Managing TFT-LCDs under uncertainty: When crystal cycles meet business cycles

Understanding the correlation between the crystal cycle and the business cycle is important, because it can help managers to anticipate change, reduce environmental uncertainty, and formulate operational objectives. To this end, we focused on China and the U.S. in our analysis. We found that the economic indicators that were the most relevant in the characterization of China's huge and burgeoning TFT-LCD market are gross domestic production and industrial production. We complemented this finding by conducting similar analyses in the U.S. market using a more comprehensive list of economic indicators.     

On the existence of rational expectations equilibrium

We prove a theorem on the existence of rational expectations general economic equilibrium when agents condition on prices as well as on private information, and maximize the expectation of a state-dependent utility function. The key to the result is a new idealization of what it means for a set of empirical distributions to support agents' expectations. This idealization depends on the notion that agents compare their expectations with continuous versions of the random empirical distributions that are generated by the workings of the economy. The existence theorem covers all strictly concave utility functions, arbitrary distributions of the state variable, and situations in which the dimension of the state variable is large relative to the number of commodities.     

Factors Affecting the Content of High School Economics

Several years ago there was great interest in the high school economics course. Studies were being made of the effectiveness of high school economics, of the relationship between the student's high school economics background and his or her performance in the college principles course, and of the economic knowledge of precollege teachers. Strom's article may bring about a revival of interest in secondary school economic instruction. He has considered variables not previously taken into account, he has addressed the problem of defining the high school course, and—perhaps most important—he has suggested that the two-step factor analysis/regression procedure may be superior to the standard regression analysis in economic education research.     

Do people really want to be nudged towards healthy lifestyles?

This paper assesses Thaler and Sunstein’s claim that policies that nudge individuals towards healthy lifestyles promote the welfare of those individuals, as judged by themselves. I argue that Thaler and Sunstein switch between two different interpretations of that clause. One interpretation gives the clause a wide range of applicability, but drains it of its content as a repudiation of paternalism. The other interpretation makes it more meaningful to say that people want to make the choices they are being nudged towards, but applies to a much narrower range of cases than Thaler and Sunstein have in mind.     

Going Multinational: What are the Effects on Home‐Market Performance?

Abstract. This paper compares the home‐market performance of German multinational enterprises (MNEs) and national firms, both before and after switching from national to multinational activities. Regarding the former case, our results show that future multinationals outperform domestic firms. When assessing the ex post performance of multinationals, selectivity issues must be taken into account. Applying an endogenous treatment model, it turns out that after switching, both productivity and wage growth are higher at newly founded MNEs. While capital intensities increase compared with those of national firms, employment growth rates are negatively related to switching, suggesting that home and foreign employment are substitutes.     

The generation of stock market cycles

This paper demonstrates that the relation between stock market and business cycle dynamics can be conceptualized using a dividend discount model. The interaction of changes in earnings and interest rates throughout the economic cycle are shown to cause changes in the level of stock prices. This implies that monitoring and forecasting these factors can help explain and possibly predict stock price behavior over time.     

Societal preferences for fertility treatment in Australia: a stated preference discrete choice experiment

Objective: To investigate preferences for fertility treatment from the Australian general population with the aims of calculating the willingness to pay in tax contribution for attributes (characteristics) that make up treatment and for an “ideal” fertility treatment program. We also assessed whether willingness-to-pay varies by the relationship status or sexual orientation of the patient.

Methods: A stated preference discrete choice experiment was administered to a panel of 801 individuals representative of the Australian general population. Seven attributes of fertility treatment under three broad categories were included: outcome, process, and cost. Attributes were identified through published literature, focus group discussions, expert knowledge, and a pilot study. A Bayesian fractional experimental design was used, and data analysis was performed using a generalized multinomial logit model. Further analyses included interaction terms and latent class modeling.

Results: Six of the seven attributes influenced the choice of a treatment program. Under process attributes, individuals preferred: continuity of care of clinic staff, where patients are seen by the same doctor but different nurses at each visit; “alternative” treatments being offered to all patients; and onsite clinic counseling and peer-support groups. Personalization and tailoring of the treatment journey were not important. Among outcome attributes, the improved success rate of having a baby per cycle and significant side-effects were considered important. Cost of treatment also influenced the choice of treatment program. Individual preferences for fertility treatment were not associated with patients’ relationship status or sexual orientation. Latent class modeling revealed sub-groups with distinct fertility treatment preferences.

Conclusion: This study provides important insights into the attributes that influence the preferences of fertility treatment in Australia. It also estimates socially-inclusive willingness-to-pay values in tax contributions for an “ideal” package of treatment. The results can inform economic evaluations of fertility treatment programs.