THE INFORMATIONAL CONTENT OF FORWARD RATES: FURTHER EVIDENCE

Using single-equation estimation techniques, researchers have generally found that forward rates have little ability to predict future spot rates. In this paper, Generalized Least Squares is used to estimate simultaneously the forecastive ability of multiple forward rates. It is discovered that current forward rates significantly predict future spot rates for various rate maturities up to twelve months ahead. Also found are instances in which the Treasury bill market does not conform to the weak form of market efficiency.     

When do they leave? The dynamics of living in low-income neighbourhoods

We use longitudinal tax data to explore several undocumented aspects of residential spells in low-income neighbourhoods. Although new spells generally last much longer than spells in the low-income state, both types of spells exhibit negative duration dependence. While factors such as family type, age, and local unemployment rates play a considerable role in the length of both types of spells, the magnitude of these roles is quite different. These differences suggest that in contrast to the low-income state, the dynamics of low-income neighbourhood spells are largely shaped by non-economic factors.     

The Social Welfare Loss from Egg and Poultry Marketing Boards, Revisited

Continuing conflict over supply management warrants another look at its costs. The authors' model combines the traditional welfare triangle with the social welfare loss created when farmers bear the investment risk associated with possible termination of quota protection. The annual net social welfare loss from egg and poultry marketing boards likely exceeds $100 million, with consumers losing more than $500 million. Half the net social welfare loss is the cost of risk bearing. Quota prices imply that farmers expect quota lives to be relatively short. Therefore, changing to short fixed terms might halve the social welfare loss without imposing capital losses on farmers and might facilitate a return to a free market or auctioning new fixed term quotas.     

STRUCTURAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE COMPANY–CUSTOMER INTERFACE

The main approach current in organization theory adopts a ‘structural contingency’ model in attempting to explain and predict company structures. However, this model, as currently described in the literature, is so broadly defined that it tells us little about how market conditions and the ways in which companies deal with their customers might affect internal company structures. The present paper considers the issues involved and presents some results from a study focused on these relationships.     

Judging quality by price,snob appeal,and the new consumer theory

Conclusion The analysis contained in this paper has served two purposes. First, it has demonstrated the richness of the new consumer theory by showing how this new approach can incorporate the questions of judging quality by price and price-snob appeal. And second, the paper has derived analytically the conditions under which these phenomena will yield a positively sloping demand curve in a two-commodity, two-attribute world.In traditional theory the consumer's response to a change in the price of a good is conceptually divided into an income effect and a substitution effect. The new approach to consumer theory partitions the consumer's response differently, namely, into an efficiency substitution and a utility substitution. When a general price attribute is introduced each of these divisions retains its individual validity. The conclusion that the efficiency substitution is always non-positive also remains valid. But, the traditional substitution effect may now be positive and of sufficient magnitude to make theentire response to an own-price changepositive,x _i /p _i >0. We have shown analytically, then, as the verbal discussions of traditional consumer theory lead us to believe, that judgment of quality by price and price-snob appeal can result in positively sloped demand curves.The research described in this paper was supported in part by the Econometric Research Program at Princeton University. The authors would like to thank Professors W. J. Baumol, O. Morgenstern, and R. E. Quandt, Messrs. F. D. Gately and R. J. Sweeney, and other members of the Seminar on Research in Progress, Department of Economics, Princeton University, for their helpful comments and suggestions. Of course, any errors that may remain are solely our responsibility.     

Statistics on food and agriculture in China

During a recent visit to the People's Republic of China, the author was able to observe the way in which information about food production is collected and used. This article describes the statistical system operating in the Chinese countryside and compares it with methods of collecting agricultural statistics used in some countries in Africa.     

Barriers to Innovation: Intraorganizational Dislocations

In this editorial PERSPECTIVE, Roger More asks that researchers and managers address explicitly some of the barriers to innovation that we build into the innovation process by the way we organize and manage new product development. He calls these barriers "dislocations" and suggests that they need to be recognized explicitly and addressed by a fundamental restructuring of our human systems.