Forecasting monthly and quarterly time series using STL decomposition

This paper is a re-examination of the benefits and limitations of decomposition and combination techniques in the area of forecasting, and also a contribution to the field, offering a new forecasting method. The new method is based on the disaggregation of time series components through the STL decomposition procedure, the extrapolation of linear combinations of the disaggregated sub-series, and the reaggregation of the extrapolations to obtain estimates for the global series. Applying the forecasting method to data from the NN3 and M1 Competition series, the results suggest that it can perform well relative to four other standard statistical techniques from the literature, namely the ARIMA, Theta, Holt-Winters’ and Holt’s Damped Trend methods. The relative advantages of the new method are then investigated further relative to a simple combination of the four statistical methods and a Classical Decomposition forecasting method. The strength of the method lies in its ability to predict long lead times with relatively high levels of accuracy, and to perform consistently well for a wide range of time series, irrespective of the characteristics, underlying structure and level of noise of the data.     

Booking horizon forecasting with dynamic updating: A case study of hotel reservation data

A highly accurate demand forecast is fundamental to the success of every revenue management model. As is often required in both practice and theory, we aim to forecast the accumulated booking curve, as well as the number of reservations expected for each day in the booking horizon. To reduce the dimensionality of this problem, we apply singular value decomposition to the historical booking profiles. The forecast of the remaining part of the booking horizon is dynamically adjusted to the earlier observations using the penalized least squares and historical proportion methods. Our proposed updating procedure considers the correlation and dynamics of bookings both within the booking horizon and between successive product instances. The approach is tested on real hotel reservation data and shows a significant improvement in forecast accuracy.     

Human capital revisited: The role of experience and education when controlling for performance and cognitive skills

Human capital theory predicts that differences in wages arise because of differences in human capital. The latter can be accumulated in two ways: through experience and education. Using matched firm–worker data for the Ghanaian Manufacturing sector we first test whether changes in wages over the life cycle reflect changes in performance, following the methodology of Medoff and Abraham [Medoff, J.L., &; Abraham, K.G. (1980). Experience, Performance, and Earnings. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 95(4), 703-736; Medoff, J.L., &; Abraham, K.G. (1981). Are Those Paid More Really More Productive? The Case of Experience. Journal of Human Resources, 16(2), 186–216]. We find that wage–seniority profiles are independent of performance – a result that holds when controlling for firm fixed effects. Extending the analysis, we include a control for on-the-job-training and find that it does not attenuate the seniority profile, which is also at odds with human capital theory. We do find however that firm characteristics play an important role. Wage–seniority profiles are steeper in large firms, but performance profiles are not, suggesting that the results from Medoff and Abraham are specific to large firms. We then assess the role of education. Our results confirm that education is important for the allocation to job levels. Using data on cognitive ability, we also find that the effect of education on wages is at least partially because it signals cognitive ability. We also find evidence that the returns to education are not related to performance, while the returns to cognitive ability are.     

Market growth through mergers and acquisitions: The role of the relationship marketing manager in sustaining performance

This research suggests that firms considering a merger and acquisition strategy need to pay attention to the relationship marketing managers of the target firm and the implicit agreements that have kept them with the target firm. The results of this study convey that the joint activity of maintaining the implicit contracts and retaining the relationship marketing managers have a stabilizing and positive impact on the productivity of subordinate marketing employees. These employees are a key success factor that enables the target firm to function effectively after the acquisition.     

Relationship stability, trust and relational risk in marketing channels: Evidence from China

This paper provides an integrated framework for examining effects of relationship stability and trust on relational risk and for exploring the moderating effects of guanxi on the relationships between trust and relational risk in marketing channels. The framework is tested with 225 dyads of questionnaires about buyer-supplier relationships in the Chinese household appliances sector. The results indicate that relationship length and dyadic solidarity can reduce the relational risk perceived by buyers through goodwill trust in their suppliers, but can increase the perceived relational risk through trust in their competence. Guanxi helps to weaken the positive relationship between a buyer's trust in suppliers' competence and its perceived relational risk, and dyadic solidarity can directly lower relational risk. This paper makes clear that buyers locked in a stable relationship will face relational risk, and it further identifies the specific variables which impact on the relational risk and the paths from which relational risk comes.     

Criteria involved in evaluation of trade shows to visit

An organizer of trade shows (TSs) need to know the framework of criteria used by potential visitors in their ex-ante evaluation of trade shows. This paper comes to fill a gap in the published research, aiming to answer two research questions: which criteria are important for visitors in evaluating TSs to visit? And which is the underlying structure of criteria? A sample of retailers was interviewed and, after using a Confirmatory Factor Analysis, a measurement model was identified. The results confirm the underlying structure suggested by the integration of separate criteria or elements previously identified in other studies. Also, that the changes in the marketing orientation of companies have affected the evaluation criteria used by visitors. Additionally, the results show differences between visitants and exhibitors. The main disparity is the non-relevance of the marketing research criteria: TSs are a good marketing research tool for exhibitors but much more limited for visitors.     

Exploiting innovative opportunities in global purchasing: An assessment of ethical climate and relationship performance

Purchasing managers are expected to balance costs, innovation, supplier management, and corporate social responsibility while coordinating expanding areas of the corporation. The increased responsibilities and pressures to innovate brings purchasing managers into potentially increasingly difficult ethical dilemmas. In this study, we examine the relationships between organizational culture, learning, entrepreneurial innovation, and purchasing outcomes in different ethical climates. To address external business conditions that may influence innovation in purchasing, we also examine the moderating effects of technological and market turbulence. Data from 200 purchasing managers in multinational corporations were used to test the relationships through structural equation modeling. We find that entrepreneurial innovation positively affects the quality of the relationships among sourcing participants when operating in a climate valuing ethics. The study results are particularly relevant for managers concerned that establishing an ethical climate may restrict innovation in the purchasing process.     

Resource linkages and capability development

In this paper, we examine the different resource linkages sought by manufacturing firms through strategic alliance. We look closely at the impact of manufacturing activities on choice of resource linkage. Using a sample of Taiwanese firms, we found that product development ability and marketing distribution channels are the top priority resource linkages that Taiwanese manufacturing firms seek to establish. The authors also found it interesting that marketing know-how was not a resource commonly sought by Original Design and Manufacturing (ODM) firms, nor by Own-Brand Manufacturing (OBM) firms. Some implications are further discussed. Instead of outsourcing production to external suppliers, Taiwanese OBM firms remained committed to manufacturing as a core competence when they established their own brands overseas.     

Moving from basic offerings to value-added solutions: Strategies, barriers and alignment

Commoditization erodes the competitive differentiation of companies and often leads to a profit squeeze. Existing literature recommends the transition from basic product offerings to service-based value concepts in order to regain competitiveness in such a context. This paper explores the concrete efforts of suppliers in the commoditized electro-technical industry to create new non-price-based customer value. In this paper, a taxonomy of efforts is developed which builds on the competitive strategy and strategic marketing literature. Our research identifies barriers to the market introduction of these new value concepts. Observations in this industry lead to a framework that (1) proposes alternative step-by-step strategies for making the transition from basic products to service-based solutions, and (2) offers alignment suggestions for overcoming identified barriers. Migration paths to introducing new service-based value concepts are incremental rather than radical, and managers should complement their market approach with (a) value chain actions to create multilevel industry support and (b) an organizational alignment approach.