Temporary Stabilizations, Sudden Stops, and Asset Prices

The authors study a temporary exchange-rate based stabilization plan in which agents face a sudden stop of capital inflows. The model generates a rising path of real interest rates in advance of the exchange rate collapse. This generates a time-dependent non-monotonic path of required premium on domestic assets. The model-generated asset price dynamics closely mimic their empirical counterpart, as witnessed during recent collapses of exchange-rate based stabilization plans. The model also reproduces consumption and foreign reserve dynamics that closely mimic the data.     

Reexamining dual-class stock

Snapchat’s initial public offering, which provided shares with no voting rights, is a culmination of the growing trend of dual-class shares. It contradicts the precept of one-share, one-vote that is essential for corporate democracy. Snapchat’s action caused an uproar among influential investors. In January 2017, a coalition of the world’s biggest money managers, which together control more than $17 trillion in assets, demanded a total ban on dual-class shares. We reason that the increasing prominence of dual-class stock is explained by the confluence of three economic trends: the growing importance of intangible investments, the rise of activist investors, and the decline of staggered boards and poison pills. A dual-class structure offers immunity against proxy contests initiated by short-term investors. It enables managers to ignore capital market pressures and to avoid myopic actions such as cutting research and development, which hurt companies in the long term. Thus, a dual-class structure is optimal in certain scenarios. We put forth alternatives to dual-class structure that enable managers to maintain control while retaining focus on sustainable value creation.     

The politics of natural disasters in protracted conflict: the 2014 flood in Kashmir

This paper explores the politics of the 2014 floods in the contentious and conflict-prone Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. The September 2014 floods were the most serious natural disaster in the state in the past 60 years, and affected some two million people in the Kashmir valley. Drawing on qualitative interview evidence from 50 flood victims in south, central and north Kashmir, the paper examines the extent to which the disaster transformed existing political narratives. In doing so, it examines the role of the state and central governments, the army, local volunteers, and the media. The paper engages with the politics of disaster literature, exploring how disasters can serve as a lens rather than as a catalyst, and stressing the relevance of understanding the social construction of disaster narratives.     

Determinants and impacts of subcontracting: evidence from India’s unorganized manufacturing sector

There are two divergent perspectives on the impact of subcontracting on firms in the informal sector. According to the benign view, formal sector firms prefer linkages with relatively modern firms in the informal sector, and subcontracting enables capital accumulation and technological improvement in the latter. According to the exploitation view, formal sector firms extract surplus from stagnant, asset-poor informal sector firms that use cheap family labour in home-based production. However, direct, firm-level evidence on the determinants and impact of subcontracting is thus far lacking in the literature. We apply a modified Heckman selection model to Indian National Sample Survey data on informal manufacturing enterprises (2005–2006). We find that home-based, relatively asset-poor, and female-owned firms are more likely to be in a subcontracting relationship. Further, we perform selectivity-corrected Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition and calculate treatment effects to show that subcontracting benefits smaller firms, firms in industrially backward states and rural firms; it is harmful for larger firms, firms in industrially advanced states, and urban firms. Our results suggest that the effects of subcontracting are more complex than those predicted by the divergent perspectives. Policy-makers need to engage with this complexity.     

Detection of Management Fraud: A Neural Network Approach

The detection of management fraud is an important issue facing the auditing profession. A major contributor to this issue is the Loebbecke and Willingham (1988) conceptual model for the detection of management fraud. A cascaded Logit approach using the Loebbecke and Willingham model was developed in Bell et al. (1993). The present study offers an alternative approach using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). This paper develops a successful discriminator of management fraud using both the generalized adaptive neural network architectures (GANNA) and the Adaptive Logic Network (ALN) approaches to designing neural networks. The discriminant functions can distinguish between fraudulent and non-fraudulent companies with superior accuracy to the cascaded Logit results of Bell et al. (1993). Finally, the discriminant function provides a parsimonious set of questions useful for detecting management fraud.     

Efficiency and productivity in the Indian unorganized manufacturing sector: did reforms matter?

This paper analyzes total factor productivity growth of the unorganized manufacturing sector in India using several rounds of the large scale national sample survey state level data for 15 major Indian states for the period 1978–1979 to 2000–2001. Data envelopment analysis is used to compute Malmquist total factor productivity index and its components. The impact of economic reforms on efficiency and productivity is examined. Evidence suggests that total factor productivity registered a positive growth during the period in the country as a whole. Most states in the country witnessed higher total factor productivity growth in the post 1990s reforms period than in the pre-reforms period. Decomposition of the Malmquist productivity index shows that improvement in technical efficiency rather than technical progress had contributed to the observed acceleration in the growth rate. Econometric analysis of the determinants of total factor productivity growth demonstrates that ownership, literacy, farm growth and infrastructure availability significantly influence total factor productivity growth in the sector.

On Lindley-like mean correction in the improved estimation of linear regression models

The risks of estimators incorporating the correction to the sample mean in the spirit of Stein and Lindley are approximated in the case of small disturbances.     

Pledger modelling: Help the Aged case study

• The recruitment of pledgers (as a proxy for potential legators) to charitable organisations plays a vital role in their continued success, and as a percentage of all fundraising income generated it can represent substantial proportions. However, of all the ‘donation asks’ made of supporters, asking for a legacy is the most difficult. Therefore, it is important that the target audience should be as well researched and highly targeted as possible.
• Help the Aged had reached the stage where decisions need to be made about its future marketing in order to protect longer-term income. The findings of this legacy targeting project were to feed into communication programmes, direct marketing, and the overall legacy marketing strategy.
• The key objective was to identify the best prospects to mail a legacy ask to, across the supporter database, with the likelihood that they are going to pledge as a result.
• It was found that whilst tailored data analysis comes at a price, the average value of a legacy justifies the cost of using sophisticated targeting tools. However, because of the pledge-to-legacy time lapse, there will always be issues with measuring any long-term return on investment (ROI). Nonetheless, pledgers have to be taken on their word for the purpose of testing (and subsequent rollouts). Pledge data should be tested and the outcomes should inform legacy marketing. However, as mentioned above, pledgers necessarily need to be taken on their word and therefore, formulating models based on the type and/or value of pledges is not recommended.

Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Think exogenous to excel: alternative supply chain data to improve transparency and decisions

Efficient decisions along the supply chain have traditionally demanded sophisticated information sharing processes. Even with decades of research on theoretical and practical developments on integrating systems and stakeholders, in practice, we still seem to struggle to achieve full transparency and mitigate inefficiency challenges. We explore the emerging sentiment analysis technique to augment sales and operations planning with currently unavailable exogenous information. Even though sentiment analysis has gained traction, a comprehensive application in supply chains has not yet been attempted. Relevant topics are reviewed to allow an examination of the key relationships in a process framework, grounded in dual-process and bullwhip effect theory. Our proposed conceptual framework extends our conception of sentiment analysis integration to improve supply chain decisions and performance. The framework addresses managers interested in developing additional analytical capabilities and researchers to initiate further empirical research on the potential held by sentiment analysis in supply chain research.     

Trends in helmet use by motorcycle riders in the decades following the repeal of mandatory helmet laws

Several US states repealed universal motorcycle helmet laws in the 1990s and 2000s. The purpose of this study was to examine national trends in helmet use among adult trauma patients with motorcycle-related injuries. We hypothesized that motorcycle helmet use declined over time. We retrospectively analyzed the National Trauma Data Bank's National Sample Program for 2003–2010. We also obtained data on US motorcycle fatalities reported in the Fatality Analysis Reporting System and population data from the U.S. Census Bureau to calculate motorcycle-related fatality rates over time. A total of 255,914 patients met inclusion criteria, of whom 148,524 (58%) were helmeted. During the study period, helmet use increased from 56% in 2003 to 60% in 2010 (p < 0.001). However, motorcycle-related fatality rates also increased in states with and without universal helmet laws. Nationally, rates of helmet use have increased. However, fatalities due to motorcycle crashes have also increased during the same period.