A systems approach to policy analysis and development planning: Construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans

In this study, we propose a new model for systems analysis ‘of’ policy and systems analysis ‘for’ policy with the example of construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans.Our proposed model—integrated development management model (IDMM)—is conceptually based on the principles of systems thinking and integrated management approach.We present and discuss the results of our work in which we extracted all construction-related policies and strategies from eight 5-year development plans and analyzed them using the IDMM. In the light of the analyses, we give several answers to the question: “Why did the development plans fail to meet their targets in Turkey?” We propose that any development plan has to have claritas-unitas-integritas-consonantia between the management levels (normative, strategic, and operational) and components (goals, structures, and behavior) of IDMM.The paper is the first work that brings the concepts of development planning and foresight together. In a complementary stance, the time of integrating foresight and development planning has come.     

Consumer reactions to round numbers in brand names

This research shows that round numbers (e.g., 10, 50, 100) are strongly associated with completeness perceptions and consumers view them as thresholds for reaching certain completeness levels. In nine empirical studies, we demonstrate that round numbers in brand names, i.e., Round Alphanumeric Brand names (RABs) are overrepresented due to their strong association with product completeness. We find that RABs lead to favorable product evaluations and increased preferences. We examine alternative explanations based on other number properties including magnitude, divisibility, popularity, and familiarity and show that the effects of RABs on consumer responses are only mediated by the perception of product completeness.     

Modeling Consumer Responses to a Vignette Television Commercial Drama for a Vacation Resort

This project involved the formulation and testing of a model the cognitive and affective responses to a vignette television commercial drama for a vacation resort. Results indicate that response to the commercial was affective in nature with sympathy, empathy, and attitude toward the ad mediating the influences of verisimilitude and homophily on attitude toward the brand. Results suggest that to effectively promote tourism services a commercial's production value and realism must be high to produce sufficient verisimilitude. Also the behaviors and appearance of the actors chosen for the commercial should match those of the intended target audience in order to produce sufficient homophily.     

Growing with the market: How changing conditions during market growth affect formation and evolution of interfirm ties

Research Summary: Market conditions are known to matter for firm performance and growth. This study explores how changing levels of uncertainty and competition affect interfirm ties of entrepreneurial firms as markets transition from nascent to growth stage. Tracing six entrepreneurial game publishers during the growth stage of the U.S. wireless gaming market, the findings reveal that in a growth stage market, as uncertainty decreases, certain ties of entrepreneurial firms are terminated. First, existing partners may cut ties and become competitors after entering the market directly. This is a “winner's curse” as more successful firms are more likely to entice their partners to enter the market directly. Second, ties may be terminated as prominent firms that are “overwhelmed” with too many partners cut ties with low to mediocre performance, while their remaining partners enter a positive spiral of tie strength and performance. Finally, as uncertainty decreases, new firms may enter the market as competitors to prominent firms. While entrepreneurial firms with high‐ and low‐performing ties to prominent partners may find ties with these new entrants attractive, those with mediocre ties to few prominent partners find this move too risky and wait for a first mover to legitimate it. Overall, the findings show that changing levels of uncertainty and competition in growth stage markets can have different consequences for firms due to heterogeneity in their ties and power relative to partners. The findings provide several contributions to literature regarding the relationship among interfirm ties, firm performance, and market evolution. Managerial Summary: Based on interviews at six entrepreneurial game publishers in the United States and their partners, this study shows how changing levels of uncertainty and competition in growing markets can have different consequences for firms based on the different types of alliances in their portfolio and their power relative to partners. The findings highlight the importance of managing partners differently based on alliance type and goal of the partner. They advocate remaining flexible in alliance management as information asymmetries, intentions and bargaining power of partners can change and lead to abrupt alliance dissolution. They show that alliance portfolio management goes beyond a firm's capability of managing individual alliances, and provide a tool for managers to evaluate their alliance portfolios and take the necessary precautions.     

Electronic medical record use and efficiency: A DEA and windows analysis of hospitals

We use data envelopment analysis (DEA) to examine the relationship between hospital electronic medical record (EMR) use and efficiency in a national sample of acute care hospitals. Data sources include the American Hospital Association (AHA), Health Information Management Systems Society (HIMSS), and Case Mix Index. Using two research approaches including a retrospective, cross-sectional design and a first differencing repeated measures design, we find limited evidence that EMRs can improve hospital efficiency. Small hospitals may benefit in the area of efficiency through EMR use, but medium and large hospitals generally do not demonstrate such a difference. Likewise, there does not appear to be a significant increase in efficiency over time associated with EMRs when compared to the efficiency of hospitals without such documentation.     

Reducing the democratic deficit in institutional foresight programmes: A case for critical systems thinking in nanotechnology

The democratic deficit (the ‘deficit’ hereafter) in present institutional Foresight (‘Foresight’ hereafter) lies in its participation regime. In this paper practical ways to reduce the deficit are proposed that ought to increase the responsiveness of Foresight programmes to society's values, concerns and expectations. The existence of the deficit is examined placing ever more emphasis on the need for the active participation by a balanced but wide spread of stakeholders who will help to shape the future of society through the practical scheme proposed. The notions of ‘situations’ and Critical Systems Heuristics (CSH) are combined into a metaphor to suggest how the deficit in Foresight might be reduced. The purpose is to ensure, as far as that is possible, that the process of participation is genuine, inclusive and effective: practical steps toward this are suggested. The subjective nature of the metaphors assists the interpretation of these suggestions. The notion of ‘situations’ and Critical Systems Heuristics (CSH) represents an attempt to provide a metaphorical foundation for inclusive Foresight. At their core, ‘situations’ and CSH consider that problem definitions, proposals for improvement, and evaluations of outcomes depend on prior judgements about the relevant system. The resulting framework that emerges from CSH is a set of boundary concepts usable as a checklist of critical boundary questions. The checklist may be grouped under four issues relating to sources of: (i) motivation, (ii) power, (iii) knowledge, and (iv) legitimization.The current paper discusses the application of the ‘situation’ cum CSH metaphor for the case of nano-science, nano-technology and nano-artifacts that are being widely adopted in areas such as materials, ICTs, and medicine. As a result of the growing interest for nano-field, nano-artifacts are now reaching the consumer markets within a large number of branches. On the other hand there is a growing scepticism about the nano-field regarding the environmental and health risks of nano-artifacts along with the ethical and legal issues arising as a result of the widespread use of these products. A number of processes have been designed and implemented concerning the legal, ethical and social impacts of nano-sciences, -technologies, and -artifacts. The paper suggests that inclusive Foresight, reinforced with the principles of CSH, can be of use in the nano-field providing wider stakeholder representation during the research and development processes. Such processes will contribute to the development of more socially and environmentally responsive nano-artifacts.     

Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production

Roadmapping and scenarios are two widely used futures techniques which help R&D managers set priorities for research. These techniques are combined in a Foresight exercise assessing development of clean production in metal manufacturing, drawing on the European CLEANPROD project. The aim of the project is to develop a set of roadmaps for metal processing R&D to achieve breakthrough sustainability — “clean production”.Scenarios, a frequently used Foresight method, are used to set the context for the exercise, inform the design of technology roadmaps and influence the wider policy context. Roadmaps are developed for three process areas of metal manufacture - surface preparation, machining and coating - on four levels including long run visions up to 2020, interim targets up to 2015, key R&D areas and specific project topics. Roadmaps are appraised in the light of alternative scenarios on the future of manufacturing. Promoting sustainability highlights gaps in a “business as usual” roadmap, suggesting a different portfolio of research projects. A revised overall scenario is used to shape public policy.R&D teams usually adopt one particular methodology to support resource allocation. However joint use of futures techniques helps if there is uncertainty over competing alternative technologies. Roadmapping often focuses on a single future. Scenario building as a Foresight technique introduces “multiple futures” thinking.     

Vision 2023: Turkey's national Technology Foresight Program: A contextualist analysis and discussion

Likewise many other developed and developing countries, a national Technology Foresight Program was carried out in Turkey under the name of Vision 2023. This paper analyzes and discusses the Vision 2023 Technology Foresight Program from a contextualist perspective. The contextualist perspective suggests relationships between the context, content and process of change; and thus proposes that any change activity should be designed, organized and implemented by considering these relationships. This viewpoint is seen as a necessary condition for the achievement of change in organizations and society. In this respect, the Vision 2023 Program is considered in its own national and organizational contexts by discussing (i) how the factors in these contexts affected particular decisions taken on the content and approaches adopted in the process and (ii) how problems emerged when these relationships were dismissed. Through the analysis, the paper suggests that a Foresight program should be organized, designed and practised by considering the effects of the external contexts (e.g. national, regional and/or corporate contexts) and structural and behavioral factors stemming from these different context levels along with the nature of the issue being worked on, which constitute the content of the exercise.     

How reviewers’ use of profanity affects perceived usefulness of online reviews

This research explores the effects of profanity on perceptions of online reviews’ usefulness. Based on the prior research that described asymmetric attribution effects, we predict that when consumers see profanity in an online review, their reactions differ depending on the valence of the review. Specifically, when profanity is used in a negative review, it should reduce review usefulness because of decreased perceived reviewer objectivity. Among positive reviews, profanity increases review usefulness through greater perceived reviewer credibility. Through analysis of Yelp data, we show that the effect of profanity on usefulness depends on review valence. Experimentally, we demonstrate the opposing mediating effects of perceived objectivity and credibility on the usefulness of the review.     

REIT Debt Pricing and Ownership Structure

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - We show that ownership by institutional investors with increased incentives to monitor decreases the cost of both public and private debt in the...