Risk preferences under acute stress

Many important decisions are made under stress and they often involve risky alternatives. There has been ample evidence that stress influences decision making, but still very little is known about whether individual attitudes to risk change with exposure to acute stress. To directly evaluate the causal effect of psychosocial stress on risk attitudes, we adopt an experimental approach in which we randomly expose participants to a stressor in the form of a standard laboratory stress-induction procedure: the Trier Social Stress Test for Groups. Risk preferences are elicited using a multiple price list format that has been previously shown to predict risk-oriented behavior out of the laboratory. Using three different measures (salivary cortisol levels, heart rate and multidimensional mood questionnaire scores), we show that stress was successfully induced on the treatment group. Our main result is that for men, the exposure to a stressor (intention-to-treat effect, ITT) and the exogenously induced psychosocial stress (the average treatment effect on the treated, ATT) significantly increase risk aversion when controlling for their personal characteristics. The estimated treatment difference in certainty equivalents is equivalent to 69 % (ITT) and 89 % (ATT) of the gender-difference in the control group. The effect on women goes in the same direction, but is weaker and insignificant.     

Do casinos pay their customers to become risk-averse? Revising the house money effect in a field experiment

The house money effect predicts that individuals show increased risk-seeking behavior in the presence of prior windfall gains. Although the effect’s existence is widely accepted, experimental studies that compare individuals’ risk-taking behavior using house money to individuals’ risk-taking behavior using their own money produce contradictory results. This experimental field study analyzes the gambling behavior of 917 casino customers who face real losses. We find that customers who received free play at the entrance showed not higher but significantly lower levels of risk-taking behavior during their casino visit, expressed through lower average wagers. This study thus provides field evidence against the house money effect. Moreover, as a result of lower levels of risk seeking, endowed customers yield better economic results in the form of smaller own-money losses when leaving the casino.     

Is time-variant information stickiness state-dependent?

This paper estimates information stickiness with regard to inflation expectations in the United States and the Eurozone for the 1981/06–2015/12 and 1998/Q4–2015/Q2 periods, respectively, and further investigates whether such information stickiness is state-dependent. Based on a bootstrap sub-sample rolling-window estimation, we find that information stickiness varies over time, which contradicts the strict time dependency implied under sticky-information theory. We provide evidence that information stickiness depends on inflation volatility, which indicates that information stickiness is state-dependent and that it has a time trend. Using a threshold model, we estimate structural changes in the state-dependence and time-trend of information stickiness. The results show that information stickiness has been more dependent on inflation volatility and has had a higher time-trend in both regions following the 2008 financial crisis.     

Regulatory arbitrage and the FERC rate settlement process

We demonstrate that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) regulatory procedures for natural gas pipelines, specifically its rate-refund policy, induces regulatory arbitrage that leads to economic distortions. Specifically, we demonstrate that the rate refund policy causes pipelines effectively to “extort” ratepayers through the addition of economically inefficient capital investment, akin to “gold-plating” investments. We estimate the potential magnitude of this arbitrage impact on ratepayers to be between $400 and $700 million annually. Counterintuitively, however, we demonstrate that the presence of this arbitrage opportunity leads to underinvestment in pipeline capacity, thus negating one of the principal purposes of rate regulation. We further demonstrate that FERC could easily eliminate this regulatory arbitrage by setting the refund interest rate to the pipeline’s as-filed weighted average cost of capital.     

Dynamic coordinating non-equilibrium

Neo-Walrasian conceptualizations and DSGE models are incompatible with the emergence of coordination and discoordination in economic activity. While many conceptualizations stemming from the Austrian tradition are generally consistent with these fundamental problems, their process driven approach is hampered by the use of equilibrium constructs. This paper argues for the adoption of formal models that avoid this problem by addressing the following questions. Why should Austrian macroeconomists model? Where do models fit in with respect to pure and applied theory? How to model without equilibrium? To answer this final question I present a structure that aids in the construction and communication of such models.     

Consumer perception,information provision,and regulation of insurance markets

Available evidence shows that consumers overinsure against modest risks. For instance, a majority of consumers tend to choose too low a level of deductible for homeowners insurance and automobile insurance, and purchase excessive warranties for electronics and other durable products such as automobiles and furniture. The analysis demonstrates that overinsurance decreases consumer welfare and increases insurers’ profits. This tendency of overinsurance stems from lack of information about the probability and magnitude of loss, and it calls for policies that require insurers or third-party organizations to provide more, albeit not perfect, information and data for consumers before they make insurance-purchase decisions. The implications of the analysis for other financial products such as stocks and deposits are discussed.     

Testing the Influence of Substitute Sites in Nature Valuation by Using Spatial Discounting Factors

This paper investigates the effect of nearby nature substitute sites on preferences for nature restoration. Contrary to prior studies, we use a respondent-centric approach to control for substitute sites. We assess each respondent-specific spatial context by computing densities of nature substitute sites within various ranges from each respondent’s home. This approach considers the use and non-use values of nature together. Data from three similar discrete choice experiments carried out in Flanders (Belgium) are compared. Different spatial discounting factors are tested to explore how the substitution effect behaves with regard to distance. Latent class analyses are performed to account for preference heterogeneity among respondents. We observe divergent behaviours across groups of respondents. The “distance-to-substitutes” affects how respondents gauge substitute sites. We find a significant influence of the squared average buffer distance but this effect varies in sign across case studies and classes of respondents. Our results demonstrate that individual-specific GIS data can significantly improve the representation of the spatial context and the transferability of value functions. However, the roles played by preference heterogeneity and nature perception on respondents’ capacity to value nature still deserves further attention in future research.     

Happiness,income and poverty

There is considerable evidence from a variety of sources to suggest that well-being is a function of relative income. These findings have been used to explain the Easterlin Paradox, whereby a rise in income for all does not lead to a rise in average happiness in a country (even though the cross section relationship between income and happiness is positive). This relativity of utility has led to calls for policy to focus away from GDP. I here first discuss some of the evidence that well-being is indeed relative in income, but then consider two relatively little-analysed issues to suggest that there may continue to be a role for GDP per capita in happiness-based policy: the inequality of subjective well-being, and the specific case of those in income poverty.