On the Performance of Naïve, Analyst and Composite Earnings Forecasts: Evidence from Hong Kong

In this paper, we compare the information content and performance of naïve, analyst and composite forecasts in Hong Kong. Empirical evidence shows that superior performance can be obtained by a composite measure combining both analyst and naïve forecasts. In addition, analyst forecasts become more conditionally efficient over the naïve model as the actual announcement approaches. The superiority and timing advantage of analyst forecasts suggest that more emphasis should be placed on the services of analysts for predicting future earnings figures, particularly when the announcement is approaching.     

Fed funds futures and the news

The objective of this paper is to determine whether the observed variation in the response of market interest rates over the 1990s to the news about employment is a result, at least in part, of changes in expectations for monetary policy. Fed funds futures rates, which embody predictions for the expected monthly average of the daily effective funds rate, are used to capture market participants' expectations for monetary policy in the face of employment surprises. It is found that unanticipated employment announcements have a positive and statistically significant impact on one- and three-month-ahead fed funds futures rates and the size of the impact declines over the 1990s, thereby coinciding with a noticeable decline in the frequency of adjustment in the fed funds target rate.     

Renminbi Derivatives： Recent Development and Issues

This study reviews the developments in the onshore and offshore renminbi derivatives markets. The onshore market has seen a rapid build‐up in the market infrastructure and price discovery mechanism in the past year, with empirical evidence suggesting that its pricing is increasingly determined by financial fundamentals, such as the covered interest rate parity. However, the growth of the market has been restrained by restrictions on the participant base, limited variations in the RMB/US$ exchange rate, market participants’lack of technical capacity and experience, and inadequate supporting financial market infrastructure. The non‐deliverable forward (NDF) market, concentrated in Hong Kong and Singapore, is more developed, but has the drawback that its pricing is not tied to financial fundamentals. The comparison between onshore and offshore markets suggests that two issues are of particular importance for future derivatives market development in China: the balance between regulation and development, and the relationship between onshore and offshore markets.     

Nonparametric estimation and testing of fixed effects panel data models

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating nonparametric panel data models with fixed effects. We introduce an iterative nonparametric kernel estimator. We also extend the estimation method to the case of a semiparametric partially linear fixed effects model. To determine whether a parametric, semiparametric or nonparametric model is appropriate, we propose test statistics to test between the three alternatives in practice. We further propose a test statistic for testing the null hypothesis of random effects against fixed effects in a nonparametric panel data regression model. Simulations are used to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators and the test statistics.     

Scholastic Effort: An Empirical Test of Student Choice Models

A measure of student effort based on time and the efficiency of its use was found to be significant in several learning models. The report discusses variations of a generalized learning model, different definitions of student input, and the use of pre-TUCE scores as a variable. The authors ask whether the pre-TUCE is more appropriate as a measure of economic knowledge or as a proxy for student aptitude. The findings and methodology should be of considerable interest to others doing research on student effort.     

Discussion

It has always been a cardinal teaching with the Latter-day Saints that a religion that has not the power to save people temporally and make them prosperous and happy here cannot be depended upon to save them spiritually and to exalt them in the life to come.     

The Development of Cross-Cultural (Mis)Understanding Through Volunteer Tourism

Volunteer tourism is an increasingly popular activity in which individuals combine travel with voluntary work. On the whole, existing literature has provided an optimistic view of volunteer tourism, suggesting that it represents a more reciprocal form of tourism and facilitates the development of cross-cultural understanding among participants. However, more recently, it has been argued that if volunteer tourism programmes (VTPs) are not carefully managed, they may lead to cross-cultural misunderstanding and the reinforcement of cultural stereotypes. Through conducting an Appreciative Inquiry into a number of volunteer programmes, this research sought to explore these ideas further and, in particular, identify the role that volunteer tourism sending organisations can play in order to ensure that cross-cultural understanding develops through volunteer tourism. The findings from this research suggest that the development of cross-cultural understanding should be perceived as a goal of volunteer tourism rather than a natural result of sending volunteers overseas. This paper argues that sending organisations can play an important role in facilitating the achievement of this goal through pro-active management prior, during, and after their VTPs.     

Advertorial: Creative Solution or Last Resort?

In what is becoming an increasingly cluttered competitive environment, advertisers are being forced to identify alternative approaches with which to communicate their messages. This article focuses on one possible approach, the advertorial, a term typically used to describe a print advertisement where the execution, and in particular the copy, is in the editorial style of the host publication. Drawing on a preliminary review of the literature and an exploratory research study, comprising a press review and a series of in-depth interviews with practitioners, the article considers the profile of the press advertorial and advertising feature within the present advertising environment and their potential as an effective communication tool.