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Quality & Quantity - The study based on an online survey covering 655 researchers from hard and soft sciences addresses the influence of different conditions on academic publishing. Results...     

EFFECTS OF FEDERAL CONSTITUTIONAL GRANTS IN BRAZILIAN MUNICIPALITIES

The objective of the present study is to verify the flypaper effect of 476 Brazilian municipalities from 2005 to 2012, considering the new variables as instruments of grants. Political alignment, alignment of the party, and coalition of the mayor with the federal president and of the state governor were considered as instruments of grants. A municipal tax autonomy index was considered as a control variable, which represents the percentage of local taxes in the municipal total revenues. The results allow concluding that the flypaper effect exists in Brazilian municipalities and is intensified by the alignment of the representatives in the same way of theoretical literature (Hamilton 1983; Hines & Thaler 1995; Inman 2008) and previous empirical studies in Brazil. Moreover, evidences of higher flypaper effect were found in municipalities with low tax autonomy.     

Synergies and price trends in sequential auctions

In this paper we consider sequential second-price auctions where an individual's value for a bundle of objects is either greater than the sum of the values for the objects separately (positive synergy) or less than the sum (negative synergy). We show that the existence of positive synergies implies declining expected prices. When synergies are negative, expected prices are increasing. There are several corollaries. First, the seller is indifferent between selling the objects simultaneously as a bundle or sequentially when synergies are positive. Second, when synergies are negative, the expected revenue generated by the simultaneous auction can be larger or smaller than the expected revenue generated by the sequential auction. In addition, in the presence of positive synergies, an option to buy the additional object at the price of the first object is never exercised in the symmetric equilibrium and the seller's revenue is unchanged. Under negative synergies, in contrast, if there is an equilibrium where the option is never exercised, then equilibrium prices may either increase or decrease and, therefore, the net effect on the seller's revenue of the introduction of an option is ambiguous. Finally, we examine a special case with asymmetric players who have distinct synergies. In this example, even if one player has positive synergies and the other has negative synergies, it is still possible for expected prices to decline.Received: 12 December 2000, Accepted: 1 May 2002, JEL Classification: D44Flavio Menezes acknowledges the financial support from ARC (Grant A000000055) and CNPq. Monteiro acknowledges the financial support from CNPq and the hospitality of CERSEM where part of this paper has been written. We thank Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans, Peter Sørensen and two anonymous referees for useful comments.     

Land Invasions,Insecure Property Rights and Production Decisions

This paper investigates empirically the effect of land invasions on farm production decisions. The main hypothesis is that more invasions in a region are associated with lower investment, and in particular a bias towards annual crops as opposed to long‐term crops. We use a county‐level dataset for the state of Paraná, Brazil, from 2003 to 2007, with 1,995 observations. The panel data structure allows us to control for fixed effects, such as the formalisation of land titles and land concentration, which might be correlated with the intensity of invasions. An instrumental variable fixed effects model was estimated to avoid other sources of bias. Our main finding is that land invasions are associated with lower long‐term crop production and a higher percentage of annual crops, which could accelerate land degradation, and undermine environmental sustainability.     

Adopt the euro? The GME approach

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the degree of financial integration achieved in the European Union based on covered interest parity and using Generalized Maximum Entropy. EU countries are divided into two groups according to their current situation with respect to the adoption of the euro. Financial integration before the adoption of the euro is analyzed for the countries that adopted the euro in 1999. Similarly, current financial integration is evaluated for non-euro EU countries. Besides the importance of comparing the situation of the non-euro EU countries with the situation of the euro EU countries previous to the euro adoption, which may be useful to evaluate an eventual decision of the non-euro members to adopt the euro, it is interesting to analyze the performance of Generalized Maximum Entropy. Generalized Maximum Entropy has the ability to estimate the parameters of a regression model without imposing any constrains on the probability distribution of errors and it is robust even when we have ill-posed problems. Overall our results suggest that the degree of financial integration on non-euro countries is lower than the degree of financial integration that existed among euro adopting countries before the adoption of the euro.     

Corruption and auctions

We investigate how corruption affects the outcome of a first-price auction (bidding behavior, efficiency and the seller’s expected revenue). The auctioneer approaches the winner to offer the possibility of a reduction in his bid in exchange for a bribe. The bribe can be a percentage of the difference between the winning and the second-highest bid or a fixed amount. We show that there exists a symmetric bidding strategy equilibrium that is monotone, i.e., higher valuation buyers bid higher. Corruption does not affect efficiency but both the auctioneer’s expected bribe and the seller’s expected revenue depend on the format of the bribe payments. We also find the optimal bribe scheme.     

Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models

Banking crises are rare events, but when they occur, their consequences are often dramatic. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the toolkit of early warning models that is available to policy makers by exploring the dynamics and exuberances embedded in a panel dataset that covers 22 European countries over four decades (from 1970Q1 to 2012Q4). The in- and out-of-sample forecast performances of several (dynamic) probit models are evaluated, with the objective of developing common vulnerability indicators with early warning properties. The results obtained show that adding dynamic components and exuberance indicators to the models improves the performances of early warning models significantly.     

A systematic mapping study of process mining

This study systematically assesses the process mining scenario from 2005 to 2014. The analysis of 705 papers evidenced ‘discovery’ (71%) as the main type of process mining addressed and ‘categorical prediction’ (25%) as the main mining task solved. The most applied traditional technique is the ‘graph structure-based’ ones (38%). Specifically concerning computational intelligence and machine learning techniques, we concluded that little relevance has been given to them. The most applied are ‘evolutionary computation’ (9%) and ‘decision tree’ (6%), respectively. Process mining challenges, such as balancing among robustness, simplicity, accuracy and generalization, could benefit from a larger use of such techniques.