The underpricing of initial public offerings: A theoretical and empirical reconsideration of the adverse selection hypothesis

In this paper we generalize Rock's theory regarding the underpricing of IPOs. In Rock's model, informed investors have a firm-specific informational advantage pertaining to a firm's cash flow. We derive the new results that the level of beta and the size of the market risk premium positively affect underpricing. These implications extend the adverse selection theory and further distinguish this theory from the current state of signalling theories of underpricing. The results put the “hot and cold” issue markets phenomenon in a theoretical context. Empirical results are consistent with the theoretical propositions and provide support for Rock's theory of underpricing.     

Competition and Participation in Religious Markets: Evidence from Victorian Scotland

In 1885, the largest churches in Scotland were engaged in a dispute about state funding. We use data generated in the course of that dispute to test two related hypotheses. First, as market size (proxied by population) increases, the competitiveness (or complexity) of the religious market structure will not decrease. Second, religious activity, as measured by giving per member, church income and participation, will not decrease as market competitiveness (or complexity) increases. Empirical evidence lends support to the first hypothesis, but casts doubt on the second, and the supply-side theories underpinning it, which posit a causal link between increased competitiveness (complexity) and higher levels of religious activity. In interpreting the results the importance of a rich understanding of institutional arrangements—particularly market structure, governance and financing—is underlined.     

The trade wind,the statesman and the system of commerce: Sir James Steuart's vision of political economy

In the conception of history of the abbé de Condillac, one thing is really original. He establishes a causal relation between the functioning of the human mind and the history of societies. First, the understanding of humankind is not disordered: society develops, stages follow one another. But the commercial stage leads societies to divide into classes, the landowners are interested only in frivolous, luxurious objects: they have become denatured. Their behaviour entails society in a long phase of decline. However, this course is not inevitable. Condillac wishes to reform the individual in order to modify society and he proposes economic safeguards capable of reducing disparities. Life is simple, but history is not halted.     

Options in income support for the aged: A critique of the two-tier approach

Support for the two-tier approach to income maintenance for the aged is becoming widespread. Two-tier formulas combine an income-conditioned bottom tier with an earnings-related top tier to achieve antipoverty and earnings replacement objectives. This paper first refutes the claim that the two-tier approach is generally more target-efficient in reaching the poor than is the earnings-related top tier with progressive replacement rates. Next, the paper compares the effectiveness of the two systems in terms of other goals. The paper concludes by showing that a top tier with a low tax on current income can virtually dominate a wide range of two-tier formulas.     

WILL BUSINESS CYCLES IN THE EURO AREA CONVERGE? A CRITICAL SURVEY OF EMPIRICAL RESEARCH

Abstract.  This survey of business cycle synchronization in the European monetary union focuses on two issues: have business cycles become more similar, and which factors drive business cycle synchronization. We conclude that business cycles in the euro area have gone through periods of both convergence and divergence. Still, there is quite some evidence that during the 1990s business cycle synchronization in the euro area has increased. Higher trade intensity is found to lead to more synchronization, but the point estimates vary widely. The evidence for other factors affecting business cycle synchronization is very mixed.     

A Value at Risk Approach to Background Risk

This paper studies the effects of an uninsurable background risk (BR) on the demand for insurance (proportional and with deductible). We study both the case of BR uncorrelated with the insurable one and the perfectly correlated one, in a Gaussian world. In order to perform our study, we exploit the new risk measure known as Value at Risk (VaR) and consider insurance contracts which are Mean-VaR efficient. We obtain results which depend on the parameters (moments) of both risks and on the magnitude of loadings charged by the insurance company, instead of depending on the risk attitudes of the insured, such as risk aversion and prudence.We demonstrate that, if loadings are not too high, the demand for insurance increases with positively correlated BR; it decreases with BR negatively correlated if the latter is less risky than the insurable one (in this case it can even go to zero, if loadings are too high); it goes to zero with BR which is negatively correlated and more risky than the insurable one.     

EXCHANGE RATE FUNDAMENTALS,FORECASTING, AND SPECULATION: BAYESIAN MODELS IN BLACK MARKETS

Although speculative activity is central to black markets for currency, the out‐of‐sample performance of structural models in those settings is unknown. We substantially update the literature on empirical determinants of black market rates and evaluate the out‐of‐sample performance of linear models and non‐parametric Bayesian treed Gaussian process (BTGP) models against the random walk benchmark. Fundamentals‐based models outperform the benchmark in out‐of‐sample prediction accuracy and trading rule profitability measures given future values of fundamentals. In simulated real‐time trading exercises, however, the BTGP achieves superior realized profitability, accuracy and market timing, while linear models do no better than a random walk. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Testing hypotheses of ghetto morphology

Socioeconomic urban policy has generally treated the American black ghetto as a single community or neighborhood. A study of recent literature suggests that the socioeconomic structure of ghetto space may be developing a spatially systematic heterogeneity. The literature has suggested several hypotheses concerning the socioeconomic morphology of ghetto space, but heretofore these hypotheses have not been tested in any rigorous fashion. This is the objective of this study. The results of these tests suggest that the ghetto is indeed developing as a socioeconomically heterogeneous subsystem spatially parallel to the overall urban system. This implies that a multiplicity of communities or neighborhoods are developing over time. In order to be effective, the processes of urban planning and policy development must address this evolving pattern.     

扁平证券市场线和融资限制——中国股票市场的实证检验

资本资产定价模型（CAPM)在国际金融市场的实证检验结果往往呈现扁平证券市场线现象。一些学者认为融资限制是该现象的产生原因。本文旨在研究扁平证券市场线现象是否存在于中国股市,同时分析融资限制对中国股市证券市场线的影响。本文采用投资组合分析法对A股主板市场进行实证检验。本文研究发现：（1)扁平的证券市场线现象同样存在于中国股票市场中;（2)在中国股票市场中,融资限制与证券市场线的斜率呈负相关,与截距呈正相关,这符合融资限制理论;（3)以上两点发现同样存在于多因子定价模型中,这表明本文研究结果具有稳健性。       

Going Multinational: What are the Effects on Home‐Market Performance?

Abstract. This paper compares the home‐market performance of German multinational enterprises (MNEs) and national firms, both before and after switching from national to multinational activities. Regarding the former case, our results show that future multinationals outperform domestic firms. When assessing the ex post performance of multinationals, selectivity issues must be taken into account. Applying an endogenous treatment model, it turns out that after switching, both productivity and wage growth are higher at newly founded MNEs. While capital intensities increase compared with those of national firms, employment growth rates are negatively related to switching, suggesting that home and foreign employment are substitutes.