A risk assessment model for banks

Summary. This paper proposes a model to assess risk for banks. Its main innovation is to incorporate endogenous interaction among banks, where the actual risk an individual bank bears also depends on its interaction with other banks and investors. We develop a two-period general equilibrium model with three active heterogeneous banks, incomplete markets, and endogenous default. The model is calibrated against UK banking data and therefore can be implemented as a risk assessment tool for regulators and central banks. We address the impact of monetary and regulatory policy, credit and capital shocks in the real and financial sectors.We are grateful to Lea Zicchino, an anonymous referee, seminar participants at the Bank of England, and the third Conference in Research in Economic Theory and Econometrics, Syros, for helpful comments. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of England.This revised version was published online in January 2005 with corrections to the Cover date.     

The bias in Black-Scholes/Black implied volatility: An analysis of equity and energy markets

In this paper we examine the extent of the bias between Black and Scholes (1973)/Black (1976) implied volatility and realized term volatility in the equity and energy markets. Explicitly modeling a market price of volatility risk, we extend previous work by demonstrating that Black-Scholes is an upward-biased predictor of future realized volatility in S&P 500/S&P 100 stock-market indices. Turning to the Black options-on-futures formula, we apply our methodology to options on energy contracts, a market in which crises are characterized by a positive correlation between price-returns and volatilities: After controlling for both term-structure and seasonality effects, our theoretical and empirical findings suggest a similar upward bias in the volatility implied in energy options contracts. We show the bias in both Black-Scholes/Black implied volatilities to be related to a negative market price of volatility risk. JEL Classification G12 · G13     

Bonuses and Non-Public Information in Publicly Traded Firms

Recent research in accounting explores how firms use “individual” or “non-financial” measures of performance in executive compensation contracts. We model a firm that conditions bonus payments to executives on information that is not available to those outside the firm. This raises two issues. First, market participants may use the magnitude of such payments to infer the non-public information. Second, because information that is non-public is, by extension, non-verifiable, the firm cannot write explicit contracts based on it. Combining the relational incentive contracts and financial signaling literatures, we examine equilibria of a signaling game in which bonus payments from a firm to a manager convey non-public information regarding the firm’s future cash flows. Our main result is that increases in corporate myopia can, under some conditions, lead to increased profits. This finding is contrary to that typically found in financial signaling models.     

Comparison of randomization techniques for low-discrepancy sequences in finance

This paper deals with comparisons of low-discrepancy sequences in terms of actual performance through numerical computation for option pricing. For that purpose, we construct a variety of randomized low-discrepancy sequences based on classical low-discrepancy sequences. A randomization structure by coordinate-wise and digit-wise permutations proves to give excellent results regardless of the classical low-discrepancy sequences. This paper represents only the author’s personal opinion, and has absolutely nothing to do with his affiliation.     

A Modified GARCH Model with Spells of Shocks

The GARCH model is modified to capture the effect on volatilities of the consecutive number of positive or negative shocks. The new model is tested against the Shanghai Shcomp and Nikkei225 indices and found particularly useful in analyzing the Shcomp index. Similarly, the EGARCH model is extended along the same line as the GARCH model and is applied to the same sets of data. Stationarity of the new GARCH (1, 1) model is proved, and also derived is the asymptotic distribution of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator.     

Price and Volume Effects Associated with 2003’s Major Reorganization of German Stock Indices

This paper investigates whether the announcement and/or the implementation of the major changes in March 2003 to the German stock index landscape led to significant price and volume effects. We examine five stock subgroups that were either removed from their former indices or that were added to existing or newly constructed indices. Around the announcement date, stocks in these groups are subject to (cumulative) positive average abnormal marketadjusted returns, whereas the average trading volume tends to decrease. Around the actual change date, (cumulative) abnormal returns are mainly positive, while findings on abnormal transaction volumes are fairly heterogeneous. Our empirical results are not supported by any of the prevailing theoretical explanations of market reactions to index changes, but, as an important result, all findings depend crucially on the chosen benchmark model.The authors are grateful to two anonymous referees for insightful comments and suggestions and for helpful discussions with Stephan Schmidt-Tank. They would like to thank Fabian Zettler for his assistance in collecting the data.     

SME Foreign Direct Investment: An Examination of the Joint Venture Experiences of German and U.K. Small and Medium Sized Firms in China

Joint Ventures (JVs) have become popular vehicles for foreign market servicing, but few studies have focused on the joint venturing activities of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs). This article examines the activities of 9 U.K. and 12 German SME joint ventures in China. Based on a questionnaire survey and in-depth case interviews, it reveals that the JVs, though successful, are not without their problems and the experiences are similar to those of large multi-national enterprises. As the key to success is the choice of the joint venture partner, assistance is required to help SMEs identify and select appropriate partners.     

Defining the ‘Social’ in ‘Social Entrepreneurship’: Altruism and Entrepreneurship

What is social entrepreneurship? In, particular, what’s so social about it? Understanding what social entrepreneurship is enables researchers to study the phenomenon and policy-makers to design measures to encourage it. However, such an understanding is lacking partly because there is no universally accepted definition of entrepreneurship as yet. In this paper, we suggest a definition of social entrepreneurship that intuitively accords with what is generally accepted as entrepreneurship and that captures the way in which entrepreneurship may be altruistic. Based on this we provide a taxonomy of social entrepreneurship and identify a number of real cases from Asia illustrating the different forms it could take.     

What Global Emission Regulations Should Corporations Support?

In their role as political actors and lobbyists, corporations have responsibilities to help determine the existence and content of global regulations of pollutants. The ethical nature of those responsibilities is highly sensitive to the assumed normative framework. This paper compares several frameworks by modeling them as differently weighted versions of utilitarianism. Under a strict neoclassical approach, corporations have a narrow obligation to maximize profits, which generally entails opposing emission regulations. In contrast, a stakeholder approach as well as Marxian and common ethics approaches suggest that firms have an obligation to actively support sustainable emission regulations with the following properties

Modelling Entrepreneurship: Unifying The Equilibrium and Entry/Exit Approach

Two approaches can be distinguished with respect to modelling entrepreneurship: (i) the approach focusing on the net development of the number of entrepreneurs in an equilibrium framework and (ii) the approach focusing on the entries and exits of entrepreneurs. In this paper we unify these approaches to arrive at a model explaining the equilibrium and actual number of entrepreneurs and the entry and exit rate of entrepreneurs simultaneously and consistently. We apply our unified approach to the Netherlands using self-employment data for the 1960–1999 period. We find error-correction of about 20% per year and a very different situation in terms of disequilibrium before and after the early 1980s. Periods of high unemployment appear to be characterized by both high entry and high exit rates.