Information and \sigma -algebras

In this work, we clarify the relationship between the information that an agent receives from a signal, from an experiment or from his own ability to determine the true state of nature that occurs and the information that an agent receives from a $\sigma $ -algebra. We show that, for countably generated $\sigma $ -algebras, the larger it is, the larger the information is. The same is true for general $\sigma $ -algebras after the removal of a negligible set of states.     

Periodograms on fiscal illusion: discussing the cycle lengths of public finances in European countries

In this article, we study the duration of public finance cycles in 12 European countries since 1960. We applied periodogram techniques on the levels of fiscal illusion found for these established democracies and tested the statistical significance of the Fourier frequency peaks. Our empirical efforts revealed that most of the cycles in these countries could be characterized as long-term cycles (approximately 30 years), embodying subcycles of approximately 15 years. These findings show that in addition to the commonly studied electoral cycles or real business cycles, our democracies demonstrate extended public finance cycles that extend over various legislative tenures ruled by different political parties.     

A cause for policy concern: the expansion of household credit in middle-income economies

This article discusses the significance of the recent growth in household credit across a range of middle-income economies. This growth is understood primarily as a result of policy, including the promotion of individual borrowing as a means to fund access to housing, education and health. A formal model of credit extension and allocation is developed, establishing that consumption lending makes a comparatively stronger contribution to aggregate profitability as well as financial fragility than production lending. Consumption lending may be understood to create distinctive endogenous tendencies to credit-market instability. The findings point to the need for a critical reconsideration of reliance on this lending for social and macroeconomic policy.     

Inequality and criminality revisited: further evidence from Brazil

The objective of this study is to shed light on the determinants of criminality rates in Brazil. A panel data model was estimated using Brazilian states’ data. Our main result suggests that income inequality plays an important role in the determination of the crime rate. Furthermore, there are evidence suggesting that both unemployment and urbanization rates are positively related to crime. Based on a GMM approach we find the existence of an “inertial effect” on criminality. Besides that, the GMM results show that public security spending is effective in reducing criminality rates. Contrary to the common wisdom, we could not find evidence that poverty increases violent crimes. Finally, we have evidence that income inequality Granger causes crime, but not the reverse.     

Special issue on advanced methods to measure tourism impacts. Editors’ introduction

Portuguese Economic Journal -     

The innovation performance of MNE subsidiaries and local embeddedness: evidence from an emerging economy

We examine the innovation performance of MNE subsidiaries and their embeddedness in sources of local knowledge in a policy framework within the context of an emerging economy. Based on first-hand evidence from multiple case studies, we found that: (1) there was variability between the subsidiaries in terms of the cumulative manner and speed at which they improved their innovation performance over time, using progressively levels of accumulated capability as a proxy; (2) these differences in innovation performance improvement reflected heterogeneity between the subsidiaries in terms of the learning efforts made to acquire knowledge from local organizations; (3) the varied frequency in which the subsidiaries developed such local relationships reflects their differing responses to a common industrial policy that makes use of tax incentives to stimulate such links. The paper reveals the limitations of this conventional type of industrial policy in stimulating industrial development and the embeddedness of MNEs. It also suggests that a new direction for policy, which incorporates public–private negotiations and a focus on the firm-centred building of innovation capabilities, should be pursued in order to accelerate the innovation performance progress of latecomer firms.     

Strategic decisions on bilateral bidding behavior: evidence from a wholesale electricity market

This article analyzes the strategic bilateral bidding behavior in the Spanish electricity wholesale market (OMEL). The collection of data includes information regarding weekly averages of spot prices, the quantity bid in the wholesale market, the quantities purchased in the wholesale market and sold in the open market, and the behavior of conduct parameters for the period from January 2002 to April 2007 for the four largest firms of the Spanish electricity market: Endesa, Iberdrola, Unión Fenosa and Hidrocantábrico. This article employs the New Empirical Industrial Organization approach. The empirical analysis was based on the autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration and on the Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality tests to validate the standard version of the theoretical formulation of the standard Cournot model, and its theoretical extension, to encompass the hypothesis of the presence of bid interdependence for electricity quantities sold and bought in the Spanish electricity wholesale market. The results of cointegration and causality analysis reinforce the empirical results of the extended Cournot model with the inclusion of the two main bidding variables that solved the optimization problem of profit maximization for each of the four firms analyzed.     

Global and Extreme Dependence Between Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns in European Markets

The authors investigate the global and extreme dependence structure between investor sentiment and stock returns in 7 European stock markets (Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Portugal, and the UK), over the period 1985–2015. Global dependence refers to the correlation of changes in sentiment and stock returns over the whole range of these 2 variables, and extreme dependence refers to the local correlation of high (i.e. asymptotic) changes in sentiment and high stock returns. Using copula models and a bootstrap procedure, 6 statistical tests are performed for this purpose. Among the results of the tests, the authors highlight those that provide evidence of contemporaneous lower extreme dependence and contemporaneous upper extreme independence between sentiment and returns. As policy implications, these results suggest that financial stability can be promoted if regulators consider the impact of their decisions on investor sentiment. Also, the results seem to support the arguments in favor of short selling ban during turmoil periods. Finally, overall, the results are relevant for both investors and regulators and reinforce the importance of considering investor sentiment to better understand the behavior of financial markets.