Does the Stock Market Overreact?

Research in experimental psychology suggests that, in violation of Bayes' rule, most people tend to “overreact” to unexpected and dramatic news events. This study of market efficiency investigates whether such behavior affects stock prices. The empirical evidence, based on CRSP monthly return data, is consistent with the overreaction hypothesis. Substantial weak form market inefficiencies are discovered. The results also shed new light on the January returns earned by prior “winners” and “losers.” Portfolios of losers experience exceptionally large January returns as late as five years after portfolio formation.     

OUTLOOK FOR THE EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION: THE MESSAGE FROM EASTERN EUROPE

The European Community (EC) seems headed toward monetary union, either with "permanently" fixed exchange rates or with a common currency. Ceteris paribus, the breakup of the Soviet empire in Eastern Europe makes monetary union less desirable. One can expect further shocks from the East. Analyzing stock markets' reactions to events in the East from late 1988 to early 1990 shows that these shocks typically differentially affect EC members, particularly Germany. These differential shocks often call for adjustments in relative national price levels, which can be accomplished most easily with exchange-rate adjustments. The likelihood of such pressures reduces the credibility of a system of pegged rates and makes the system more vulnerable to speculative runs. A common currency is more credible by its nature but may give an inflationary bias to the European Monetary Union.     

The Choice of Issuance Procedure and the Cost of Competitive and Negotiated Underwriting: an Examination of the Impact of Rule 50

Previous research suggests that firms choose negotiated issuance over competitive despite its apparently higher net interest cost. This result is shown to arise partly from failure to correct for a selectivity bias in the choice of issuance procedures. Two stage analysis is used in a model that includes qualitative and limited dependent variables to re-estimate the net interest cost difference between competitive and negotiated issues. Results support the hypothesis that the choice of issuance procedure is consistent with shareholder wealth maximization. Examination of debt issues subject to Rule 50 of the Public Utility Holding Company Act indicates that the regulation, as applied, is not effective.     

Acquisition of Divested Assets and Shareholders' Wealth

The divesting of corporate assets has become quite popular. Previous studies of divestitures have found conflicting impacts upon shareholders' wealth of the buying firm. This study measures the impacts of product-line relatedness between the acquiring firm and the divested unit and financial weakness of the selling firm upon the abnormal returns to the acquiring firm. Although the study finds that the impact of financial strength of the seller is ambiguous, the purchase of related assets produces more wealth than does the purchase of unrelated divested units. Further, firms that purchase related divested units have larger proportions of insider ownership.     

Consumerism and school uniforms

Consumer concerns about school uniforms are a recurring problem particularly in areas such as Northern Ireland characterized by low income and social deprivation. The General Consumer Council for Northern Ireland carried out a systematic in-depth investigation into the problem to assess current policy, practice and consumer concerns in the purchase of school uniforms. The research highlighted how school principals, who influence uniform policy, underestimate the cost of its provision and the significant relationship between the cost of uniforms and the type of school attended. Problems associated with the quality of uniforms emerge, as do parental and student concerns about the limited range of suppliers and support for ‘nearly new’ facilities in schools.