The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and the Volatility of Exchange Rates after the Asian Crisis: A Counterfactual Analysis

The objective of this paper is to carry out a counterfactual analysis of the impact of alternative exchange rate regimes on the volatility of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) and the bilateral rate against the US dollar for nine East Asian countries after the Asian financial crisis. Our hypothetical regimes include a unilateral basket peg (UBP), a common basket peg (CBP) and a hard peg against the dollar. We find that a UBP would minimise effective exchange rate volatility for all countries and provides the highest regime gains compared to actual. Although the gains for a CBP are always less than those for a UBP, the absolute differences between the two regimes appear to be small. In terms of the bilateral relationship against the dollar, the gains from a UBP or CBP could be quite significant for the non‐dollar peggers since a fall in effective instability would be accompanied by a fall in bilateral instability.     

My Way or High Way? New relationship of employer/employee and their respective ways of survival

Early in the gestation stage of the new labor contract law, the intensive debates sparked by worries and doubts prevailed, and the event of Huawei Group forcing their employees to re-apply for their jobs made this controversy reach fever pitch. When it came into effect on 1st January, 2008, confusions still bothered people of all sides: someone were on thorns about the increased cost and found wry ways to digest it, and someone were scramble to their rights and looked for shortcut to get it, etc. in particular, textile industry featuring labor-intensive will increase 20% on average in terms of cost, so how to cushion the blow and reverse adversity become prominent, what’s more, we should emancipate our mind to create profits rather than make ourselves balky with losses. Brand-building, technology application as well as expanding business abroad where with relatively cheap cost, etc, all of which can be utilized. In fact, launch of new labor contract law coupled with other polices home and aboard and materials cost increment lift the threshold of Chinese textile industry and rendered a new shuffling, so that the conception of "survival of the fittest" becomes the last straw we should grasp……     

A Bayesian Multiple Comparison Procedure for Order-Restricted Mixed Models

A Bayesian hierarchical mixed model is developed for multiple comparisons under a simple order restriction. The model facilitates inferences on the successive differences of the population means, for which we choose independent prior distributions that are mixtures of an exponential distribution and a discrete distribution with its entire mass at zero. We employ Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to obtain parameter estimates and estimates of the posterior probabilities that any two of the means are equal. The latter estimates allow one both to determine if any two means are significantly different and to test the homogeneity of all of the means. We investigate the performance of the model-based inferences with simulated data sets, focusing on parameter estimation and successive-mean comparisons using posterior probabilities. We then illustrate the utility of the model in an application based on data from a study designed to reduce lead blood concentrations in children with elevated levels. Our results show that the proposed hierarchical model can effectively unify parameter estimation, tests of hypotheses and multiple comparisons in one setting.     

外国石油公司动态

(2009年11月) 投资与合作 塞尔维亚天然气公司和Gazprom将组建合资公司 塞尔维亚国家天然气公司(Srbijagas)和俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)将组建一家合资公司来共同建造塞尔维亚境内段的南流管道.Gazprom和Srbijagas将分别拥有合资公司51%和49%的股份.     

Five Basic Opinions to Promote Fast and Healthy Development of the Capital Market

Shang Fulin, chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, wrote and released an article titled "Report on China Economy" and pointed out that the country has reached the target of completing reform on the longtime problem about the different privileges of the interest groups of state shares, corporate shares and common shares. Under this new arrangement, he put forward five basic opinions to promote healthy and fast development of China capital market.     

从利益相关者角度看盈余管理动因

企业是各利益相关者之间合作投资的一个项目,各利益相关者都希望从其中获得更多的回报,会计盈余信息影响以会计盈余为基础的契约的执行,对利益相关者的决策具有重要影响,对企业拥有信息优势和实质控制权的一方或多方利益相关者有可能单独或合谋实施盈余管理,谋求自身利益的最大化.     

中国水产教育事业的摇篮：上海水产大学

上海水产大学是一所具有90多年悠久历史和光荣传统的高等学校，以水产，海洋，食品，渔业经济与渔业管理等学科为主，农，理，工，经，文，管等学科协调发展的多学科大学。学校前身是1912年由著名民族实业家，教育家张謇，著名教育家黄炎培等发起创立的江苏省水产学校（俗称吴淞水产学校），     

中国人口老龄化对人身保险市场发展的影响分析——基于省际面板数据的经验分析

本文基于我国30个省、市、自治区(除西藏外)1997年～2008年度面板数据,运用面板回归的计量分析方法,对中国老龄化背景下人身保险市场的发展情况进行了研究.中国人口老龄化的到来,为人身保险市场的发展既创造了机遇,也带来了挑战,本文经过反复的实验估计,认为老龄化对人身保险市场的推动作用要大于其阻碍作用,并且老龄化程度越...     

面向融通仓系统的物流企业选择优化研究

融通仓系统建立过程中的一个关键环节就是物流企业的选择,它直接关系到该系统能否稳定持续地运行。针对融通仓系统物流企业选择过程所面临的信息不完全性、复杂性、未确知性,本文引入修正熵权的未确知测度方法建立决策模型,该模型将专家确定的权重与熵权结合起来,得到综合考虑主客观因素的指标权重向量,从而提高权重确定的准确性和评价结果的可信度。最后通过案例分析论述了具体的应用过程,表明该模型的合理性和有效性,为融通仓系统物流企业的优化选择提供一套切实可行的方法。     

基于知识管理的企业技术创新集成网络模式

论述了基于知识管理的企业技术创新集成络模网式,指出知识管理的核心是知识集成与知识激活。分析建立了通过信息技术直接进行信息、知识和技术的积累、筛选、传递、共享和整合,使分散的专业知识转换为系统的、具体的知识的知识集成机制,以及使外界信息、知识在创新主体中传播、反射、折射,传输不同观点和意见,最后形成基于企业文化和人员素质之上的新创意的知识激活机制。具有紧密压缩的知识管理立体结构的集成络模网式,为企业技术创新信息化、网络化提供了存在的技术平台。