Output gap measurement and the New Keynesian Phillips curve for China

The New Keynesian Phillips curve implies that the output gap, the deviation of the actual output from its natural level due to nominal rigidities, drives the dynamics of inflation relative to expected inflation and lagged inflation. This paper exploits the empirical success of the New Keynesian Phillips curve in explaining China's inflation dynamics with a new measure of the output gap. We estimate the output gap using the Bayesian multivariate Beveridge–Nelson decomposition method, based on a multivariate dynamic model featuring distinct interactions among inflation, money, and real output in China. The empirical results using quarterly data spanning 1979–2010 show that the new measure of the output gap outperforms the traditional measures in fitting the New Keynesian Phillips curve. This result provides useful insights for inflation dynamics and monetary policy analysis in China.     

Technology evaluation in Taiwan's technology industries: Strategies, trajectories, and innovations

Technology evaluation, as an organizational process, is the essential ability to comprehend the values of technologies very soon after they emerge. Meanwhile, the technology evaluation process is inevitably influenced by the firm's industrial context, such as its technological trajectory. This study defines technology evaluation strategy in terms of the processes, methods, and participants involved, and uses this definition as a taxonomy to explore different types of technology evaluation strategies. A survey on the technological industries is conducted to explore types of technology evaluation strategies and their relationships with the advantages of different types of innovation under the effects of different technological trajectories. The survey identifies four types of technology evaluation strategies, namely, those of the flexible executive strategist, the emergent executive intuitionist, the deliberate quantitative strategist, and the deliberate consensual strategist, are identified. This study has found that certain types of technology evaluation strategies have better innovation performances than the others. The patterns of technological trajectories are also found to influence a firm's technology evaluation strategy and the advantages of certain types of innovations. The established explanations of the relationships among the technological trajectory, innovation type, and technology evaluation strategies may guide technology businesses to develop a better technology evaluation capability. The theoretical framework developed in this research enriches the strategic management literature with a new taxonomy for technology evaluation strategies.     

On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios

Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008 AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142 trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9 billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences.     

Superexponential long-term trends in information technology

Moore's Law has created a popular perception of exponential progress in information technology. But is the progress of IT really exponential? In this paper we examine long time series of data documenting progress in information technology gathered by [1]. We analyze six different historical trends of progress for several technologies grouped into the following three functional tasks: information storage, information transportation (bandwidth), and information transformation (speed of computation). Five of the six datasets extend back to the nineteenth century. We perform statistical analyses and show that in all six cases one can reject the exponential hypothesis at statistically significant levels. In contrast, one cannot reject the hypothesis of superexponential growth with decreasing doubling times. This raises questions about whether past trends in the improvement of information technology are sustainable.     

Triggers for virtual customer integration in the development of medical equipment — From a manufacturer and a user's perspective

Virtual customer integration (VCI) involves customers throughout all stages of the new product development process. Firms across industries have started to experiment with virtual user integration and expect to utilize their knowledge, creativity, and judgment. However, little research exists that looks at the motivations of customers and managers to engage in virtual product development projects. In this paper we try to identify the triggers for virtual customer integration (VCI) from the manager's as well as from the customer's perspective. Using Ajzen's Theory of Planned Behavior we aim at explaining managers' motivation for the adoption of VCI based on a sample of 104 managers engaged in the product development process of manufacturing firms of medical technology. Drawing on motive research, we test six categories of customer motivations to engage in VCI projects on a sample of 105 users of medical technology. The results show that for mangers subjective norms and attitude predict the intention to use VCI. For customers, interest in innovation and product improvement are the most important drivers, whereas monetary compensation and prestige are not significant, and surprisingly the desire to help people even has a negative impact on the participation of VCI.     

Managing radical innovation: an overview of emergent strategy issues

Despite differences in definitions, researchers understand that radical innovation within an organization is very different from incremental innovation , and and that it is critical to the long-term success of firms. Unfortunately, research has also shown that it is often difficult to get support for radical projects in large firms [14], where internal cultures and pressures often push efforts toward more low risk, immediate reward, incremental projects. Interestingly, we know considerably less about the effective management of the product development process in the radical than in an incremental context. The purpose of this study is to explore the process of radical new product development from a strategic perspective, and to outline key observations and challenges that managers face as they move these projects to market. The findings presented here represent the results of a longitudinal (since 1995), multidisciplinary study of radical innovation projects. A multiple case study design was used to explore the similarities and differences in management practices applied to twelve radical innovation projects in ten large, established North American firms. The findings are grouped into three high-level strategic themes. The first theme, market scope, discusses the challenges associated with the pursuit of familiar versus unfamiliar markets for radical innovation. The second theme of competency management identifies and discusses strategic challenges that emerge as firms stretch themselves into new and unfamiliar territory. The final theme relates to the people issues that emerge as both individuals and the project teams themselves try to move radical projects forward in organizations that are not necessarily designed to support such uncertainty.A breadth of subtopics emerge within and across this framework relating to such ideas as risk management, product cannibalization, team composition, and the search for a divisional home. Taken together, our observations reinforce the emerging literature that shows that project teams engaging in radical innovation encounter a much different set of challenges than those typically faced by NPD teams engaged in incremental innovation.     

Managing seller-buyer new product development relationships for customized products: a contingency model based on transaction cost analysis and empirical test

Sellers often customize their product offerings in order to increase the value offered to individual buyers and gain a competitive advantage over the seller’s competitors. However, such customization has a downside—it usually requires considerable seller-buyer interactions aimed at matching the seller’s technological capabilities with the buyer’s needs, which can pose exchange risks such as the safeguarding and adaptation problems noted in the transaction cost analysis literature. In the present study, we develop a contingency model to investigate the impact of product customization on sellers’ perceived relationship satisfaction and subsequent expectations of relationship continuity. We draw on the logic of transaction cost analysis to hypothesize that product customization’s effect on satisfaction and continuity may be moderated by three activities that sellers may engage in during the new product development (NPD) process: education, product knowledge generation, and joint new product development.Our substantive hypotheses were tested with data from a national survey of 296 small to medium size firms in several high-tech industries using a series of hierarchical OLS regression models. Overall, we found mixed support for our hypotheses. The results indicated that joint new product development reduced the negative effect of product customization on seller satisfaction and enhanced customization’s positive effect on continuity, as expected. Contrary to our expectations, product knowledge generation activities increased the negative effect of customization on satisfaction; it also had no significant moderating impact on continuity. Buyer education activities were found to reduce the negative impact of customization on satisfaction, but showed no moderating effect on continuity.This study offers important theoretical and managerial implications. It is one of the first to rely on transaction cost analysis as a basis for examining how various relationship activities conducted during the new product development process moderate product customization’s effect on qualitative outcomes. Whereas traditional NPD processes have emphasized unilateral approaches to product development, our study provides evidence of how bilateral approaches to NPD can benefit sellers of innovations. We provide new insights for managers to consider when deciding whether to engage buyers early on and then continue interacting with them throughout the product development process when developing customized products.     

The dynamics of factors affecting the adoption of innovations

An abundance of IT innovations are constantly struggling for market acceptance. Various models have been proposed in the literature in order to aid understanding of the principles behind the adoption of IT innovations, but most of them implicitly assume that the factors explaining adoption decisions do not change over time. This study challenges that assumption and adds to the existing literature by investigating the dynamics of the factors influencing adoption. Our general proposition is that the driving factors in adopting innovations will change as the diffusion of the innovation in the market progresses. A large-scale empirical study was carried out among medium-sized companies in a variety of European countries and industries concerning the adoption of enterprise resource planning (ERP) software. The findings strongly indicate that the factors affecting late adoption of ERP differ significantly from the factors explaining early adoption. At early stages of the diffusion process adoption tends to be especially driven by a combination of internal strategic drives and attitudes of the firm together with external forces like industry competition and supplier activities. Later on, the mix of adoption stimulating factors seems to be focusing more on implementation issues such as the scalability of the system, the number of seats and the yearly available budget. The study leads to both new methodological insights and substantive conclusions that also have practical implications.     

CAPITAL FLOWS AND EXPORT EXTERNALITIES: AN EAST ASIAN CURE FOR THE DUTCH DISEASE?*

The analysis so far suggests several conclusions regarding policy under externalities in tradables production. It shows that conventional profit-maximizing solutions lead to too much investment, too much “up front” consumption, high period 1 real exchange rates, and underproduction of tradables. In this setting, it is possible that an improvement in an economy's access to foreign capital will lead to welfare losses. These distortions are most efficiently corrected by a tradables output subsidy, equal to the externality. This subsidy should be increased if the economy's access to foreign capital markets improves. In the absence of such subsidies, however, incentives to reduce investment and postpone consumption may be appropriate second-best policies. These policies, in effect, drive a wedge between rates of return on investment and foreign interest rates. Therefore the optimal policy will also require controls on foreign capital seeking to take advantage of higher interest rates at home than abroad.     

Organizing and integrating marketing and purchasing in business markets: An introduction to the special issue, issues and implications

The article is the introductory paper to the special issue on “Organizing and Integrating Marketing and Purchasing in Business markets”. It analyses the different organizational issues in the marketing and purchasing interfaces by an extensive analysis of the literature. It introduces the different contributions to the special issue and draw some reflections on further research steps.