How Politicians Make Decisions: A Political Choice Experiment

The present paper reports on a political choice experiment with elected real-world politicians. A questionnaire on political and public issues is used to examine whether prospect theory predicts the responses of experts from the field better than rational choice theory. The results indicate that framing effects do not disappear with expertise.      

Determinants of the demand for education in Spain

The aim of this paper is to estimate an equation for household demand for both secondary and university education, using an estimation of the opportunity cost associated with the decision to invest in education. Limited dependent variable models are applied to the data provided by the Family Budget Survey 1991 for Spain. The results show that the social and economic status of the family has a comparatively greater impact on household expenditure on secondary education than on university education. The opportunity cost is also shown to be a decisive variable in the decision to invest in secondary education, although the results are less conclusive in the case of university education.     

A two factor model to combine US inflation forecasts

The combination of individual forecasts is often a useful tool to improve forecast accuracy. The most commonly used technique for forecast combination is the mean, and it has frequently proved hard to surpass. This study considers factor analysis to combine US inflation forecasts showing that just one factor is not enough to beat the mean and that the second one is necessary. The first factor is usually a weighted mean of the variables and it can be interpreted as a consensus forecast, while the second factor generally provides the differences among the variables and, since the observations are forecasts, it may be related with the dispersion in forecasting expectations and, in a sense, with its uncertainty. Within this approach, the study also revisits Friedman's hypothesis relating the level of inflation with expectations uncertainty at the beginning of the twenty-first century.     

Determining the number of factors after stationary univariate transformations

A very common practice when extracting factors from non-stationary multivariate time series is to differentiate each variable in the system. As a consequence, the ratio between variances and the dynamic dependence of the common and idiosyncratic differentiated components may change with respect to the original components. In this paper, we analyze the effects of these changes on the finite sample properties of several procedures to determine the number of factors. In particular, we consider the information criteria of Bai and Ng (Econometrica 70(1):191–221, 2002), the edge distribution of Onatski (Rev Econ Stat 92(4):1004–1016, 2010) and the ratios of eigenvalues proposed by Ahn and Horenstein (Econometrica 81(3):1203–1227, 2013). The performance of these procedures when implemented to differentiated variables depends on both the ratios between variances and dependencies of the differentiated factor and idiosyncratic noises. Furthermore, we also analyze the role of the number of factors in the original non-stationary system as well as of its temporal and cross-sectional dimensions. Finally, we implement the different procedures to determine the number of common factors in a system of inflation rates in 15 euro area countries.     

Capacity planning in hospital nursing: a model for minimum staff calculation

An aging population, emerging technology, heightening patient expectations, rising health care costs, shorter patient stays, and growing pressure to improve quality have made the management of nursing resources even more critical today. While approaching a model for staffing levels, the authors considered factors such as patient acuity, work redesign, and minimum quality standards. The methodology for analysis included estimating the time needed to complete nursing tasks and calculating the average number of tasks per patient. With respect to nursing quality measures, the study examined the adequacy of nursing documentation including admission history, assessments, nursing procedures, and discharge report as well as nursing-driven outcomes such as fall and phlebitis rates. Lastly, the authors determined the theoretical number of staff needed to provide nursing care according to quality standards.     

Socioeconomic status or noise? Tradeoffs in the generation of school quality information

This paper calculates a time series of simple, standard measures of schools' relative performance. These are drawn from a 1997–2004 panel of Chilean schools, using individual-level information on test scores and student characteristics for each year. The results suggest there is a stark tradeoff in the extent to which rankings generated using these measures: i) can be shown to be very similar to rankings based purely on students' socioeconomic status, and ii) are very volatile from year to year. At least in Chile, therefore, producing a meaningful ranking of schools that may inform parents and policymakers may be harder than is commonly assumed.     

Institutions and Cultural Heterogeneity as Determinants of National Income: A Random‐coefficients Stochastic Frontier Model

Previous research on total factor productivity (TFP) shows that cross‐country differences in income cannot be fully explained by stocks of capital (K), labor (L) and human capital (E). In addition, the omission of major production inputs or the use of proxies to estimate unobservable inputs leads to biased estimation results. This study addresses the above issues by employing a novel econometric approach and provides empirical evidence that a fixed production input, and therefore a country's income, is positively correlated with the existence of British‐style institutions and negatively correlated with cultural heterogeneity and Spanish‐style institutions. Our methodology is twofold. First, using data for 62 countries from 1980 to 2004, we regressed a random‐coefficients stochastic production frontier that allows estimating a fixed unobservable production input without using proxies. Second, the estimated fixed production input is shown to be related to colonial institutions and cultural heterogeneity by means of ordinary least squares and feasible generalized least squares regressions.     

Does the technological sourcing decision matter? Evidence from Spanish panel data

This paper extends previous analysis of the choice between internal and external R&D to consider the effect of this decision on productivity. Existing empirical research confirms that there is a positive relationship between technological assets and firm performance. However, few works have attempted to identify whether the technological sourcing decision taken by the firm affects productivity. The main finding of this paper is that the technological strategy developed by the firm does affect productivity. This issue is particularly novel as it incorporates the technological sourcing decision taken by the firm. The results we obtain indicate that the technological sourcing decision affects the relationship between technological capital and productivity. Thus, our findings suggest that the decision between internal and external R&D matters.     

Organizational learning and compensation strategies: Evidence from the Spanish chemical industry

This study explores the role of compensation strategies in promoting organizational learning capability. By analyzing a sample of 111 Spanish firms from the chemical industry, we highlight how compensation strategies can be used to influence employees' commitment to learning and shape their understanding of the overall purpose of the organization. We also show that inappropriate strategies can lead to short‐term efficiencies but damage longer‐term learning. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Technology Newness and Impact of Go/No-Go Criteria on New Product Success

This study shows that the relative effect of five dimensions of go/no-go criteria on new product success is contingent on the stage of the development process and newness of the technology. Specifically, strategic fit criteria are critical to new product success at the initial screening. Technical criteria are significantly correlated with product success only at the go-to-development decision gate. Market opportunity criteria relate positively with project success at the initial screening, the market launch gate and the post-launch review. Financial criteria correlate positively with success from the go-to-development decision to the first post-launch review. Customer-acceptance criteria stand out as equally important to success throughout the entire development process. In relation to the moderating effect of technology newness, it was found that customer acceptance and market opportunity criteria at the initial screening are more important for the success of low technologically innovative projects than for the success of high technologically innovative projects. At the initial screening, financial criteria exert a negative effect on the success of projects incorporating highly innovative technologies.