Genetics,Alzheimer’s Disease,and Long-Term Care Insurance

Abstract

This paper applies a model of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) developed by Macdonald and Pritchard (2000) to the question of the potential for adverse selection in long-term care (LTC) insurance introduced by the existence of DNA tests for variants of the ApoE gene, the ε4 allele of which is known to predispose one to earlier onset of AD. It computes the expected present values (EPVs) of model LTC benefits with respect to AD for each of five ApoE genotypes, weighted average EPVs with and without adverse selection, and sample underwriting ratings. The paper concludes that adverse selection could increase costs significantly in a small LTC insurance market only if current population genetic risk is not much smaller than that observed in case-based studies, and if carriers of the ε4 allele are very much more likely to buy LTC insurance. Finally, the paper considers the cost of a combined retirement package, providing both pension and LTC insurance, and shows that it can reduce adverse selection.     

利比亚危机下中国承包商的应对策略——不可抗力影响下的暂停、终止、索赔与没收保函风险防范

2011年2月,席卷阿拉伯世界的动乱在利比亚数个城市爆发,并迅速演变为政府和反政府力量之间的武装冲突。中国在利比亚至少有27个项目遭到袭击和抢劫。为此,中国政府在利比亚迅速而高效地组织了撤侨行动     

Estimating an origin–destination table for US imports of waterborne containerized freight

Containerized freight imports into the US are growing at an average of 10% per year. This traffic is concentrated at a small number of US seaports. It is therefore important to have an accurate understanding of the flow of containers from their origin country through these seaports to their final destination. This paper develops an optimization model to estimate route flows and a corresponding multi-modal origin–destination table for containers by synthesizing data on international trade and railcar movements with a gravity model for the demand of container traffic. This analysis provides insights into the balance of rail and truck inland transportation from each port.     

Expectations of Working Relationships in International Buyer–Seller Relationships: Development of a Relationship Continuum Scale

This study is an attempt to develop a scale to measure expectations of buyer–seller working relationships on a cross-cultural basis in the hospitality industry. The focus is on North American and Asian hotel salespeople. The scale development drew from previous research in guanxi relationships, purchasing, and selling strategies. While the results did not support a reliable unidimensional scale that could distinguish between transactional and collaborative working relationships, the methodology did create a framework for further scale development.     

Watching the FIFA World Cup 2010 in England: the sojourner perspective

Recent years have seen an emergence of a varied academic literature focused on the football fan, with a wealth of studies exploring issues such as hooliganism, fan behaviour and fan identification. No research, however, has documented the experiences and perspectives of the international sojourner, who follows the televised tournament far away from the home country. This paper offers a contribution to the literature on fandom by focusing on the experiences of becoming a temporary fan among a sample of nine international students in England during the period of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. It shows the importance of the tournament for students away from their home nation, acting as a point of celebration and as a means of bringing sojourners of the same nationality together to support their team. It reveals how the tournament offered escape from stress, became a focal point for social interaction, provided the opportunity for recreation of home, and for the reinforcement of feelings of national identity.     

The Development of Satellite Television in Western Europe

Within Western Europe there is growing interest in satellite television and some commentators suggest that its successful development could revolutionise television transmission and bring a new dimension to home entertainment during the next decade. This article describes the different ways in which satellite television services are being developed in Western Europe in general and in the United Kingdom in particular. Some of the problems surrounding these developments are also discussed.     

Health effects on labour market exits and entries

This paper analyses the role of health on exits out of and entries into employment using data from the first twelve waves of the British Household Panel Survey (1991–2002). We use discrete-time duration models to estimate the effect of health on the hazard of becoming non-employed and on the hazard of becoming employed. The results show that general health, measured by a variable that captures health limitations and by a constructed latent health index, affects entries into and exits out of employment; the effects being higher for men than for women. The results are robust to different definitions of employment, and to the exclusion of older workers from the analysis.     

A Model for Analyzing the Impact of Selective Lapsation on Mortality

Abstract

This paper presents a model for examining the effect of various relationships between mortality rates and lapse rates on the mortality experience of a cohort of insured lives. The approach is individual rather than the aggregate traditionally used in analyzing selective lapsation. The model assumes that insured lives are healthy at policy issue, but later may move to an impaired state from which the lapse rate is zero. Associated with each insured is an unobservable “risk level” random variable, which reflects the heterogeneity of the insured group. Individual mortality and lapse rates are functions of the risk level. A numerical illustration provides some interesting results obtained by using this model.