Two-stage rank estimation of quantile index models

This paper estimates a class of models which satisfy a monotonicity condition on the conditional quantile function of the response variable. This class includes as a special case the monotonic transformation model with the error term satisfying a conditional quantile restriction, thus allowing for very general forms of conditional heteroscedasticity. A two-stage approach is adopted to estimate the relevant parameters. In the first stage the conditional quantile function is estimated nonparametrically by the local polynomial estimator discussed in Chaudhuri (Journal of Multivariate Analysis 39 (1991a) 246–269; Annals of Statistics 19 (1991b) 760–777) and Cavanagh (1996, Preprint). In the second stage, the monotonicity of the quantile function is exploited to estimate the parameters of interest by maximizing a rank-based objective function. The proposed estimator is shown to have desirable asymptotic properties and can then also be used for dimensionality reduction or to estimate the unknown structural function in the context of a transformation model.     

Ethnic groups and the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson trade model

Summary In this paper, we report a mode of the Harris-Todaro variety in which the labor force is composed of distinct and easily identifiable ethnic groups and in which capital is intersectorally mobile. We extend the central theorems of Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson trade theory to our model and also relate our results to other work.This work was conceived over several visits to The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics and finished at Berkeley where it was first presented at Professor Bardhan's Workshop in Development Economics. I am grateful to Professor Bardhan and to Director Naqvi and other Officers of the Institute for their hospitality and interest. I am also grateful to Naeem Siddiqui and Ray Reizman for several useful conversations; to S. Broca for many provocative comments on the HOS trade model; and, in particular, to one of three anonymous referees for her/his careful reading and detailed comments.     

Price stickiness, trend inflation, and output dynamics: a cross‐country analysis

Abstract.  Sticky price models based on menu costs predict that countries with high trend inflation should have (i) smaller impact effects of demand shocks on output and (ii) less persistent output fluctuations, relative to low‐trend inflation countries. These predictions are tested, controlling for changes in trend inflation, using a country‐specific approach. The results do not support the second prediction. That prediction is also not robust to a modified measure of trend inflation that excludes episodes of hyperinflation. These findings suggest that while price stickiness is important for understanding short‐run impact effects, real propagation mechanisms may drive persistence in output fluctuations.     

Out-of-sample forecasting of the Canadian unemployment rates using univariate models

This article investigates the out-of-sample forecasting performance of some linear and nonlinear univariate time series models on the monthly seasonally adjusted Canadian unemployment rates during the 1980–2013 period. The findings reveal that nonlinear time series models better capture the asymmetry present in the unemployment rate series at short and long forecast horizons.     

Natural gas,trade and sustainable growth: empirical evidence from the top gas consumers of the developing world

Natural gas is the key non-renewable source of energy for a low-carbon economy. The research applies heterogeneous panel techniques to investigate the impact of natural gas consumption on economic growth across a panel of top 15 natural gas consumers of the developing world. We establish long-run dynamics with cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity across the sample countries. The long-run output elasticities suggest that the natural gas consumption and trade variables have significant positive effect on the output in a panel of developing economies. Further, we establish feedback relationship among gas consumption, output and trade in the short-run. Given the significance of natural gas as the low-emission source of energy, we suggest governments and policy advisers of these major natural gas consumers to focus on developing pipeline infrastructure for adequate supply, reforming natural gas sector with a competitive price structure to combat excess demand in individual natural gas market. With trade integration, majority of these countries need to incorporate these initiatives to improve the technologies such as combined cycle power plant technology and value-added chemical production technology to achieve sustainable economic growth.     

Optimal Urban Employment Policies: Notes on Calvo and Quibria

We show that Quibria's insightful observation on the efficacy of urban policy in a model with an urban trade union and an urban informal sector holds, but with a revenue-neutral employment tax-subsidy combination levied on the urban employer. We also draw the relevance of the generalized Harris–Todaro model in providing intuition for the validity of this surprising result.     

A note on the gender reservation wage gap in developing countries

This is the first paper to document the existence of a gender reservation wage gap in developing countries. We find a 22.6% gender reservation wage gap, a gap that is much larger than current estimates for developed countries. Assets play the largest role in closing this gap, whereas adult height widens the gap among the poor.     

A bottom-up re-estimation of global fisheries subsidies

Using a recently developed database of fisheries subsidies for 148 maritime countries spanning 1989 to the present, total fisheries subsidies for the year 2003 is computed. A key feature of our estimation approach is that it explicitly deals with missing data from official sources, and includes estimates of subsidies to developing country fisheries. Our analysis suggests that global fisheries subsidies for 2003 are between US25 and 29 billion, which is higher than an earlier World Bank estimate of between US 25 and 29 billion, which is higher than an earlier World Bank estimate of between US 14–20 billion. This new estimate is lower than our 2000 global subsidies estimate of US$ 30–34 billion. We find that fuel subsidies compose about 15–30% of total global fishing subsidies, and that capacity enhancing subsidies sum to US$ 30–34 billion. We find that fuel subsidies compose about 15–30% of total global fishing subsidies, and that capacity enhancing subsidies sum to US 16 billion or about 60% of the total. These results imply that the global community is paying the fishing industry billions each year to continue fishing even when it would not be profitable otherwise—effectively funding the over-exploitation of marine resources.     

Cost consequence analysis of use of a balloon expandable vascular access system and standard vascular sheath for transcatheter aortic valve implantation

Abstract

Background: Vascular complications are an important complication of transcatheter aortic valve implantation and are associated with increased morbidity and mortality as well as cost. The Solopath device is an expandable vascular access system that has previously been shown to be associated with lower rates of vascular complications. This study sought to evaluate the impact of the use of this system on vascular complications and costs in a decision model analysis.

Methods: A cost-consequence analysis was undertaken utilizing event rate data from the PARTNER trials and a published retrospective analysis of the Solopath device. The decision model estimated costs and benefits in a hypothetical cohort of patients with aortic stenosis undergoing TAVI using either a standard sheath or Solopath. The modeled analysis compared the occurrence of vascular complications and mortality at 30 days and 1 year using TreeAge Pro.

Results: The decision model demonstrated that use of the Solopath sheath resulted in 36 fewer major vascular complications, three fewer deaths at 30 days, and five fewer deaths at 1 year, resulting in a discounted cost savings of $846 CDN. Results were sensitive to decreasing rates of vascular complications with newer generation devices, however maintained modest cost-savings.

Conclusions: Reduction in vascular complications is an important part of improving care for TAVI patients. The Solopath vascular access device offers an alternative to standard sheaths with a potential reduction in complications and cost-savings.