Pension roulette: have you bet too much on equities?

In the 1990s, funding pension obligations by investing in stocks looked smart. By 1999, the bull market had poured a collective $260 billion surplus into the pension coffers of the S&P 500, permitting the companies to record the year-to-year increases as additional income. But just two years later, the bear market had obliterated those gains, replacing them with a cavernous $240 billion deficit--which had to be offset by the unlucky firms' ongoing cash flows, wreaking havoc on their earnings, debt levels, and stock prices. Corporate executives may be blamed for this debacle. But they were only following the rules. Current accounting guidelines keep companies from recording pension liabilities and assets on their balance sheets, instead relegating them to the footnotes. That makes it hard to see the risk that market drops expose companies to. Board members and top executives need to look beyond distorted accounting numbers to the economic realities of pension plans. Once they do, they may be surprised to find that they would gain far greater value and flexibility by passively investing their pension funds entirely in bonds. A bond portfolio can be designed to meet precisely, and with virtual certainty, a company's pension obligation, thus eliminating the chance of a funding gap. The predictability of bond investments also stabilizes earnings and cash flow. The expanded corporate debt capacity that results can then be used to fuel growth or reduce the firm's overall cost of capital. Even without an overhaul of today's misguided accounting rules, there's little reason for companies' pension funds to hold anything other than bonds.     

Testing the validity of responses to contingent valuation questioning

One way of assessing the validity of results generated through the application of the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is through the analysis of response sensitivity to factors expected to have an influence. Scope testing involves presenting at least two alternative impact scenarios to population sub-samples and testing for differences between the estimates generated. Most applications of the CVM in Australia have not involved scope testing and those that have yielded mixed results. These studies are reviewed. The results of scope sensitivity and other validity tests are presented for a study aimed at estimating the value of environmental damage caused by dryland salinity in the Upper South East of South Australia.     

On tests concerning lines and planes in hyperspace

Summary As an application of tests of linear hypotheses methods are presented for determining confidence regions for intersections of several hyperplanes. These results constitute one generalization of Tocher’s method for point and interval estimates of a concurrent set of regression lines in the plane.     

Medium-sized charities and their advertising agencies: An exploratory investigation

Respondents in 103 medium-sized charities completed a mail questionnaire designed to explore the nature of the relationships between these charities and their advertising agencies. It emerged that some, but not all, of the factors known to influence interactions between agencies and their commercial clients were equally relevant within the charity sector. Variables crucial to charity clients' levels of satisfaction with their advertising agencies included agency provision of functional assistance with media planning and the creative design of advertisements, trust and an agency's willingness to act as a member of its client's team, and the ability to generate new ideas. Additionally, an agency's experience of work within the charity sector and its empathy with charitable aims, ideals and philosophies were key determinants of satisfaction ratings. Assistance with market research and public relations and an agency's ability to offer extensive ancillary services did not appear to exert significant influence.     

Bias from Farmer Self‐Selection in Genetically Modified Crop Productivity Estimates: Evidence from Indian Data

In the continuing debate over the impact of genetically modified (GM) crops on farmers of developing countries, it is important to accurately measure magnitudes such as farm‐level yield gains from GM crop adoption. Yet most farm‐level studies in the literature do not control for farmer self‐selection, a potentially important source of bias in such estimates. We use farm‐level panel data from Indian cotton farmers to investigate the yield effect of GM insect‐resistant cotton. We explicitly take into account the fact that the choice of crop variety is an endogenous variable which might lead to bias from self‐selection. A production function is estimated using a fixed‐effects model to control for selection bias. Our results show that efficient farmers adopt Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton at a higher rate than their less efficient peers. This suggests that cross‐sectional estimates of the yield effect of Bt cotton, which do not control for self‐selection effects, are likely to be biased upwards. However, after controlling for selection bias, we still find that there is a significant positive yield effect from adoption of Bt cotton that more than offsets the additional cost of Bt seed.     

The Interstate River Compact as a Water Allocation Mechanism: Efficiency Aspects

Interstate river compacts are widely used to allocate water among riparian states. Twenty-one compacts are currently in force in the western United States, and these compacts are mostly of two types: those that allocate a fixed amount or flow of water to individual states; and those that allocate percentages of available water to the riparian states. This study compares the performance of the two resulting allocations with that resulting from basin-wide optimization without compact constraints. While widely varying hydrologic and economic characteristics of river basins create a large set of possible outcomes, a range of stylized case studies indicates that percentage compacts are likely to generate greater net benefits and to result in more equitable risk-sharing than fixed compacts under many circumstances. In light of recent compact negotiations in the southeastern United States, it is recommended that efficiency analyses under present and future conditions be made a part of all compact negotiations.