymous, deliberative and analytical participatory group process which we applied in a planning study. The process was a combination of concept mapping and a policy Delphi. The Concept Mapping Policy Delphi offers an iterative process that is meant to foster critical, dissensus-based thinking by a group about an evaluation problem. In particular, it offers a platform on which to structure the group brainstorming of ideas, integrates knowledge and values, and creates a shared conceptual framework for addressing evaluation problems. We discuss the merits and limitations of this process and compare it with other public engagement mechanisms for decision-making. We argue that the use of a Concept Mapping Policy Delphi is relevant in forecasting and decision-making processes that aim to integrate information which is from various disparate points of view in order to clarify arguments and values, democratize and mediate public participation, and/or provide strategic advice about scenarios or planning options, while mitigating the problematic aspects of face-to-face group processes.     

Scale,Technique and Composition Effects in Manufacturing SO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Emissions

Combining two data sources on emissions with value-added and employment data, this paper constructs six data bases on sulfur dioxide (SO₂) intensities that vary across countries, sectors and years. This allows us to perform a growth decomposition exercise where the change in world manufacturing emissions is decomposed into scale, composition and technique effects. The sample covers the period 1990–2000, and includes 62 countries that account for 76% of world-wide emissions. While manufacturing activity has increased by a rough 10% (scale effect), we estimate that emissions have fallen by about 10%, thanks to the adoption of cleaner production techniques (the technique effect) and a small shift towards cleaner industries (between-sector effect). As output and productivity gains have been biased towards large emerging countries like China and India, which are both clean in terms of emissions per unit labor and dirty in terms of emissions per dollar, the sign and magnitude of the between-country effect depends on the choice regarding the scaling factor ( − 2% for employment,  + 25% for value-added, with a corresponding adjustment of the technique effect). The paper also shows that these estimates are robust to changes in aggregation across entities (regions or countries) and across industries, and that composition changes are correlated with changes in prices and trade intensities.

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Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.      

On the job and co-worker commitment of Dutch agency workers and permanent employees

This article explores the relationship between employment status (agency workers vs. permanent employees) and affective and normative job and co-worker commitment. Our study was conducted on employees from four metal companies in the Netherlands. As HRM practices seem to influence employee commitment, we performed 89 interviews across all four companies and included blue-collar workers, their managers (direct supervisors, HR managers and production managers), as well as works council members. To test our hypotheses on commitment differences, we conducted quantitative research within the companies (permanent employees N = 167; agency workers N = 54), all blue-collar workers. Results show that permanent employees and agency workers express similar degrees of commitment to their job and to their co-workers, apart from affective commitment to co-workers, which is lower for agency workers than for permanent workers. We argue that national legislation, as well as managers' attempts to offer HR practices equal to those of permanent staff, play a prominent role in stimulating agency workers' commitment.     

Food choice,health information and functional ingredients: An experimental auction employing bread

In this paper we present the results of an experimental auction conducted to examine the influence of health and nutritional information on food choice and in particular estimate consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for bread that contains functional ingredients. Employing a sandwich we find that consumers are WTP more for a whole grain and whole grain granary bread sandwich than other bread types including white bread that contains a functional ingredient. We also find that consumers react positively to the provision of nutritional and health benefit information but that this effect occurs regardless of whether we supply specific or non-specific health benefit information. We discuss information provision and health policy implications that emerge from our analysis for bread products in the sandwich market.     

Tax credits,labour participation and home production in the Netherlands

We set up a dynamic reduced form model of labour market participation for women who balance career and motherhood. The model accounts for the occurrence of future child birth and early retirement, and includes home production; however, it does not require the estimation of a structural model. Careful implementation of pension institutions can return optimal life patterns of participation without the need of a structural approach. The weaker theoretical framework is compensated by the rich spectrum of possible policy simulations. As illustration, we simulate the effect of two tax credits policy options on the hazard rate out of work.     

Early Tracking and the Misfortune of Being Young

Recent research suggests that the relative age of a student within a grade has a causal effect on educational achievement, and that this effect fades with the duration of schooling. In this study, we estimate the causal relative‐age effect on track choice in Austria, a country where students are first tracked in grade 5 (at the age of 10 years), and again in grade 9. We find a strong positive relative‐age effect on track choice in grades 5–8. The age effect persists beyond grade 8 for students from less‐favorable socioeconomic backgrounds and students in urban areas.