Die Erwartungen der Wirtschaft für 2016

Last year saw only a moderate economic upturn, which will continue in 2016. Geopolitical risks and the loss of momentum in the emerging economies are obstacles that may hinder a positive trend in exports. However, the falling crude oil price and the low euro currency rate give hope for better prospects. On the domestic front, there is a strong focus on the digitisation of all sectors. Meanwhile, many problems result from the low level of investments and the high energy costs resulting from the energy transition. The insurance industry views the low-yield environment, which greatly intensified last year, as its main challenge in 2016.     

What determines the composition of banks’ loan portfolios? Evidence from transition countries

This paper explores how bank characteristics and the institutional environment influence the composition of banks’ loan portfolios. We use a new and unique data set based on the EBRD Banking Environment and Performance Survey (BEPS), which was conducted for 220 banks in 20 transition countries. We show that bank ownership, bank size, and legal creditor protection are important determinants of the composition of banks’ loan portfolios. In particular, we find that foreign banks play an active role in mortgage lending. Moreover, banks that perceive pledge and mortgage laws to be of high quality choose to focus more on mortgage lending.     

Have changing takeover defense rules and strategies entrenched management and damaged shareholders? The case of defeated takeover bids

Using the Delaware Supreme Court's Time-Warner decision of July 1989 as a focal point, we study defeated takeover bids before and after July 1989 to assess the direct effects of stronger takeover impediments on takeover defense tactics used to defeat bids and the resulting shareholder wealth outcomes and managerial turnover. We find that firms that defeated takeover bids after July 1989 shifted away from the use of active takeover defenses (repurchases, special dividends, greenmail, and leverage increases). Nevertheless, shareholders of firms that defeat a takeover experienced slightly better wealth outcomes in the 1990s than in the 1980s. We also find increased managerial turnover rates after defeating a takeover bid post Time-Warner, suggesting that managers that defeat hostile takeover bids did not become more entrenched due to greater takeover impediments relative to prior years.     

Antecedents of emotional attachment of social media users

Emotional attachment has been documented to be an effective basis for consumer loyalty behaviors in many contexts; however, not much has been offered for new service formats enabled by information technology. This study explores the emotional attachment of social media users in terms of personality traits of users and websites. Drawing on literature on brand personality and brand–self congruence, this research proposes that a match between user’s individual personality and the personality traits of the digital artifacts promotes affective connection to social media websites. The social media, to which the user becomes emotionally attached, therefore becomes part of one’s self-definition and representation in the digital world. Self-expressiveness is also investigated as a motivational driver that helps users form such an emotional bond. Individuals with higher motivation to express themselves are more likely to develop an emotional attachment to social networking sites, exhibit loyal behavior, and experience a stronger effect than self-website congruence on emotional attachment. Results of this research provide support to the proposed relationships. Theoretical and managerial implications are elaborated in the discussion.     

Die Erwartungen der Wirtschaft für 2018

The German economy experiences a boom period. The leading economic research institutes upgrade their economic balance for 2017 to a growth rate exceeding two per cent and their forecasts for 2018 are equally positive. This optimism is widespread despite the UK’s exit from the EU, the protectionist tendencies and the difficult coalition-building in Germany. Technological innovations look ahead: manufacturing industry and trade sector have to react to digital transformation — i.e. electro-mobility, autonomous driving, the use of artificial intelligence and the spread of online trading.     

The rise of economics in competition policy: A Canadian perspective

Competition policy in Canada and elsewhere has changed remarkably over the last 50 years—in large measure due to advances in economics. In this article, we trace the impact of developments in industrial organization on the three central areas of competition policy: cartels, single firm conduct and mergers. We focus on Canadian competition policy but draw comparisons with developments in the United States and Europe.     

Incorporating a tracking signal into a state space model

It is a common practice to complement a forecasting method such as simple exponential smoothing with a monitoring scheme to detect those situations where forecasts have failed to adapt to structural change. It will be suggested in this paper that the equations for simple exponential smoothing can be augmented by a common monitoring statistic to provide a method that automatically adapts to structural change without human intervention. The resulting method, which turns out to be a restricted form of damped trend corrected exponential smoothing, is compared with related methods on the annual data from the M3 competition. It is shown to be better than simple exponential smoothing and more consistent than traditional damped trend exponential smoothing.     

Supply function equilibria: Step functions and continuous representations

In most electricity markets generators must submit step-function offers to a uniform price auction. These markets are often modelled as simpler pure-strategy Supply Function Equilibria (SFE) with continuous supply functions. Critics argue that the discreteness and discontinuity of the required steps drastically change Nash equilibria, invalidating predictions of the SFE model. We prove that there are sufficient conditions, offered quantities can be continuously varied, offered prices are selected from a finite set, and the density of the additive demand shock is not too steep, where the resulting stepped SFE converges to the continuous SFE as the number of steps increases, reconciling the apparently very disparate approaches to modelling electricity markets.     

Marketing’s roles in innovation in business-to-business firms: Status, issues, and research agenda

A project funded by the Institute for the Study of Business Markets to develop an understanding of the current state of business-to-business marketing and a research agenda for the field identified a lack of understanding of how the marketing function can or should best contribute to firms’ innovation efforts as the top priority. A workshop of senior academics and research-oriented practitioners explored this topic further, identifying four specific themes: (1) improving customer needs understanding and customer involvement in developing new products, (2) innovating beyond the lab, (3) disseminating and implementing research findings in firms, and (4) marketing’s overall role in innovation. This article defines these themes, sketches the current status of knowledge about each theme, frames practitioners’ issues with them, and proposes research agendas for each theme to move the field forward. The goal is to encourage rigorously executed academic research that can also help firms innovate more successfully.