Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon using a stacked autoencoder and ensemble regression model

The study of climatic variables that govern the Indian summer monsoon has been widely explored. In this work, we use a non-linear deep learning-based feature reduction scheme for the discovery of skilful predictors for monsoon rainfall with climatic variables from various regions of the globe. We use a stacked autoencoder network along with two advanced machine learning techniques to forecast the Indian summer monsoon. We show that the predictors such as the sea surface temperature and zonal wind can predict the Indian summer monsoon one month ahead, whereas the sea level pressure can predict ten months before the season. Further, we also show that the predictors derived from a combination of climatic variables can outperform the predictors derived from an individual variable. The stacked autoencoder model with combined predictors of sea surface temperature and sea level pressure can predict the monsoon (June-September) two months ahead with a 2.8% error. The accuracy of the identified predictors is found to be superior to the state-of-the-art predictions of the Indian monsoon.     

Killing off cohorts: Forecasting mortality of non-extinct cohorts with the penalized composite link model

Mortality forecasting has crucial implications for insurance and pension policies. A large amount of literature has proposed models to forecast mortality using cross-sectional (period) data instead of longitudinal (cohort) data. As a consequence, decisions are generally based on period life tables and summary measures such as period life expectancy, which reflect hypothetical mortality rather than the mortality actually experienced by a cohort. This study introduces a novel method to forecast cohort mortality and the cohort life expectancy of non-extinct cohorts. The intent is to complete the mortality profile of cohorts born up to 1960. The proposed method is based on the penalized composite link model for ungrouping data. The performance of the method is investigated using cohort mortality data retrieved from the Human Mortality Database for England & Wales, Sweden, and Switzerland for male and female populations.     

External bargaining versus internal manipulation: A theory of managerial delegation

Does the competition mode influence the delegation decisions of the firm owners? By constructing a vertical negotiation game model, we find that under Cournot competition in the downstream market, the downstream firm's owner will not choose delegation, whereas under Bertrand competition, the downstream firm's owner will choose delegation. If the product substitution is relatively large, the adoption of delegation management by the owners of downstream firms under Bertrand competition will bring higher profits. It further shows that compared with the situation of no delegation, delegation management may reverse the social welfare ranking under Bertrand and Cournot competitions.     

De produktiestructuur van Nederland in de periode 1950-1966

Summary In 1961 Arrow, Chenery, Minhas and Solow presented their C.E.S. production function, which was based on the relation between the real wage rate and the average labour productivity. They argued that, if the aggregate production function is continuous, lineair and homogeneous, then, with perfect competition and profit maximalization prevailing, the relation between the real wage rate and the average labour productivity is reflection of the production structure. This relation can, therefore, be used for specifying the production structure.In the present paper, the same line of thought is applied to the Dutch economy. Several hypotheses on the relation between wage rate and average labour productivity are tested. Statistically, it turns out that in the Dutch economy the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour is not a constant: it declines with increasing capital-labour ratio. Two statistically acceptable production equations that have this feature are presented.The efficiency parameter appearing as an integration constant in both production equations shows a decline: with labour productivity constant, the capital-labour ratio is falling over time. This means that the relation between labour productivity and capital-labour ratio shifts over time. Another outcome of this study is that technical progress is capitalaugmenting and that it brings about 50 percent of the growth in the labour productivity.De schrijvers zijn dank verschuldigd aan Prof. Dr. F. J. de Jong voor zijn stimulerende kritiek en aan de heren J. G. Althuis, F. J. van Bolhuis, J. D. Flikweert, H. Jager en B. S. Wilpstra, assistenten bij de afdeling Algemene Economie van de Economische Faculteit der Rijksuniversiteit te Groningen, voor hun bereidwillige medewerking aan dit onderzoek.     

Gedragsmodellen van de Economische Groei

Summary Two behavioural models of economic growth are developed: a neo-classical and a neo-keynesian (Kaldorian) one.In the neo-classical model consumers aspire to a certain level of consumption. Savings and supply of labour (man-hours) are the means for reaching this level.In the neo-keynesian model firms and households have a certain aspiration level with respect to profits and consumption, respectively. To reach these levels firms decide to invest and households to supply man-hours.In both models growth is entirely dependent on the parameters of the behaviour equations. In this respect they differ from the traditional neo-classical and neo-keynesian (Kaldorian) models, in which growth is eventually determined by autonomous technical progress and growth of the labour force.     

The case of the downsizing decision

New CEO Charles Rampart's decision to make deep across-the-board cuts at Universal Products Company, Ltd. presents division manager Andrew Jordan with a thorny problem. Plagued by slow growth, a declining stock price, and an increasingly skeptical investment community, UPC needs to control costs and control them fast. But Jordan's division is the most profitable in the company, and the 11% cut proposed by Rampart could destroy already shaky morale and seriously threaten the division's ability to compete. "There comes a time in every manager's career when he has to fight a bad decision made by his boss," argues Sam Godwyn, Jordan's vice president for marketing and sales. "To cut across the board is to take a blunt axe to the company when a surgeon's scalpel is called for." He suggests it is better to line up support for an alternative plan that links cuts to a long-term strategy and that differentiates between successful and unsuccessful divisions. "It would be a terrible mistake for us to focus only on the narrow needs of the division when the future of the whole company is at stake," counters Mary Wyatt, Jordan's vice president for finance. Yes, the downsizing will hurt the division in the short term, but the real issue is getting behind the new CEO. Supporting the downsizing decision is a necessary investment in this future credibility and effectiveness--whatever the short-term costs. Four commentators debate Jordan's dilemma and how he should resolve it.     

Services under siege--the restructuring imperative

Recent job losses in the U.S. service sector do not reflect a temporary recession. Those jobs are gone, the result of a massive restructuring of the sector that is just getting under way. The explanation for the restructuring is quite simple. Until recently, services have been shielded by regulation and confronted by few foreign competitors. They have allowed their white-collar payrolls to become bloated, their investment in information technology to outstrip the paybacks, and their productivity to stagnate. Now competition is heating up and exposing these inefficiencies. Just as intense competition forced the restructuring of Smokestack America in the 1980s, deregulation and foreign direct investment are shaking out service companies that cannot confront their shortcomings. The need for sweeping change in the service sector may come as a great shock to Americans who saw services as the means to continued economic prosperity. But there is a painful irony at work: job creation, the very thing proponents use to demonstrate the U.S. service sector's strength, is in fact a symptom of the sector's chronic neglect of economic efficiency. It is precisely that neglect that makes the service sector vulnerable as the race for market share intensifies and new players shift the terms of competition. Services must respond to the new competitive environment, but not by indiscriminate cost cutting. Instead, they should balance financial discipline with a comprehensive and immediate reexamination of strategy.     

Electronic data interchange: a strategic approach

The potential of EDI is virtually unlimited, but the success of any EDI initiative hinges on its ability to directly support strategies that achieve your institution's business objectives. At its most fundamental level, EDI technology automates current business practices, speeding up the exchange of business information. This application of EDI most often is found in a hospital's material management department. But EDI integrated internally within a hospital and externally with suppliers and vendors has the potential to go beyond simple automation and to transform processes. This is where the full value of EDI can be realized. No matter which level of EDI participation hospital management decides is appropriate to fulfill its business objectives and strategies, EDI will affect the entire institution's exchange of information with its internal and external audiences. The question management must answer is: Will the hospital's EDI strategy be offensive and managed, or defensive and reactive? Today's environment leaves no room for a "no-strategy" EDI option. The options are either to proactively shape EDI, or reactively play catch-up. EDI can work for you. Adequately developing an EDI game plan in support of your business objectives and calling on your suppliers and other trading partners to work with you will ensure EDI is an asset to your facility.