The US Economy from 1992 to 1998: Results from a Detailed CGE Model*

This paper describes historical and decomposition simulations undertaken for 1992–98 with a 500‐sector computable general equilibrium model of the US. The historical simulation provides estimates of movements in unobservable technology and preference variables. The decomposition simulation explains developments in the US economy in terms of movements in these variables and in observable exogenous variables such as tariffs. Both simulations produce many results. Here we use decomposition results to show that rapid growth in US international trade is explained mainly by technology changes that reduced costs in export‐orientated industries and increased inputs of commodities that are heavily imported.     

Investigating the Disconnect between Financial Knowledge and Behavior: The Role of Parental Influence and Psychological Characteristics in Responsible Financial Behaviors among Young Adults

Financial knowledge is an essential component in financial decision making; however, knowledge is insufficient to ensure responsible financial behavior. We investigate the weak association between financial knowledge and behavior by simultaneously testing the roles financial knowledge, parental influence, and individual psychological characteristics (self‐discipline and thoroughness) play in young adults' financial behaviors. Results from 2,712 respondents from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth confirm there is a weak association between financial knowledge and behavior. Parental influence and self‐discipline positively associate with responsible financial behavior. We also investigate the moderating role of gender and observe that financial knowledge and parental influence improve women's financial behavior more than men, whereas being thorough has a larger impact among males. These findings suggest that considering social and individual psychological factors in financial education programs could improve program efficiency. The results also highlight the importance of adopting tailored financial education to suit gender differences.     

FINANCE AND GROWTH: NEW EVIDENCE ON THE ROLE OF INSURANCE

This paper provides new evidence that sheds light on the impact of insurance sector development on output growth, capital accumulation and productivity improvement, using data from 51 countries (developed and developing) during 1981‐2005. The dynamic panel data analysis results demonstrate that insurance sector development affects growth predominantly through productivity improvement in developed countries, while in developing countries it promotes capital accumulation.     

The Voluntary Inclusion of Forecasts in the MD&A Section of Annual Reports*

Abstract. In this study, we appeal to theories advanced by Darrough and Stoughton (1990) to enhance our understanding of why some firms may voluntarily include directional forecasts in their annual reports while others do not. The data are consistent with their predictions that a firm's disclosure policy reflects its concern for both financial market valuation and product market competition. We find that for “good news firms, the probability of forecasting is increasing in the financing requirements but decreasing in the threat of competitor entry. The converse holds for “bad news” firms. These results lend further empirical support to the observation that the familiar good news hypothesis tested in the management earnings forecast literature offers only a partial explanation for the decision to forecast. Interestingly, however, even after controlling for financial and product market considerations, an overall voluntary disclosure bias still exists in the data. The data also provide support for the OSC's concern about a voluntary disclosure bias. Only 17.5 percent of our sample forecasts represent revisions downward relative to the previous year's results. However, in contrast to the OSC's concern about a general lack of forward-looking disclosures in annual reports, 35.9 percent of our sample firms include directional forecasts in their MD&A or elsewhere in the annual report.     

Sponsoring Sport: Abolish the 'Amateur'

Neil MacFarlane, the Sports Minister, is neglecting his job. 'Amateur' sports are accepting commercial sponsorship. Restrictive rules waste resources and exploit the 'amateur' sportsman. Only abolition of the distinction between professional and amateur can create efficient use of sporting skills.