Information Entropy-Based Housing Spatiotemporal Dependence

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - In the existing housing literature, there has been no academic consensus on how to combine the spatial dependence and the temporal dependence...     

Further Mining the Predictability of Moving Averages: Evidence from the US Stock Market

Most studies on the predictability of moving average (MA) technical analysis use the discrete (buy/sell) trading recommendations. However, it is possibly incomplete or unreliable to explore the predictability of MA by only employing its generated trading signals. To further explore the forecastability of MA, we study its measurable impact on the stock market returns by using a conventional predictive regression framework. Our empirical study on the US stock market with respect to more detailed price information finds, (i) that the proposed predictor, MADP (MA based on daily prices) shows significant predictability in‐ and out‐of‐sample, and significantly outperforms the historical average (HA) benchmark as well as the MA based on monthly prices, (ii) that the predictability of MADP centers on the short‐term lags (within the most recent 10 days) and disappears when lags are beyond 20 days, and (iii) that the economic evaluation of the portfolios based on trading strategies confirms the superior performance of MADP with short‐term lags against the benchmark even though considering transaction costs.     

Costly Information Disclosure in Oligopoly

We examine the effect of competition on the incentive of firms to disclose quality to consumers before trade when information disclosure is not costless. We demonstrate that no firm will disclose information in the limit, no matter how small the disclosure cost is; that is, the market outcome converges to complete concealment of information as the number of competing firms becomes larger. Nonetheless, it can be shown that under a mild condition, the equilibrium amount of information disclosure is socially excessive for any number of firms, so discouraging information disclosure by levying a tax may increase social welfare.     

The saving–investment correlation puzzle is still a puzzle

A number of simulation studies claim to have solved the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle by demonstrating that a high time-series correlation between saving and investment naturally arises from business cycle shocks. This paper uses panel data of saving and investment controlled for business cycle shocks to empirically test the significance of cyclical shocks — productivity, fiscal and the terms of trade shocks — in explaining a high saving–investment correlation. The estimation results reveal that conventional aggregate shocks only partially explain the high saving–investment correlation. Moreover, country differences in the size of the GNP and the non-traded sector do not significantly affect the saving–investment correlation. The saving–investment correlation puzzle remains a puzzle after all.     

Fiscal decentralization, revenue and expenditure assignments, and growth in China

Theory suggests that a close match between revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels benefits allocative efficiency, and hence economic growth. That is, a convergence of revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels of government should, according to the theory, be positively associated with a higher growth rate. In the case of China, this paper shows, divergence, rather than convergence, in revenue and expenditures at the sub-national level of government is associated with higher rates of growth. A panel dataset for 30 provinces in China is used to examine the relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth over two phases of fiscal decentralization in China: (1) 1979–1993 under the fiscal contract system, and (2) 1994–1999 under the tax assignment system. The seeming contradiction between the theory and evidence in the China case is reconciled by taking into account the institutional arrangements that prevailed during the two phases of fiscal decentralization, in particular the inconsistency between the assumptions of the theory of fiscal decentralization and the institutional reality of China.     

苏南、苏中和苏北对外开放度与经济增长关系的实证分析

一个国家或地区的经济开放程度涉及很多方面，如贸易国际化、资本国际化、劳动力跨国流动、技术引进和输出等。基于操作上简便易行、指标上具有可比性和连续性、资料易于搜集和量化等原则，本文拟选择出口额、实际利用外商直接投资额与GDP建立对外开放度这一指标。通常情况下，有些学者还会考虑国际投资开放度这个指标，但是．在计划计算苏南、苏中及苏北的国际投资开放度这一指标时发现：一方面由于统计资料的限制．另一方面由于苏南、苏中及苏北的对外投资数额很小，     

东北亚能源合作的期待效果与中国的作用

20世纪80、90年代一度稳定的国际石油价格,自2004年起呈上升趋势,维持了历史上最高纪录。国际油价以迪拜油为基准,2003年每桶平均26.8美元,而2004年高达33.64美元,比上年增长25.6%,直至2005年第三季度为止平均价格比2004年增长了64.8%。国际油价的暴涨源于中东产油国的动荡不安,储蓄及美元贬值而引起的投机资金大量地流入世界石油市场及由台风引起的美国石油设施的破坏等因素。固然存在这些原因,但是,最根本的原因还在于世界石油市场供给不足,即目前世界石油生产及炼油能力还属于停滞阶段,但对石油的需要却在暴涨。这种供给不足的情况短期内…     

第四方物流的经营与发展

我国加入WTO后，国外物流企业进入中国物流市场，将给我国物流业带来发展机遇，也带来竞争压力，因此．我国物流企业必须运用现代物流理念，加快发展，建设高标准、高质量的物流体系。本文就是希望通过时第四方物流这一新兴物流理念的研究探讨，找出能推进我国物流业的发展思路。     

城市房屋拆迁中的公共利益在程序法上的界定——兼评《城市房屋拆迁管理条例》第十六条

公共利益内涵在立法上的缺失,造成大量个人利益被侵犯的案例,在城市房屋拆迁中尤其突出。本文通过探讨如何从程序上赋予受公共利益影响者参与对公共利益内涵的确定以及在个人利益受到侵犯时给予司法救济的途径的问题,试图从法律程序上限制政府对公共利益的滥用,并最大程度地维护公民的个人利益,以此暂时回避对公共利益内涵问题的探讨。