French economic cycles: a wavelet analysis of French retrospective GNP series

Although 50 years of scientific work has been invested in building retrospective economic time series, their reliability is still debated, a good example being the two competing nineteenth century French GNP series. Instead of trying to bring up some new details to gauge their respective accuracy, we propose a different route, i.e. testing the intrinsic features of these two series, in absolute terms first, then by benchmarking them to a non-retrospective time series. In order to do that, we rely on new mathematical tools—wavelet spectrum analysis—developed in signal processing. This leads to a new approach, which separates the accuracy of a series between amplitude and time variations, and brings nuanced conclusions as to which of the two series tested is the best: indeed, since a trade-off is almost inescapable between the two criterions of accuracy, the statistical quality of one retrospective time series tends to linger either on one side (amplitude level) or the other (time variations). Our study also shows that variance distribution along the time axis is a good proxy for complex retrospective series accuracy.

How service seasons the experience: Measuring hospitality servicescapes

Hospitality servicescapes incorporate physical complexity and social interaction. These two features are often measured separately but rarely measured together in attempts to uncover consumer perceptions within these settings. A psychometric scale developed within the restaurant setting shows a five-dimensional structure for capturing the personality of a hospitality setting. In contrast to attribute-based measures, this measurement approach highlights the importance of service interactions in shaping consumer perceptions. The items proposed account for the dynamism of the setting including the heterogeneity possible due to high service levels. The scale indicates how certain consumer perceptions, as outlined in the dimensions of the proposed scale, are likely to influence consumer outcome behaviors. Managerially, the scale provides a more precise understanding of consumer perceptions within restaurants. As such, the scale can serve as an interesting positioning tool as well a method to evaluate consumer perceptions of restaurants.     

Understanding Cosmopolitanism and Brand Origin Recognition Accuracy: The Moderating Effect of Need for Cognition

This paper investigates whether cosmopolitan individuals have a greater knowledge of brand origins compared to non-cosmopolitans. The moderating effect of need for cognition is tested. Additionally, this work tests whether the level of confidence in assigning a country of origin to a brand affects brand attitude. The results show that cosmopolitan individuals have significantly higher brand origin recognition accuracy scores than non-cosmopolitans. Second, an interaction is found between cosmopolitanism and need for cognition to impact the brand origin recognition accuracy. Third, when individuals are more confident about the origin of a brand, brand attitude increases.     

An economic assessment of the Common Market Organization for bananas in the European Union

The main objective of this paper is to provide some estimates of how the world banana market has been affected by the Common Market Organization (CMO) for bananas established in the European Union (EU) on 1 July 1993, and modified in April 1994. We quantify the effects of the new EU regulation on world and EU prices, on the structure of EU imports from Latin American countries, African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries and EU regional suppliers, on the pattern of consumption in the various EU member states, and on consumers' and producers' welfare using a static partial equilibrium model of the world banana market. Simulation results suggest that the two key variables in determining the effects of the CMO are the size of the tariff quota on dollar and non-traditional ACP bananas and the capacity of ACP countries to exhaust their ACP contingent share.     

Ripeness and Grief in Conflict Analysis

In assessing the timing of a conflict resolution effort, one of the most frequently used explanatory frameworks is ripeness theory. Despite its popularity, ripeness theory has some limitations: poorly established generalization outside international situations, empirical validation is difficult to objectify, limited consideration of non-rational factors, and low predictability. The purpose of our study is to contribute to enriching ripeness theory by bringing in the theory of grief developed by Elisabeth Kubler-Ross. The anchovy fishing conflict in the Bay of Biscay (off the coast of France and Spain) lends itself to this type of analysis, as it is a conflict that has seen many reversals, making the place of resolution efforts hard to explain. It is from this perspective that grief theory is put forward as a complementary explanatory model. The model is tested using an original methodology that has the merit of being reproducible through the lexical analysis of newspaper articles. The results, confirming the grief model’s relevance, can then be proposed as an enhancement to ripeness theory by incorporating the grief model. This improvement leads to a better understanding of the issues of initiating a conflict resolution effort.     

Cultural and language effects on Chinese bilinguals' and Canadians' responses to advertising

The first objective of this study was to examine how Hong Kong Chinese and Anglo-Canadians differed in their perceptions of the honesty and forcefulness of a message source in informational advertising. A second objective was to explore the reaction of bilingual Chinese subjects to an advertisement and questionnaire administered either in their native language or in their second language. An experiment was carried out with Anglo-Canadian and Chinese students. Findings revealed that the former perceived significantly greater source honesty and less forcefulness in the ad compared to the latter group exposed to the instrument in their native language. The comparison of the English language and Chinese language treatments for the Chinese subjects revealed that the former perceived significantly greater source honesty, significantly less perception of forcefulness on the part of the source, and developed significantly greater attitudes towards the brand than the latter, similar to that found for the Anglo subjects. These results help to confirm the operation of a cultural accommodation process.     

The valuation of nature-linked bonds with exchange rate risk

This paper develops an arbitrage approach to pricing insurance bonds that bear currency risk. Bondholders are shown to have a short position on path-dependent digital options written on risk-tracking indices. It implements the technique of forward-neutral change of numeraire and comes down to computing first-passage-time distributions of drifted Brownian motions. We derive closed-form formulas or perform simulations depending on whether interest rates are deterministic or stochastic. Along the way, we evaluate outside-barrier currency call options. Then this research studies the effects of both nature risk and exchange rate uncertainty and shows that the former is more significant than the latter.     

The Impact of Electronic Clock Auction Systems on Shellfish Prices: Econometric Evidence from a Structural Change Model

Economic theory suggests that different auction systems may lead to different price equilibria under specific conditions. By changing the trading rules, the introduction of electronic clock auction systems (ECAS) on primary fish markets is likely to modify the price formation process. A relationship between the prices of live prawns (Nephrops norvegicus) in two French ports where different ECAS have been successively introduced is estimated through two univariate models and a vector autoregressive model applied to stationary weekly data series. Using a recent multiple break searching procedure (Econometrica, Vol. 66, 1998, 47; Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 18, 2003, 1; Econometrics Journal, Vol. 6, 2003, 72), a single structural change matching the date of implementation is discovered in the two ports and shows a different impact partly explained by the type of auction system in force. The introduction of the Euro in January 2002 also appeared to play an influential role in the adoption of electronic clock auction markets.     

Consumer reactions to crowded retail settings: Cross‐cultural differences between North America and the Middle East

Most of the research dealing with consumer–consumer interactions emphasizes the negative consequences of sharing the service experience with other consumers. Crowding, in particular, represents one of the important environmental factors affecting consumers' retail experience. However, recent studies in the context of hedonic services (e.g., amusement parks, concerts, etc.) have mentioned that crowds may potentially enhance consumers' service experience. The present study aims at demonstrating the presence of these positive consumer responses in a crowded hedonic situation, while investigating the influence of cultural differences in crowd‐related issues. With the use of consumers from different cultures (North America and the Middle East), reactions to similarly crowded situations in a hedonic situation are compared. Results suggest that Middle Eastern respondents perceive both a lower level of density and appreciate crowded situations more than their North American counterparts. Potential explanations are discussed. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.