Distinguished Fellow of the Economic Society of Australia, 2007: Yew-Kwang Ng

This article surveys the work of Yew-Kwang Ng who, in 2007, was elected Distinguished Fellow of the Economic Society of Australia. Emphasis is given to the distinctive, wide ranging and original aspects of his work.     

Canonical Correlation Analysis and Wiener-Granger Causality Tests: Useful Tools for the Specification of VAR Models

Dynamic multivariate models have become popular in analyzing the behavior of competitive marketing systems because they are capable of incorporating all the relationships in a competitive marketing environment. In this paper we consider VAR models, the most frequently used dynamic multivariate models. The drawback of VAR models is that a large number of parameters have to be estimated. The problem has been addressed in several articles and the usual solution is to treat only the variables of interest as endogenous while the other variables are usually included exogenously without dynamic effects. This treatment imposes restrictions on the marketing system, which requires preliminary analysis. We propose to use canonical correlation for this purpose. Canonical correlation analysis and its associated Wiener-Granger causality testing based on the canonical correlation coefficients are useful tools to test the existence of structural relationships between (lagged) consumer response and (lagged) marketing instruments. The tools are applied on data of market shares and marketing instruments in a market of a frequently purchased consumer goods.     

Tests for Price Effects of New Issues of Seasoned Securities

Do new issues of seasoned securities cause significant price movements in the neighborhood of the issue day? This paper presents an empirical comparison of three competing hypotheses: the SEC view that a new issue causes a permanent price decline; the underwriter view that there is only a temporary price decline during the distribution period; and the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) that implies the absence of any price effects. Several empirical tests of the competing hypotheses using data on new issues of utility stocks traded on the NYSE reject the SEC and underwriter views in favor of the EMH.