The Distributional Impact of Selected Commonwealth Outlays and Taxes and Alternative Commonwealth Grant Allocation Mechanisms

This article examines the redistributive impact of Commonwealth outlays and taxes (including outlays directed through and to the States)and two possible alternative systems of distributing Commonwealth funding amongst the States.     

The Usefulness of Direct and Indirect Cash Flow Disclosures

We investigate the ability of disclosed operating cash flow and indirect accruals components to explain annual returns for a sample of Australian firms. Consistent with claims made by accounting standard setters, we find evidence of significant explanatory power for disclosed operating cash flow components beyond aggregate operating cash flows when they also have significant incremental predictive power for future (one year ahead) operating cash flows. Accrual components also have incremental explanatory power for returns. In addition, we find evidence of significant explanatory power for operating cash flow components beyond estimates of the components (based on other financial statement disclosures) for firms with large differences between disclosed and estimated components.     

The effectiveness of interest-rate futures contracts for hedging Japanese bonds of different credit quality and duration

This study investigates the effectiveness of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE)-traded Japanese 10-year JGB futures contract to hedge portfolios of Japanese bonds of differing maturity and credit quality. The bond portfolios examined are Government, AAA-, and AA-rated Eurobonds with maturities of 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, and 20 years. Consistent with the recent literature, the study employs univariate methods for calculating hedge ratios based on levels, first differences, and percentage change of each series. Out-of-sample forecasting is used to determine the effectiveness of the calculated hedge ratios for each of the bond portfolios and to determine which approach to calculating hedge ratios is the most effective. The results show that this particular futures contract does provide a good hedge, particularly for those bond terms closest to the 10-year term of the contract. There is some evidence, although not strong, that JGBs are better hedged than AAA and AA bonds. Investors should take some caution when using this futures contract to hedge bond portfolios of different maturities and credit ratings.     

Informed and uninformed trading on the Australian dollar

Using a high-frequency data set of the spot Australian/US dollar, this study examines the distribution of quotes, spreads, and returns across the trading day. By identifying the direction of trade and the subsequent quote returns from contributing banks, the segmented nature of the market into market-makers and informed and uninformed traders is investigated. The results suggest that the economic gain possible from private information is maximised over 2 to 5 quotes and is rapidly eroded by 20 quotes (about 2 min later during busy trading times) as other new information enters the market. Also, the analysis is revealing of discontinuities in trading and the volatility of pricing across the trading day.     

Domestic Violence and Child Mortality in the Developing World

We examine the effect of domestic violence on child mortality using Demographic and Health Surveys from thirty-two developing countries. We first examine conditional associations between violence faced by the mother and child mortality after controlling for observable confounders. Children of (ever) physically victimized mothers are 0.4, 0.7, and 1.0 pp more likely to die within thirty days, a year, and five years of being born. We find similar associations when examining violence experienced in the last twelve months, although these are no longer statistically significant. The association is statistically significant, and larger, if the mother experiences violence in the last twelve months often, rather than sometimes. Violence is significantly associated with pregnancy loss, suggesting the true effect on mortality is larger than estimates based on live-births would suggest. We investigate robustness of associations to omitted variable bias, assessing the role of selection on unobservables to estimate lower bounds on the true effect. These continue to indicate economically meaningful positive effects, suggesting selection on unobservables would need to be 2.4–3 times that of selection on observables to nullify the estimated effect. We provide evidence that maternal smoking and breastfeeding practices are mediators in the relationship between domestic violence and child mortality.     

How much does tax erode fund excess returns?

We model the tax drag from active fund management based on reported monthly holdings of active equity funds. Tax drag erodes 65 percent of the 0.74 percent excess return in Broad Market funds, but only 21 percent of the 1.80 percent excess return in Small-Cap funds for Australian superannuation (pension) fund investors. Tax drag varies with investment style; market state, which is most detrimental during bull markets; and fund turnover. For high-income individual investors, tax drag is exacerbated to the extent that active management only generates meaningful after-tax excess return for Small-Cap funds of certain styles.     

Making judgment calls. The ultimate act of leadership

According to the traditional view, judgment is an event: You make a decision and then move on. Yet Tichy, of the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business, and Bennis, of the University of Southern California's Marshall School of Business, found that good leadership judgment occurs not in a single moment but throughout a process. From their research into the complex phenomenon of leadership judgment, the authors also found that most important judgment calls reside in one of three domains: people, strategy, and crisis. Understanding the essence of leadership judgment is crucial. A leader's calls determine an organization's success or failure and deliver the verdict on his or her career. The first phase of the judgment process is preparation--identifying and framing the issue that demands a decision and aligning and mobilizing key stakeholders. Second is the call itself, And third is acting on the call, learning and adjusting along the way. Good leaders use a "story line"--an articulation of a company's identity, direction, and values--to inform their actions throughout the judgment process. Boeing CEO Jim McNerney, for instance, focused on a story line of Boeing as a world-class competitor and ethical leader to make a judgment call that launched the company's recovery from a string of ethical crises. Good leaders also take advantage of "redo loops" throughout the process, reconsidering the parameters of the decision, relabeling the problem, and redefining the goal in a way that more and more people can accept. Procter & Gamble's A.G. Lafley and Best Buy's Brad Anderson have both used redo loops--in preparation and execution, respectively--to strengthen not only support for their calls but also the outcomes.