Aggregate Margin Debt and the Divergence of Price from Accounting Fundamentals

We examine whether, in the aggregate, margin debt is associated with the divergence of price from accounting fundamentals. We find that investors increase their margin debt following upward price movements away from accounting fundamentals, consistent with these investors being extrapolative in aggregate. We also find evidence that margin debt appears to be linked to temporary overpricing in recent periods, as the aggregate ratio of margin debt to price is reliably associated with negative future returns since at least 1992. Our results are consistent with the theoretical literature that predicts extrapolative traders have a destabilizing effect on market prices, and helps explain why prices diverge from accounting fundamentals.     

Another look at the spending response to the 2001 income tax rebates

This article revisits the spending response to the 2001 US tax rebates by focussing on two key aspects of how tax policy researchers use the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX). These two attributes, which are often overlooked, are as follows: the measures used for consumption and the ‘outlier’ criteria applied to the data. First, I reproduce the results in Johnson et al. (2006 Johnson, DS, Parker, JA and Souleles, NS. 2006. Household expenditure and the income tax rebates of 2001. American Economic Review, 96: 1589–610. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), which (using the CEX) concluded that households immediately spent 20–40% of their rebates on nondurable consumption goods. Then, I show how making two changes – both of which are relied upon in the literature – affects their results. These adjustments reduce the estimated magnitude of the rebate's impact by as much as 100%.     

Zillmerung, Stille Reserven, Intransparenz der Vertragsabwicklung — die Todsünden der Lebensversicherung?

Life Assurance is a very complex, but highly efficient product for individual risk management and old-age insurance. Yet some of its features, mainly connected with profit participation, are sometimes difficult to understand or explain — this is particularly true for the role of Zillmerisation and the use of hidden reserves in the smoothing process which typically is part of profit participation of german life assurance products. Also, Life Assurance is often considered to be an intransparent product. The author expresses his view that Zillmerisation, Hidden Reserves and Intransparency are not ?deadly sins“ of Life Assurance but guarantors of a verifiable product efficiency which finally is of benefit to policy holders. He explains the function of the said product features and substantiates his view by a number of qualitative arguments and quantitative examples.     

Business Cycle Synchronization and Regional Integration: A Case Study for Central America

Deeper trade integration between Central America and the UnitedStates, as envisaged under the Central American Free Trade Agreement,is likely to lead to closer links between Central American andU.S. business cycles. This article assesses the degree of businesscycle synchronization between Central America and the UnitedStates—relevant not only for a better understanding ofthe influence of important trading partners on the businesscycle fluctuations in the domestic economy but for evaluatingthe costs and benefits of macroeconomic coordination.     

Surges and stops in greenfield and M&A FDI flows to developing countries: analysis by mode of entry

This paper investigates the factors associated with foreign direct investment “surges” and “stops”, defined as sharp increases and decreases, respectively, of foreign direct investment inflows to the developing world and differentiated based on whether these events are led by waves in greenfield investments or mergers and acquisitions. Greenfield-led surges and stops occur more frequently than mergers-and-acquisitions-led ones and different factors are associated with the onset of the two types of events. Global liquidity is the factor significantly and positively associated with a surge, regardless of its kind, while a global economic growth slowdown and a surge in the preceding year are the main factors associated with a stop. Greenfield-led surges and stops are more likely in low-income countries and mergers-and-acquisitions-led surges are less likely in resource-rich countries than elsewhere in the developing world. Global growth accelerations and increases in financial openness, domestic economic and financial instability are associated with mergers-and-acquisitions-led surges but not with greenfield-led ones. These results are particularly relevant for developing countries where FDI flows are the major type of capital flows and suggest that developing countries’ macroeconomic vulnerability increases following periods of increased global liquidity. As countries develop they typically become more exposed to merger-and-acquisition-led surges, which are more likely than greenfield-led surges and stops to be short-lived and associated with domestic macroeconomic policies.     

Capitalization of Farm Policy Benefits and the Rate of Return to Policy-Created Assets: Evidence from California Dairy Quota

The rate of return to ownership of California dairy quota is about 27% per year—well above that of typical financial assets, but in line with other measured returns to agricultural quotas. Ownership of dairy quota does not contribute positively to total variation of typical portfolios, including those of dairy farm assets, and so contributes little or no portfolio risk. A plausible alternative hypothesis for the high rate of return is that quota owners see significant risk of policy change that would reduce future quota values. That is, they face default risk in quota ownership.