Identifying crime generators and spatially overlapping high-risk areas through a nonlinear model: A comparison between three cities of the Valencian region (Spain)

The behavior and spatial distribution of crime events can be explained through the characterization of an area in terms of its demography, socioeconomy, and built environment. In particular, recent studies on the incidence of crime in a city have focused on the identification of features of the built environment (specific places or facilities) that may increase crime risk within a certain radius. However, it is hard to identify environmental characteristics that consistently explain crime occurrence across cities and crime types. This article focuses on the assessment of the effect that certain types of places have on the incidence of property crime, robbery, and vandalism in three cities of the Valencian region (Spain): Alicante, Castellon, and Valencia. A nonlinear effects model is used to identify such places and to construct a risk map over the three cities considering the three crime types under research. The results obtained suggest that there are remarkable differences across cities and crime types in terms of the types of places associated with crime outcomes. The identification of high-risk areas allows verifying that crime is highly concentrated, and also that there is a high level of spatial overlap between the high-risk areas corresponding to different crime types.     

HEALTH INSURANCE,FERTILITY, AND THE WANTEDNESS OF PREGNANCIES: EVIDENCE FROM MASSACHUSETTS

Health insurance reform in Massachusetts lowered the cost of both pregnancy (by increased coverage of pregnancy‐related medical events) and pregnancy prevention (by increasing access to reliable contraception). We empirically examine fertility responses and find no overall effect from increased coverage due to the Massachusetts reform. This finding, however, masks substantial heterogeneity. For married women aged 20 to 34—with high latent fertility and pregnancy wantedness—fertility increased by approximately 1%. For unmarried women in the same age range—for whom pregnancies are typically unwanted—fertility declined by 8%. (JEL I13, I18, J13)     

Hong Kong Output Dynamics: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract. Advanced statistical techniques are used to analyze Hong Kong output dynamics. Hong Kong, Japan and the US are found to share some common long‐term and short‐term cyclical variations. While the Hong Kong economy is susceptible to external shocks and Granger‐caused by the other two economies, local factors account for a large proportion of output growth variability and uncertainty. On the transmission mechanism, the selected trade and financial variables have incremental explanatory power but do not lessen the ability of lagged output variables to explain Hong Kong growth dynamics. Interestingly, the US does not appear to exert undue influences on Hong Kong.     

Methods for Environmental and Economic Accounting for the Exploitation of Wild Fish Stocks and their Applications to the Case of Icelandic Fisheries

The paper discusses methods for estimating the value of commercially exploited fish stocks and the cost of exploiting them. Methods which are recommended in the System of National Accounting (SNA) satellite system and the System for Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA) and relevant for this task are discussed. The paper questions the relevance of some of these methods. It argues for the integration of economic accounting for wild fish stocks with estimation of efficient management of them. Using biological and economic data makes it possible to produce consistent estimates of the value of fish stocks and the cost of exploiting them. These estimates are useful for national accounting and for guiding management of fisheries. This method allows estimation of the cost of inefficiency of fisheries management besides estimation of the cost of depletion. The different methods are illustrated using data on commercial fisheries in Iceland and the fish stocks that they exploit. It is shown that even if all methods are based on market valuation and use only objective data they lead to very different outcomes.     

Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates: some evidence from non-linear cointegration

The asymmetric and persistent adjustment of the European real exchange rates is investigated using the framework of non-linear cointegration. The episodes of slow mean-reversion dynamics over the period from 1979 to 1999 are explained. A test of unit root against STAR cointegration is proposed and some complete estimations and stochastic simulations of ESTAR models are presented. The presence of effective non-linear adjustment during the moving of the currencies to their long-run fundamental equilibrium exchange rate value is discussed.     

On the test score gap between Roma and non‐Roma students in Hungary and its potential causes

Using unique data from Hungary, the gap in reading and mathematics test scores between Roma and non‐Roma 8th grade students is assessed and a substantial gap between them revealed. Standardized test scores as well as the fraction of students with competences considered inadequate are examined. Regardless of measurement and subject area, the bulk of the gap is explained by social differences in income, wealth and parental education. Using reduced‐form regressions, two major mediating mechanisms are identified: first, on average the home environment of Roma children is less favourable for cognitive development; second, the educational environment of the average Roma student is different from the average non‐Roma student. Comparing students with similar home environments from the same school and class, the ethnic gap in test scores is found to be insignificant. Ethnic differences in the home environment are explained by social disparity, and ethnicity seems to play no additional role in that regard. The unequal distribution of Roma students in schools and classes is found to be explained predominantly by social difference, too, with a significant residual portion, indicating the effect of ethnic segregation.     

Does knowledge explain trust behaviors and outcomes? The different influences of initial knowledge and experiential knowledge on personal trust interactions

This paper examines the influences of initial knowledge and experiential knowledge on trust behaviors and trust outcomes, respectively, at an interpersonal level. We use an experimental dynamic trust game, and our results show that (1) the initial knowledge that exists a priori between a trustor and a trustee helps to explain the trustor's trust behaviors toward the trustee, and (2) the experiential knowledge gained directly by a trustor during a specific trust interaction with a trustee influences the trust outcome, i.e. the difference between the original expectations of the trustor and the subsequent trust behaviors. Our results contribute to human resource literature by clarifying the specific influences of different types of knowledge on interpersonal trust relationships (e.g. between managers and employees) and by supplementing the traditional notion that trust within a firm develops slowly by showing that personal expectations have an immediate and important influence on trust output.     

How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?

This paper develops a theory of optimal fertility behavior under mortality shocks. In an OLG model, young adults determine their optimal fertility, labor supply and life-cycle consumption with both exogenous child and adult mortality risks. We show that a rise in adult mortality exerts an ambiguous effect on both net and total fertility in a general equilibrium framework, while child mortality shocks unambiguously lead to a rise in total fertility, leaving net fertility unchanged. We complement our theory with an empirical analysis using a sample of 39 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the 1980–2004 period, examining the overall effects of the child and adult mortality channels on both total and net fertility. We find child mortality to exert a robust, positive impact on total fertility but no impact on net fertility, whereas a rise in adult mortality is found to negatively influence both total and net fertility. Given the particular demographic profile of the HIV/AIDS epidemic (killing essentially young, active adults), we then conclude in favor of an unambiguous negative effect of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on net fertility in SSA.     

Asymptotic inference for a one-dimensional simultaneous autoregressive model

A nonstationary simultaneous autoregressive model \({X^{(n)}_k=\alpha \Big(X^{(n)}_{k-1}+X^{(n)}_{k+1}\Big)+\varepsilon_k, k=1, 2, \ldots , n-1}\), is investigated, where \({X^{(n)}_0}\) and \({X^{(n)}_n}\) are given random variables. It is shown that in the unstable case α = 1/2 the least squares estimator of the autoregressive parameter converges to a functional of a standard Wiener process with a rate of convergence n ², while in the stable situation |α| < 1/2 the estimator is biased but asymptotically normal with a rate n ^1/2.